tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70970336049525950982024-03-13T09:52:49.127-05:00The Book of GormanThe Book of Gorman.
The internet's only Brewers blog since 1907.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14344163045009894571noreply@blogger.comBlogger122125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-47784984207816423152014-02-10T15:35:00.000-06:002014-02-11T09:59:21.731-06:00Deconstructing the Payroll With the K-Rod signing the Brewers' roster is essentially complete. I thought it would be interesting to see how the money is divided among the team's different roles. There will be some competition for the final two bullpen spots, but it shouldn't impact the payroll as all the in-house options will make approximately league minimum. It's also possible that the Brewers choose to go with Lyle Overbay instead of Juan Francisco. I'd be surprised (and a little disappointed) if that happened, so for now I'm going to ignore that possibility. I ran into a bit of an obstacle at first base and second base because the Brewers are going to, or at least they should, be using platoons at both positions. I decided to divide the salaries of Gennett, Weeks, Francisco, and Reynolds based on their roles. The strong sided platoon players would have two-thirds of their salaries go towards the starting position portion of the payroll and one-third toward the bench. The opposite would be true for the weak-sided platoon players where one-third of their salaries goes towards the starting position portion of the payroll and two-thirds goes towards the bench. <br />
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Here is the payroll breakdown:<br />
<br />
Starting Position Players: $38,233,333<br />
Bench Players: $11,116,667<br />
Starting Rotation: $37,925,000<br />
Bullpen: $9,100,000<br />
<br />
Starting Roles: $76,158,333<br />
Reserve Roles: $20,216,667<br />
<br />
Position Players: $49,350,000<br />
Pitchers: $47,025,000<br />
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Total: $96,375,000<br />
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Here is the breakdown of the payroll by percentage:<br />
<br />
Starting Position Players: 40%<br />
Bench Players: 11.5%<br />
Starting Rotation: 39.5%<br />
Bullpen: 9%<br />
<br />
Starting Roles: 79%<br />
Reserve Roles: 21%<br />
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Position Players: 51%<br />
Pitchers: 49%<br />
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Interestingly, the Brewers have pretty evenly distributed their payroll between pitchers and position players. It's not surprising to see the majority of the Brewers' payroll going to starting players. I might be surprised by seeing so much money spent on the bench, but I know that's only because the majority of Weeks' salary goes towards it. The thing that most stands out to me is the percent being spent on the bullpen. It seems low and to me that's a good thing. As we should all know by now, relievers are the most fungible asset on any given team. Bullpens are volatile and usually have a relatively high turnover rate so it's comforting to see so little of the Brewers' money going towards it. This is also an area where I see the Brewers getting a decent amount of surplus value. Of the money the Brewers are spending on pitching, 19% of it is going to the bullpen. Last year the Brewers gave 36% of their total innings pitched to the bullpen. Back in 2011 when they only used 6 different starting pitchers, they still gave 31% of their innings pitched to the bullpen. <br />
I wanted to deconstruct the payroll like this simply because I was curious about it. I'm not sure there is a right or wrong way to divide a team's payroll. It's a relative situation because a team could have a bunch of position players in starting roles that are making the league minimum. If that's the case, it would make sense that they'd be spending more on pitchers. To some extent this is what is going on with the Brewers. Aramis Ramiez, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gomez are the only starting position players making over $2 million dollars. Conversely, they have 3 starting pitchers making over $10 million. Next year, three of the highest paid (Ramirez, Weeks, Gallardo) players could be cut loose. Really I only see Weeks departing, but it'll be interesting to see how the payroll is doled out next year.Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-37895216942841043672014-02-07T17:21:00.001-06:002014-02-09T18:53:56.634-06:00Brewers sign K-Rod; Updated roster and payroll projectionsToday the Brewers announced they <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/244343271.html">signed Francisco Rodriguez </a>to a 1 year contract worth $3.25 million. The deal includes another $550,000 possible through incentives which would raise the total value to just under $4 million. Ignoring my personal and <a href="http://nypost.com/2010/08/13/slugger-k-rods-gal-fury/">moral </a> <a href="http://waukesha.patch.com/groups/police-and-fire/p/domestic-violence-charges-dropped-against-k-rod">reservations</a>, from a purely baseball perspective I think this is a fine deal. K-Rod was pretty awful in 2012 but that was due to a severe drop in his swinging strike rate from a career average around 12% to 7.9%. That resulted in a large increase in contact rate, from low to mid-70% the previous three years to 80.9%. Those numbers regressed towards norms in 2013. His swinging strike rate was 10.2% and his contact rate was 76.6%. To me this seems to suggest that while he's no longer an elite reliever, he isn't completely worthless. I think he's losing his edge a bit, and shouldn't be used in high leverage situations anymore, but outside of those he can probably be a perfectly capable middle reliever. I've seen plenty of people suggest that nearly $4 million is a big overpay, but I would disagree with that. In this market of increased salaries, the AAV seems to be in line with what middle relievers are getting. Then when one takes into account the deal is for only 1 year I think it actually starts to look pretty good. I suspect this is the last significant transaction of the offseason for the Brewers, so it's not like the money was going to be needed elsewhere. Oh yeah, in a corresponding move they have designated Donovan Hand for assignment to make room for K-Rod on the 40-man roster.<br />
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Here's is my updated roster and payroll projection:<br />
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C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)</div>
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BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*</div>
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1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)</div>
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BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****</div>
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2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*</div>
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BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)</div>
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3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)*******</div>
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BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*</div>
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SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*</div>
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LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*</div>
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CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)</div>
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OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*</div>
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RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)</div>
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SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)</div>
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RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*</div>
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SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)****</div>
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RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*</div>
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SP: Matt Garza ($11.5 MM)*****</div>
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RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)</div>
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SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*</div>
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RP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*</div>
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SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***</div>
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RP: Will Smith ($500 k)*</div>
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RP: Francisco Rodriguez ($3.8 MM)******</div>
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RP: Rob Wooten (500 k)*</div>
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Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">Cots Contracts</a>.</div>
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*League minimum is $500,000. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.</div>
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** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.</div>
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***Estrada's base salary is <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/424241931288207360">reportedly </a>$3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.</div>
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****J. Francisco's contracts <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/424242675441610752">reportedly </a>contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.</div>
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*****Garza's deal is for $12.5MM ea. year but $2 MM is deferred. Can make extra $1M w/incentives.</div>
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******K-Rod's base salary is $3.25 million with another $550,000 possible through incentives.</div>
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*******Ramirez's total salary for 2014 is actually $16 million, but $6 MM of it is deferred. </div>
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The total payroll comes to $96.375 million with no open roster spots. That includes all incentives, which equal $2.15 million, so the actual total could be less.</div>
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Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-62942865224186650892014-01-28T13:46:00.001-06:002014-01-28T19:30:10.267-06:00Garza's contract details; Updated payroll projection; Updated deferred installmentsToday the <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/242435211.html">specific details of Matt Garza's contract</a> came out. Previously I had believed Garza would receive $12.5 million because of <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/427589224439623680">this</a> tweet from Jon Heyman. While technically true (or in other words, wrong) it's been revealed that $2 million will be deferred from each of the 4 guaranteed years. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/">Cot's Contracts</a> lists that these payments ($2 million each) are to be made from 2018-2021. There are also performances bonuses at $500,000 for starting 30 games and another $500,000 for reaching 190 innings. The details regarding the vesting year have also been revealed and it's a bit convoluted. His option will vest 1. He starts 110 games in over the course of the four guaranteed contract years (2014-2017), 2. He isn't on the disabled list at the end of 2017, and 3. He pitches at least 115 innings in 2017. If the option does not vest, it becomes a team option. The Brewers can exercise that option for $5 million unless Garza spent 130 days on the DL in any 183 day period (full season) in which case the team option is for $1 million! With the complete details revealed I like this deal even more. The one caveat here is that there must have been something in Garza's physical exam that suggested a contract of this type was warranted. In other words, the Brewers believe an injury is a real risk. I think it's a risk worth taking.<br />
<br />
Now that we know Garza's contract includes deferred money I wanted to update both the payroll projection. <br />
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Updated Payroll: $93.075 million<br />
<br />
I also wanted to include Garza's money in the analysis of Brewers' deferred installments over the years. Lohse's <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/lohse-brewers-complete-33-million-3-deal-025131542--mlb.html">exact deferred payment installments</a> were also brought to my attention by a reader so I included those.<br />
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2016<o:p></o:p></div>
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2017<o:p></o:p></div>
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2018<o:p></o:p></div>
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2019<o:p></o:p></div>
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2020<o:p></o:p></div>
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2021<o:p></o:p></div>
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2022-31<o:p></o:p></div>
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Braun<o:p></o:p></div>
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$1.8 M<o:p></o:p></div>
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Ramirez<o:p></o:p></div>
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$3.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
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$3.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.25pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Lohse<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.15pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$3.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.25pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Garza<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.15pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.25pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Total<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.15pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$5.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$8.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 60.1pt;" valign="top" width="80"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$2.0 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
$1.8 M<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
For most of those years the deferred payments shouldn't matter too much. However 2017 and especially 2018 could be problematic. That is around the time when some of the Brewers' better prospects are expected to arrive at the majors, so perhaps that will help mitigate this issue. Still, they're running out of room to defer money in the near future.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-44696967783406868112014-01-27T19:37:00.000-06:002014-01-27T19:39:28.893-06:00How does the Brewers' 2014 rotation stack up to their best in recent memory? It's been a long time since I've endorsed a free agent signing by the Brewers, but I endorse the Garza signing. It's made the rotation quite a bit deeper than it has been in a while and given me reason to be excited for the season. This excitement and optimism has me wondering just how good things might be and naturally I began to think how this rotation compares to the best rotation the Brewers have had this century. I am of course talking about the 2011 rotation.<br />
That rotation consisted of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson. Marco Estrada also filled in on occasion. It's easy to look at the names in that rotation and dismiss the 2014 version as being anything but close. Zack Greinke is worlds better than the best pitcher on the current roster. But it's important to realize that we're not comparing potential. We know what the 2011 rotation did. So what we're really talking about is comparing the potential of the 2014 rotation with the actual performance of the 2011 rotation. <br />
The following are the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0">results</a> of that season: <br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Zack Greinke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">171.2 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.87 ERA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yovani Gallardo<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">207.1 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.52 ERA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Shaun Marcum<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">200.2 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.54 ERA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Randy Wolf<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">212.1 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.69 ERA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Chris Narveson <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">158.2 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">4.45 ERA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Marco Estrada<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">41.1 IP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.70 ERA</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<div>
That's a very good rotation, but maybe the most impressive thing about it is the fact that it only used 6 different pitchers. I have a hard time seeing that happen again, ever. It's also impressive to see 3 pitchers eclipse the 200 innings mark. If the 2011 rotation is clearly superior in any aspect it's there. The two other things that jumped out at me was how good Randy Wolf was (compared to my memory) and how Zack Greinke was just okay(compared to my memory).</div>
<div>
If we rearrange the ERAs from best to worst (disregarding Estrada's) we're talking about a rotation of: 3.52, 3.54, 3.69, 3.87, and 4.45. How close can the current rotation of Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta come to emulating that? The short and honest answer is "I don't know." However that would be a pretty lousy place to leave this article so let's look at a couple ways to answer the question. Here is the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=739,8173,3340,1118,7738">average</a> of the last three seasons for each pitcher in the current rotation:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Kyle Lohse<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
199.1 IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.19 ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.75 FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Matt Garza<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
152.1 IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.62 ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.54 FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Yovani Gallardo<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
197.1 IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.77 ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.80 FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Marco Estrada<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
119.2 IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.84 ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.61 FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Wily Peralta<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
106 IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.11 ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.07 FIP<span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Peralta's data only covers the last two seasons since that is as long as he has been in the majors. He pitched 183.1 innings in his first full season and there's no reason to believe can't pitch a similar number of innings in 2014. Estrada was only a starter for about 2 and a half seasons but he still hasn't been able to pitch a full season for health related reasons. Looking at the ERA and FIP it seems as though the current rotation's past performance isn't that far off from the actual results of the 2011 rotation. Take a look:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2011 Rotation ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2014 3 yr AVG ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2014 3 yr AVG FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.52 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.19 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.75<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.54 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.62 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.54<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.69 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.77 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.80<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.87 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.84 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.61<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.45 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.11 <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.07<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's important to recognize, however, that the 2014 rotation cannot be expected to cover as many innings as the 2011 rotation. I think Gallardo and Lohse can get close to 200 again. Peralta might end up somewhere between 180-200. The problem is with Garza and Estrada who have both had injury issues the last two years. Fortunately, the Brewers do have a number of depth options include Tyler Thornburg, Jimmy Nelson, Tom Gorzelanny, and Will Smith among others. You'll notice there is a large gap between Lohse's ERA and FIP. I believe that FIP tends to underrate low velocity, pitch to contact guys. Another example of that is Randy Wolf's 2011 season. While he had a 3.69 ERA, his FIP was 4.29. The point being, I'm comfortable saying Lohse is a guy who can be counted on to consistently outperform his FIP (he's not just getting lucky). The other thing I have to mention is Gallardo. It's unfortunate, but he's shown some negative trends over the last few years and that suggests his best days might be behind him. </div>
<div>
After taking a look at what the Brewers rotation has done in the past, I thought it would be interesting to see what they might be expected to do. I chose to take a look at what the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/">ZiPS</a> projection system thinks they'll do in 2014. Garza's signing came after FanGraphs released the Brewers ZiPS projections, but Dan Symborski <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/426420025113595904">tweeted </a>his individual projection. I like ZiPS more than other projection systems, but I take all of them with a grain of salt. They're never 100% accurate, which is an unfair expectation to begin with, so keep that in mind. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.0pt;" valign="top" width="157"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
ZiPS IP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
ZiPS ERA<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
ZiPS FIP<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Kyle Lohse<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.0pt;" valign="top" width="157"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
165<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.86<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.15<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Matt Garza<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.0pt;" valign="top" width="157"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
153<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.70<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Unavailable<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Yovani Gallardo<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
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185<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.88<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.80<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Marco Estrada<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.0pt;" valign="top" width="157"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
135<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.92<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.45pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3.83<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 124.1pt;" valign="top" width="165"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Wily Peralta<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.0pt;" valign="top" width="157"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
163<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.40<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 118.35pt;" valign="top" width="158"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
4.40<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
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<div>
It's striking how a big an issue ZiPS thinks innings are going to be for the Brewers. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lohse and Peralta exceed their projected innings totals by 20+ innings. If that's the case then the innings shouldn't be too far off from 2011. While it seems to think Gallardo will bounce back a bit, it also expects Lohse to falter a bit. I'm not sure what goes into ZiPS calculations, but I have to wonder if it's underrating Lohse in a similar way that FIP underrates him. It seems to think Garza, Estrada, and Peralta are going to be similar to their 2013 versions. Aside from the innings issue, the ZiPS evaluation of the Brewers rotation seems to be average or slightly below. We'll have to hope for better. </div>
<div>
Comparing the current rotation to the 2011 rotation is mostly just a fun thought experiment. It doesn't really matter which we'll look back on as better. But if there's any point in all this, it's that if the Brewers current rotation can come close to reproducing their actual performance over the last 3 seasons, they have a solid chance at emulating the production from the 2011 rotation. That is to say, they have a chance to be an above average, if not world beating, rotation. That would be quite the upgrade from the last two seasons when it was a decidedly below average rotation. Pair that with what I think is an elite offense and there is reason to be hopeful. I'm not suggesting they can win 96 games again. The Central has changed quite a lot and is arguably the toughest division in baseball. Winning the division should be considered out of reach, but if the rotation performs up to their potential I like their Wild Card chances.</div>
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Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-42366867044826402592014-01-26T18:23:00.004-06:002014-01-26T18:28:23.241-06:00Brewers sign Matt Garza/updated roster and payrollToday the Brewers signed Matt Garza to a four year <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/427526841990017024">contract</a> for $50 million with $4 million in performance bonuses. There is also a vesting option for a fifth year worth $13 million. He will <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/427589224439623680">reportedly</a> receive $12.5 million in each year of the 4 year contract. The signing likely pushes Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen which is probably for the best. I was interested to see how he'd fare given a full season in the rotation, but his skill set should play up in the pen. With the added depth in both the rotation and bullpen it's possible the Brewers are finished adding to their roster. I think it's likely they will still add one reliever though. Perhaps they'll now be more willing to consider a high risk/high reward guy like Joel Hanrahan or Ryan Madson.<br />
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C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****</div>
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2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)</div>
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3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)</div>
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BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*</div>
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SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*</div>
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LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*</div>
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CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*</div>
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RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)****</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Matt Garza ($13.5 MM)*****</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Will Smith ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Rob Wooten ($500k)*</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Donovan Hand (500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">Cots Contracts</a>.<br />
<div>
*League minimum is $500,000. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.<br />
** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.<br />
***Estrada's base salary is <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/424241931288207360">reportedly </a>$3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.<br />
****Francisco's contracts <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/424242675441610752">reportedly </a>contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.<br />
*****The incentive details are unknown at this time but he can make up to $1 million over his guaranteed $12.5</div>
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The Brewers gave Lyle Overbay a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training so it's possible he beats Francisco out for a platoon/bench spot. Unless they trade Weeks, and even if that happens, I have a hard time seeing them rostering all 3 of Reynolds, Francisco, and Overbay. That'll be something to watch. Wooten and Hand will also have competition for their spots in the bullpen, but I think this is pretty close to what the opening day roster will actually look like. I actually quite like this roster for the most part. It's not good enough to take the division, but I think one of the Wild Card spots is a distinct possibility. With zero roster spots open, as I have it, the total opening day payroll comes to approximately $95.075. Keep in mind that is if all players' incentives vest.</div>
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Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-25468201274985443992014-01-26T13:26:00.000-06:002014-01-26T13:26:22.071-06:00What would the Garza signing mean for the Brewers bullpen?<div class="MsoNormal">
I recently wrote about what Garza would do for the
Brewers. I’ve since realized I glossed
over a very important aspect. Garza’s
signing would drastically change the dynamic of the Brewers' bullpen, for the better.
Much like signing Garza displaces
starts from the worst candidate(s), it would also displace relief appearances
from the worst candidate(s). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Signing Garza would push Tyler Thornburg from the rotation
to the pen where his skills are better suited.
He’s a shorter pitcher and because of that he can sometimes have
problems getting a downward plane on his fastball. When he pitches up in the zone he becomes very
susceptible to home runs. That isn’t as
big a problem when hitters only get to see him once. His fastball should also be helped by a mile or two
increase in velocity. With his above
average curveball (and to a lesser extent his change-up) he could be a serious threat out of the pen. That's what would replace the worst bullpen candidate. That’s intriguing.</div>
<br />
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For most of the offseason it seemed likely the Brewers
would roll out a bullpen consisting of Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, Tom
Gorzelanny, Will Smith, Rob Wooten, Donovan Hand, and (in my opinion) an as yet
unsigned free agent. If Garza does sign,
we would have to include Thornburg in the mix.
I still think the Brewers would look for one free agent reliever. That would leave one spot for a number
of candidates (Wooten, Hand, Figaro, Duke, Wang, Olmsted, Goforth) to be used in mop-up. I think Wooten has a leg up on the
competition, but he is by no means a lock. Goforth is the best of the lot but the Brewers might choose to give him a half season or so experience at Triple-A, a level he's never pitched at before. However if he's pitching mostly in low leverage situations to begin the season it could help him make the transition from AA to MLB. It's a lot easier for relievers to make that jump than starters so it isn't unreasonable to say he has a shot. A bullpen with Henderson, Kintzler, Thornburg, Gorzelanny, Smith, and Wooten/Goforth has the potential to be dominant and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people. </div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-7193464108277899652014-01-24T22:06:00.000-06:002014-01-24T22:29:19.959-06:00What would signing Matt Garza mean for the Brewers?<div class="MsoNormal">
Early Thursday afternoon reports had the Brewers signing
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P">Matt Garza</a> to a 4 year $52 million dollar contract. Those reports proved to be premature as later
that night it was clarified that talks were still ongoing. No new information has surfaced as of yet so
I’ve had lots of time to think about what exactly Garza would mean for the Brewers. It’s not as simple as valuing the starts he
would make. We also have to consider the
starts other pitchers wouldn’t have. Fortunately
both of those aspects appear to be good things.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Garza isn’t an ace, not many pitchers are, but he is an above average starter. He has a career 3.84 ERA, 3.98 FIP. The last two seasons he struggled with injures, but in each of the four years prior he made 30+ starts. In those four years he threw 184, 203, 204, and 198 innings respectively. This suggests that if he's healthy, he's capable of throwing close to 200 innings. He has a 20% strikeout rate for his career and a 7.9% walk rate. Those rates also closely resemble his last 3
seasons so there is no sign of diminishing ability. He does have issues with home
runs. His slider is a plus pitch
and he has an above average fastball.
His curveball is somewhat lacking though and he has a show-me change-up. I would place his talent level somewhere
above Gallardo’s and below Lohse’s. A
lot of people have balked at the length of the contract citing the last two
years in which he dealt with injuries. I
understand the risk here, but the Brewers do have a top notch medical
staff. If they’ve given the green light either
they feel his injuries are in the past or are manageable. Whatever the issues have been, they haven’t
visibly diminished his ability. His
velocity has been <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P#pitchtype">consistent</a> his entire career and his plus pitches continue to
have <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P#pitchvalues">positive </a>run values (his FB had a negative value last year but that's because of a terrible second half in Texas and likely more noise than anything real). Even if he
does miss time, the innings he does provide should be quality. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By giving a rotation spot to Garza, the Brewers will be
displacing a number of innings they would have given to others. Outside the top four of Lohse, Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta the Brewers gave starts to 8 other pitchers. The best of those starts came from Tyler Thornburg. He made 7
starts and actually performed quite well. To be exact, in those 7 starts he put up a 1.47 ERA(1.1 fWAR). Despite that performance, he'll certainly be pushed to the bullpen if Garza signs. Thornburg fans need not despair though. No rotation stays healthy
all season long so he's still going to start some games. In that case, it’s not really his
starts that are being displaced. In 2013
the Brewers spread ~131 innings over 28 starts between Hiram Burgos, Alfredo Figaro,
Donovan Hand, Mike Fiers, and Johnny Hellweg.
They combined for a whopping <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0">-2.3 fWAR</a>. These
are the starts that Garza will be displacing.
For contrast, Garza pitched ~155 innings accumulating a 2.2 fWAR. In a fuzzy math sort of way, adding Garza is almost like
adding 4.5 fWAR. </div>
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That certainly doesn’t
put the Brewers in contention for the NL Central. However, it may just put them in the
conversation for one of the Wild Card spots.
They’ll still need Gallardo to reverse his trends or at least see actual
results closer to his FIP. In addition,
they’ll need to see improvement from Peralta.
If that happens and Estrada can stay healthy for a full season, it’s
entirely possible the Brewers could have five 3-win starting pitchers. That’s not elite, but that’s solidly above
average and with the potential the offense has it might be enough. Yes, that’s quite a few “ifs.” Still, it’s a few less ifs than a week
ago. Or at least it will be if the Brewers
actually sign Garza. If…ah hell let’s be
optimistic, WHEN that happens, I’m going to allow myself to be excited and a
little (cautiously) optimistic about 2014.</div>
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Addendum:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Garza also helps the Brewers in a rebuild. At the very least he can't hurt a rebuild because he doesn't cost a draft pick. If they're out of it by the trade deadline having Garza makes Gallardo, or possibly Lohse, more expendable. Garza himself could even be made available in a trade at some point in the future.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-82888440716873831462014-01-17T14:48:00.000-06:002014-01-17T14:48:12.346-06:00Brewers deferred payments<div class="MsoNormal">
I’ve been coming out with period payroll projections this
winter and Aramis Ramirez’s 2014 is a common point of confusion, and sometimes contention, for
people. I don’t blame anyone as
contracts can often be convoluted and information difficult to find. His total salary is technically $16 million,
but $6 million of that is deferred to a later date. This got me wondering about the other players
with deferred salary and I thought I’d share what I found.</div>
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As discussed above, Ramirez’s 2014 salary stipulates $6
million is deferred. I use <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/">Cot’sContracts</a> for most of my salary information. Sometimes I'll check <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/">B-Ref</a>, but that's only for confirmation if something is called into question.
Neither of these sites listed when or in what quantities the deferred
payments were to be made. It was only by chance that I stumbled upon <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22345">this article</a> and learned $3M will be paid in 2017 and the other
$3 million in 2018.</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
Ryan Braun’s contract stipulates
“$18 million in salary (4 million each in 2016-18 and $3 million each in
2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July
1 from 2022 to 2031.” In other words,
the Brewers are to pay Braun $1.8 million over the course of ten years. Those payments begin the year after Braun’s
final option year. He's also owed $10 million from a signing bonus. That's to be paid in equal installments over 4 years, the last two of which are 2014 and 2015. That's $2.5 million each year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
Kyle Lohse is the other player
whose contract includes deferred salary.
Seven million dollars of his 2013 salary is deferred, to be paid over
the years of 2016-2018. If it’s like
Ramirez and Braun’s deferred payments, it’ll be in equal installments. That’s $2,333,333 for 3 years.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
Ramirez’s deferred payments
will overlap with the last 2 years of Lohse’s deferred payments. Assuming I’m correct about the structure of
Lohse’s payments, the Brewers will then owe $5.33 million in 2017 and 2018. It’s possible that could end up being a
significant or prohibitive figure. I don’t
think it actually will be, but ownership could easily point to that as a public
rationalization not to spend. Braun’s
deferred payments (2022-2031) should not have any real impact on future
payroll.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 18.3pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;">
-All salary information in this article comes from Cot's Contract's <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/">Brewers</a> page.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-68394955800458718992014-01-17T12:48:00.003-06:002014-01-17T13:09:05.904-06:00Updated roster projection included Reynolds; Estrada & Francisco agree to contractsThis weeks the Brewers <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/240803401.html">signed</a> Mark Reynolds to a minor league contract that is worth as much $2.5 million after incentives. Despite it being a minor league deal I'm going to include him here because I'm quite certain he will be on the opening day roster. The Brewers were also able to avoid arbitration with Marco Estrada and Juan Francisco. In my opinion that leaves one roster spot open in the bullpen. It's possible they decide to bring in two free agent relievers, but I think it's unlikely. Here is my roster prediction:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Will Smith ($500k)*</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Free Agent</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">Cots Contracts</a>.<br />
<div>
*League minimum is $500k. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.<br />
** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.<br />
***Estrada's base salary is <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/424241931288207360">reportedly </a>$3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.<br />
****Francisco's contracts <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/424242675441610752">reportedly </a>contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.<br />
<br />
As I have it here, the total payroll with 1 open roster spot comes to approximately $81.575 million dollars.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-39867195962309014982014-01-17T11:14:00.000-06:002014-01-17T11:14:35.427-06:00Brewers sign Mark Reynolds<div class="MsoNormal">
Today
the Brewers signed 1B/3B <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7619&position=1B/3B">Mark Reynolds</a> to a minor league deal with an invite to
spring training. If he makes the team he’ll
earn $2 million with a chance at another $500,000 from incentives. Regardless of what you think of him, that’s
pretty darn cheap. My impression is they
signed him to a minor league deal simply as a way to keep a spot open on the
40-man roster. I’m pretty confident that
he’ll be on the opening day roster. They’re
still looking for a reliever and probably want to wait as long as possible
before DFA’ing someone off the roster.
If they end up trading Rickie Weeks they might not have to do that at
all.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reynolds
is a prime example of a three true outcome player. He’s either going to strikeout, hit a home
run, or draw a walk. A lot of people are
going to unjustly claim he’s awful because of his strikeouts. Don’t be one of them. He could very well be awful. He does have contact issues. But strikeouts don’t necessarily mean a
player is worthless. When he hits, it’s for a
ton of power. He also has some on-base
skills. Last year wasn’t good, but he
owns a career .329 OBP. It’s not great,
but you can play with that, especially when you’re hitting 25 home runs. He doesn’t have huge splits, but he does
handle LHP better than RHP. That would
fit in a platoon with Juan Francisco if the Brewers want to go in that
direction. Reynolds’ defense leaves a
lot to be desired, but he’s better at first base than third base. Playing bad defense, however, is worlds away
from not being able to play there at all.
He’ll provide additional depth in case Aramis Ramirez gets hurt
again. He could also help make Ramirez
more expendable at the deadline should the Brewers look to move him. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I like
this signing. Forget about the minor
league aspect. It’s a formality. He’s going to be the starting first
baseman. I might be more pumped about a
platoon with Francisco, but I don’t think that’s their plan. The option is there though. They’re only paying Reynolds to be a little
less than a 0.5 win player which is not a high bar. I really don’t see any way this could be bad
for the Brewers. Even if he’s awful,
which I think is unlikely, they could cut him and be out very little money. At this point in the winter I’m not sure they
could have done too much better.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-25229303690235171022014-01-16T13:47:00.000-06:002014-01-16T13:47:00.601-06:00What's worse than Clark?Recently the Chicago Cubs, to the abject horror of anyone who was taught about stranger danger, unveiled their new mascot Clark the cub, or Clark Cub, Cub Clark. I don't really know which it is. I do know it's hilariously awful. Take a look at this terrifying scene:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://cbschicago.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/clark2.jpg%3fw=620&h=349&crop=1" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://cbschicago.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/clark2.jpg%3fw=620&h=349&crop=1" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
Photo courtesy of <a href="http://cbschicago.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/clark2.jpg%3Fw%3D620%26h%3D349%26crop%3D1">CBS</a><br />
<br />
It's so bad that when the Cubs are killing it in the NL Central a few years from now I'll still take solace in the fact that at least Clark isn't the Brewers' mascot. And that got me thinking. Is there anything worse than Clark? So I now introduce you to The Book of Gorman's new recurring series: "What's worse than Clark?" Here we'll compare and contrast Clark with some other awful thing and let you decide what's worse than Clark.<br />
<br />
Clark is up against some stiff competition in our inaugural installment: The Marlins Home Run Sculpture.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4e92fc16eab8ea4e40000022/the-marlins-new-neon-home-run-sculpture-is-hideous.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4e92fc16eab8ea4e40000022/the-marlins-new-neon-home-run-sculpture-is-hideous.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
Photo courtesy of <a href="http://businhttp//static2.businessinsider.com/image/4e92fc16eab8ea4e40000022/the-marlins-new-neon-home-run-sculpture-is-hideous.jpgessInsider.com">BusinessInsider.com</a><br />
<br />
The Marlins are a wasteland of a baseball team. Their owner is the worst in the major leagues. He's already, at least partially, to blame for running the Expos into the ground. Even still, the worst thing about them may very well be the home run sculpture. It's supposed to be a tribute to the Cuban culture in Miami. I don't know how the Cuban community feels about it, but I think it's an eyesore. It also cost $2.5 million which was more than the Marlins <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/04/07/miami-marlins-salary-home-run-sculpture-gif/2060705/">individually paid</a> 22 players on their 25-man roster. When a Brewers player hits a home run they shoot off the most depressing looking fireworks and Bernie goes down the slide. It's a little silly, but it's unobtrusive. If I want to ignore it, I can. When a Marlin hits a home run this happens:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/CZch2jIMVtk?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />
So there you have it. The choice is now in your hands. Let me know, either in the comments or on <a href="https://twitter.com/2ndHS">Twitter</a> if you think the Marlins home run sculpture is worse than this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article9061648.ece/BINARY/original/clark-cub.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article9061648.ece/BINARY/original/clark-cub.jpg" height="320" width="240" /></a></div>
Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article9061648.ece/BINARY/original/clark-cub.jpg">Independent.co.uk</a>Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-19776560790995628142014-01-13T17:26:00.002-06:002014-01-14T01:35:29.687-06:00Where is the money going?<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2012 the Brewers pushed their opening day payroll over
the $100 million mark for the first time ever.
By the end of the season, after trades, they ended up committing a total
of approximately <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">$98 million</a>. It has been claimed that they <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/182115401.html" target="_blank">lost several million dollars</a> that season. Whether that means they actually operated in
the red or just didn’t make as much money as expected is up for debate. Regardless, the Brewers scaled back the
payroll in 2013 to a little under $89 million in order to make up for some of the
losses. I happen to think it was a
prudent move. I agreed with it despite
the fact that they were to receive an additional $9 million (<a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/200738381.html" target="_blank">approximately</a>)
from their unfortunately awful local TV contract.
We shouldn’t expect them to use all that money for roster construction,
but theoretically some could go towards it.
From all this, one can infer several things: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
1. Prior to the increased local TV
revenue, $98 million was several million over what the Brewers could spend and
just break even. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
2. Prior to the increased local TV revenue
the Brewers could break even by operating somewhere around $92-94 million
(several million below the $98 million spent in 2012). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
3. After increased local TV revenue
is factored in the Brewers could break-even by operating somewhere over $92-94
million (or in other words, some millions more than several million below the $98 million spent in 2012).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’ll also note that each club will begin receiving an
additional <a href="http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5734&Itemid=203" target="_blank">$26 million dollars</a> in 2014 from National TV contracts. I’ll have more to say on this later.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Judging by the moves the Brewers have not made (e.g. not
trading players to enter a rebuild phase) one has to assume the plan is to compete in 2014. It’s possible that they could explore selling players at the trade deadline. That is,
however, less of a plan than a lack thereof.
For the sake of argument, I’m going to assume the plan is to
compete. The question then becomes what
areas are in need of improvement? One
could argue that the rotation is weak and the bullpen needs bolstering. I would say, even though they may not be
exceptional pitchers, the 5 rotation spots can be filled in house and the
bullpen is less important. It is my
assertion that the only glaring need is first base. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let’s go back to the money side of things for a moment. Above I have inferred that $92-94 million was approximately the point at which the Brewers could operate without losing money. This is before factoring increased revenue
($35 million) from local and national TV contracts. It’s impractical to ask the Brewers to commit
that full sum to the payroll, but I think it’s fair to say that they could
commit as much as $10 million of it if not more (The rest of the TV money would go to things like the first year player draft,
international signings, and improving facilities and various programs throughout the
franchise). Let's hedge our bets and say that before factoring the national TV revenue, the Brewers payroll limit was $92 million. After factoring the new national TV money the Brewers current payroll limit is, very conservatively, $102 million dollars. I have <a href="http://t.co/V5EoFbfVFZ" target="_blank">previously estimated</a> the
Brewers payroll to be $80.2 million with two open roster spots for a first
baseman and a reliever. That means the
Brewers could theoretically spend as much as almost $22 million for those last two spots. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m not saying the Brewers should spend all that money for the
sake of spending it. I’m not saying they
should be spending $100 million annually.
I’m certainly not saying they can compete with other clubs for elite
free agents nor do I think they should try.
I understand the desire to stay away from long term deals and I agree
with that in general. I understand why
they didn’t want to give James Loney something like 3 years and $27
million. That is all the quarter I'll give them, though, because I don’t understand why they
were unwilling to offer Corey Hart the deal Seattle did. And I am absolutely saying I reject the notion that they
could not afford it. Anyone that tells you that is either lying or misinformed. They have more than
enough money. In point of fact they have over $8 million more than enough.
I understand the risk associated with his knees but that risk is
mitigated by limiting the deal to one year and making it incentive based. Hart was a better option than anything now left to the Brewers. He was a step closer towards legitimate contention, and also offered the ability to trade him mid-season, but that’s
another conversation. The point is they
have money to spend but were unwilling to spend it on the one thing they need most in a year in which they claim their goal is to contend. By doing they so arguably left themselves worse off.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I have many questions for the Brewers. But for right now, the one foremost on my
mind is this: If they are unwilling to spend the money they have on the one
area they need most, where exactly is that money going?</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-5858047576098306292014-01-13T15:34:00.002-06:002014-01-13T15:34:50.100-06:00The latest roster and payroll projectionsThe one is going to be short and, well, bitter. The Brewers did not sign Corey Hart as I had prognosticated and they did not sign James Loney as I had advocated. In point of fact, they have not signed anyone...at all. The trade talks with the Mets over Ike Davis have gone nowhere, thankfully, and it doesn't look like there are any other possibilities on the trade market. Michael Young was a name that came up, but as of yet that seems to have gone nowhere. For right now, it seems more likely than before that the Brewers will fill from with-in. I do expect them to sign someone for the pen, maybe two someones. I think it's likely they do get another position player too, but maybe someone for depth instead of a starter. But hey, what do I know? Anyway, here is how I see the roster playing out as of right now.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
1B: Juan Francisco ($1.4 MM)**</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Free agent.</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.5 MM)**</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)*</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Will Smith ($500k)*</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Free Agent</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">Cots Contracts</a>.<div>
*League minimum</div>
<div>
**Arbitration projections from <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-milwaukee-brewers.html" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumors</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
With two open roster spots for bench/first base and the bullpen, I estimate the the payroll to be $80.2 million. If they were to fill the final two spots from with-in the payroll total would come to $81.2 million. For reference (also from Cots), the Brewers spent $88,828,333 in 2013 and in $98,150,833 in 2012.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-40774203390322082013-12-13T22:45:00.001-06:002013-12-13T22:45:48.921-06:00Hunter Morris is not the answer<div class="MsoNormal">
With
Corey Hart, James Loney, and Logan Morrison off the market the options are
running out for the Brewers open spot at first base. Ike Davis seems to be their top target as of
right now, but Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, and Mike Carp are also
probably available should the Pirates be able to snipe Davis. None of these players are slam dunks and each
one will cost a player in to acquire.
That has led some people to wonder why <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526553&position=1B" target="_blank">Hunter Morris</a> isn’t in play. The answer is really quite simple if you look
past his “2012 Brewers Minor League Player of the Year” season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I won’t
take that away from him though. He was
pretty good in 2012 at Double-A Huntsville.
He hit 301/357/563 with 28 home runs.
So yeah, if that’s all you’re looking at it seems confusing that he isn’t
being talked about more. Unfortunately
for Morris, the Brewers are aware of his contributions before and after that
season. Take a look:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2010 (A):
251/306/436</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 (A+)* 277/299/461</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2013 (AAA) :
247/301/457</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
*He did get promoted to AA in 2011 but he only played 4
games (17 plate appearances) so I didn’t include those stats.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another thing to consider: BABIP (batting average on balls
in play)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2010: 286</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011: 289 (again not
including the 17 PAs at AA)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012: 342</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2013: 280</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That 2012 BABIP is so far out of line it’s simply
unsustainable. This is evidenced by a
return to the norm in 2013. The power is
real, I'll give him that, but that 2012 "breakout" is an illusion. This is why Hunter
Morris is not being seriously considered.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> I hear a lot people say that if he
isn’t ready now at 25, he’ll never be ready.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">There is no logic in that assertion.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Morris is below replacement level player right now so why would you want
to put him on the Brewers 25 man roster anyway?</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Because he’s getting older?</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">That’s
no argument.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Some people take longer to
develop.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Morris was just added to the
40-man roster this offseason so he has all 3 options remaining.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">That means the Brewers can let him develop
for three more seasons if they really wanted to and he clearly needs that
time.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I’m sure we’ll see him in
Milwaukee at some point this season but it may not be until September.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">His performance in 2014 will tell us a lot
about his future, but a lot will also depend on who the Brewers do get to play first
base.</span></div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-24249248906389905792013-12-13T16:34:00.001-06:002013-12-13T16:34:15.235-06:00Brewers draft lottery ticket in Rule 5<div class="MsoNormal">
Yesterday
the Winter Meetings ended and unfortunately the Brewers were unable to fill
their hole at first base. They didn’t
leave entirely empty handed though. The
Rule 5 draft took place yesterday and the Brewers were more active than they
have been in recent years. I won’t
pretend to care about the minor league part of the draft, but I am intrigued by
their major league selection. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The Brewers drafted 21 year old Taiwanese
left-handed pitcher <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa739593&position=P" target="_blank">Wei-Chung Wang</a> from the Pirates. He intriguing not because I think he can be
good, though he could be for all I know.
He’s intriguing because I have absolutely no idea what he is at
all. I mean, yes, he’s a left-handed
pitcher. Aside from that, he’s a
complete mystery. This is because he’s
only pitched 1 season in professional baseball and that was for the Pirates
rookie league club. He was only eligible
because after the Pirates signed him, it was learned that he would need Tommy
John surgery. They voided his original
deal and signed him to a lesser contract.
He immediately became eligible for the Rule 5 draft when his original
deal was voided.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The way the Rule 5 draft works, the
Brewers are going to have to keep Wang on their major league roster for the
entire 2014 season or give him back to the Pirates. There are ways to work around that by having
him spend time on the DL with a “convenient” injury, but he would have to spend
at least 92 days on the MLB roster.
Should the Brewers find a way to keep him on the roster for 2014, they
will then be able to option him normally starting in 2015. That would give him 3 years to develop in the
minors. I have no idea what his
potential is, but the Brewers must think either he can be a quality reliever
right now or a starter in the future.
That’s intriguing, especially for a club that has had such trouble developing
starters, left-handers double so.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
So what are the Brewers supposed to
do with arguably the most inexperienced player in the major leagues for a
season? Well, clearly they will have to
put him in the bullpen. Because he’ll only be facing batters once a
game, it’ll let him get by with lesser stuff.
That will also limit his impact (positive or negative) on the
season. To further aid him, the Brewers
would likely only use him in lower leverage and mop-up situations. Perhaps they will use him as a left-handed
specialist. (In general I’m against
wasting a spot on a LOOGY but I’d make an exception here.) They have at least one left hander in the pen
with Gorzelanny, but he recently had surgery to clean up his shoulder and it’s
not guaranteed he’ll be ready when the season starts. They also have recently acquired Will
Smith. Doug Melvin said they will look
at him as a starter in Spring Training and make their decision then. I can see one of three things happening with
Smith. He could be the fifth starter for
the Brewers which would allow Wang to take the LOOGY role. He could pitch out of the pen and the Brewers
could use 2-3 lefties (two of which may only be LOOGYs and that’s scary). Or, Smith could start in AAA, which would also
allow Wang to fill the LOOGY role.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I think there is a solid chance the
Brewers take a look at Wang in the spring, don’t like what they see, and give
him back to the Pirates before he ever pitches an inning.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Still, if he can survive in the bullpen for a
season, he offers a lot of upside.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Or at
least I think he does.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Even if he
develops into just a back-end starter this was another savvy move by Melvin and
the Brewers.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">In a season where
contending is a longshot at best, I think it’s worth the risk.</span></div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-4643970266611573142013-12-06T16:13:00.000-06:002013-12-06T16:13:57.815-06:00Updated roster and payroll projections. With the Winter Meetings coming up next week and after a couple of minor to moderate deals the Brewers have made recently, I decided now would be a good time to update the my projected 25-man roster. You can find the original <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-2014-milwaukee-brewers.html" target="_blank">here</a>. Since I wrote that, the non-tender deadline has passed. As you'll remember Burke Badenhop was <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/brewers-trade-burke-badenhop-for-luis.html" target="_blank">traded</a> so the only arb-eligible players left were Marco Estrada and Juan Francisco. Both were tendered contracts, the total sums of which are to be determined but it's estimated the two combined will cost around <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-milwaukee-brewers.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">$5 million</a>. In much bigger news, the Brewers recently <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/12/derek-harvey-2ndhs-earliertoday-brewers.html" target="_blank">traded Nori Aoki</a> for LHP Will Smith. I think that leaves the Brewers with only 2 spots left to fill. One of those spots should be filled by Corey Hart. I recently estimated his contract to be around <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/12/what-would-corey-hart-contract-look-like.html" target="_blank">$6 million plus incentives</a>. Here's where I see the roster now:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
1B: Corey Hart ($6 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Juan Francisco ($1.4 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.5 MM)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)</div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Will Smith ($500k)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
RP: Free Agent</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
With one roster spot open in the bullpen, I estimate the payroll to be approximately $86.2 million. That's only $1.2 million more than last year. It's here I'll remind you that every club is receiving an additional $25 million from Nat'l TV deals. Don't expect them to use all of that money on the payroll. They have other things to spend on like the First Year Player Draft, international signings, ballpark improvements, scouting system, etc. Even then, they should have at least another $5 million left to spend.<div>
The Brewers will have several decent or better internal options to fill that last roster spot, but I discussed depth here and I believe it's actually in their best interest to sign a free agent. The Brewers are reported to be looking for a reliever with closing experience and for better or worse, as you can see by my payroll estimate, they'll have plenty of money to spend. Though, I'm not advocating spending $10 million on a "proven closer." Closers aren't things. I've already discussed what I might do with bullpen <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/what-to-do-about-2014-bullpen.html" target="_blank">here</a>. I still believe there is an outside chance they buy another starter, in which case Thornburg would move to the pen. It's really slim, and with what's left on the market, I'm heavily leaning towards giving the 5th rotation spot to Thornburg. The Brewers have <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mil/milwaukee-brewers-acquire-will-smith-from-kansas-city-royals-for-norichika-aoki?ymd=20131205&content_id=64412598&vkey=news_mil" target="_blank">stated</a> they'll try Will Smith out of the rotation in Spring Training, but I think he'll have to do a lot to take the spot from Thornburg. Either way, one of them will likely be in the rotation and the other in the pen.<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div>
I think it's possible the Brewers could trade one or more of Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, and Rickie Weeks. The problem with Lohse and Gallardo is finding decent replacements, assuming the plan is to compete. If the plan were to rebuild then just trade them all and don't worry about it. It's not though. They do have several internal options (Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, Fiers, Burgos), but none are as good as either pitcher. I'm not terribly intrigued by any of the remaining free agents either. At this point I don't expect either to be traded before the season starts. They might be on the block by midseason though.</div>
<div>
The problem with Ramirez and Weeks are their salaries, though I think Ramirez's is less of an obstacle than some believe since $6 million is deferred. The other problem with Weeks is his performance (or lack thereof) the past two season and to a lesser extent, his hamstring injury. I will point out that the Yankees are now lacking a second baseman and third baseman (once A-Rod is suspended). I'm not saying that Ramirez and Weeks are the perfect fit, just that they could be a fit. I <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/is-there-trade-market-for-aramis-ramirez.html" target="_blank">previously mentioned</a> the Yankees as a possible trade partner for Ramirez, but Weeks could make sense too as he can be platooned with Kelly Johnson. Payroll towards the luxury tax is factored through contract AAV. So, while Ramirez technically makes $16 million next year, and even though $6 million is deferred, his AAV is $12 million dollars. Weeks' AAV is just under $10 million. That's less than what A-Rod or Cano would make individually. That gives them tons of money to spend while filling two spots reasonably well. It's the very definition of a longshot, but I think the Brewers would be very open to shedding the payroll. The main problem is finding a replacement at third. </div>
</div>
<div>
This year's Winter Meetings should prove to be quite boring. I honestly don't expect any more trades, but there will be talk. I do think the Brewers will re-sign Hart before the meetings are over. Hart is a family man so I imagine the latest would be by Christmas. If the past is any indication, Melvin will wait before he signs his reliever with closer experience. This offseason has developed crazy fast though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see all the moves the Brewers make for the rest of it, happen next week. All two of them.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-83378972521147076972013-12-05T15:36:00.002-06:002013-12-05T15:37:31.900-06:00What would a Corey Hart contract look like?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Corey Hart was finally <a href="http://www.sportsinjuryalert.com/2013/12/doctors-note-corey-hart-cleared-to.html" target="_blank">medicallycleared</a> to resume baseball activities on December 3. Teams have already been checking in on him
and with the Winter Meetings beginning next week I expect his market to develop
quickly. I actually think he’ll sign
some time before the meetings are over so I wanted to explore what his contract
would look like if he were to re-sign with the Brewers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I think
Mike Napoli is a perfect comp for Hart. Here
is what they did from <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1945,3057" target="_blank">2010 through 2012</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hart: 277/344/509,
56 home runs, 130 wRC+</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Napoli: 279/379/552, 54 home runs, 147 wRC+</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2013 Napoli had a 3 year $39 million deal in place with
the Red Sox before something in his medicals tanked that. He ended up signing an <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3057&position=C/1B#contract" target="_blank">incentive laden oneyear deal</a>. The base was for $5 million
with another $8 million in incentives.
Napoli was slightly better offensively and Hart is a year younger, but
the big difference here is that Hart has missed an entire year with knee
injuries. He’s still going to get paid
though and with the way salaries are rising I expect Hart’s deal (after
incentives) will be close to the $13 million mark reached by Napoli. Corey has stated that he will be willing to
take a discount to stay in Milwaukee but I think if he does it won’t be for
much. I actually think it’s more likely
that he agrees to defer payment for the incentives reached, to a later
date. It makes sense for the Brewers and
there is precedent for it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some
people have suggested that with all the interest from other teams, for the
Brewers to get him, they’ll have to include a team or vesting option for a
second year at market price. I think
this would serve as a deterrent. Hart is
getting older and is probably only going to get one more multi-year deal before
his career is over. If he takes that
second year he hits free agency when he’s 34 instead of 33. He would also be giving up an opportunity to
cash in next offseason. Look at it this
way:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Best-case Scenario 1:
Hart signs a 1 year incentive laden deal w/option. Hart has a good season and the option
vests. He makes $13 million in each year
of his two years. He enters free agency
at 34.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Best-case Scenario 2: Hart signs a 1 year incentive laden deal. Hart has a good season. He makes $13 million. He enters free agency at 33.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Worst-case Scenario 1: Hart signs a 1 year incentive laden
deal w/option. Hart has a bad year and
the team declines his option or they don’t allow it to vest. He enters free agency at 33 coming off a bad
year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Worst-case Scenario 2: Hart signs a 1 year incentive laden
deal. Hart has a bad year. He enters free agency at 33 coming off a bad
year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The second best-case scenario carries the best chance for
Hart to make the most money. He enters
free agency a year younger than in scenario 1 coming off a good year. In scenario 2 he needs to have two good years
to allow him the opportunity to get a multi-year deal in free agency. Both worst-case scenarios are essentially the
same except that in scenario 1 Hart maybe gets another $500,000 from a buyout. The only way an option makes sense is if it’s
a player option. That way Hart decides
what he wants to do. There is a lot of
risk inherent in that option, and I’m not sure the Brewers would do that. I really don’t think any team is going to go
past 1 guaranteed year for Hart, so there’s no reason the Brewers have to.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ultimately
I think Hart signs a 1 year deal with the Brewers. It’ll have a relatively low base salary
around $5-6 million, perhaps with some of it deferred. It’ll also include incentives that are
reached based on games played and plate appearances that will allow him to make
another $6-8 million, also possibly deferred.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-67825574840936769992013-12-05T14:19:00.003-06:002013-12-05T14:20:08.409-06:00Brewers trade Norichika Aoki to Royals for Will Smith<div class="MsoNormal">
By Derek Harvey (<a href="https://twitter.com/2ndHS" target="_blank">@2ndHS</a>)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Earlier
today the Brewers traded <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13075&position=OF" target="_blank">Norichika Aoki</a> to the Royals for 24 year left-handed
pitcher <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8048&position=P" target="_blank">Will Smith</a>. I previously wrote
that it was <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/its-time-to-trade-aoki.html" target="_blank">time to trade Aoki</a>, but despite that I’m not a big fan of this
particular trade. Smith seems most
suited for relief and even then he may need to be relegated to lefty
specialist. That isn’t much even for a
league average, power-lite, corner outfielder on a (very cheap) 1 year
contract. Still, it happened so we might
as well take a look at the implications.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Obviously
this opens a spot for another outfielder and the Brewers have already said they
are going with Khris Davis in left field and moving Ryan Braun to right
field. I’m a big fan of this. Braun will be able to give approximately the
same level of defense in right as Aoki provided. Khris Davis has a much higher offensive
potential than Aoki does. He’s going to
be worse defensively than Braun in left, though. So in essence what we’re talking about here
is a decrease in defensive capability in left field and a large increase in
offensive capability in the line-up.
That’s a trade-off I’m willing to make.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The
question then becomes what to do with Will Smith? The Brewers have said they will look at him
as a starter in spring training. He did
come up through the minors as a starter and made 16 starts for the Royals in
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8048&position=P&season=2012#advanced" target="_blank">2012</a>, but he wasn’t very good. In <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8048&position=P&season=2013#advanced" target="_blank">2013</a>
they used him out of the pen and he was much better. He throws in the low 90’s with his fastball
which was well below average (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8048&position=P#pitchvalues" target="_blank">-10.4 runs</a>) in 2012 when he was a starter, and a
little bit above average (+0.7 runs) in 2013 when he was mostly a reliever. He has solid slider that was worth 2.8 runs
above average in relief. He has a
curveball and change-up but neither has been effective. He has a problem limiting the home run
whether he’s pitching out of the rotation or in the bullpen and in Miller Park
that could be accentuated. Smith might
have the ability to move to the rotation in the same way Marco Estrada did, but
I wouldn’t expect it. If he is starting
in 2014 it’ll probably be in AAA. For
now at least my money is on him throwing out of the Brewers’ bullpen, possibly
as a LOOGY. In 2013, mostly as a
reliever, he had a 2.63 FIP and a 0.89! xFIP against lefties, but 4.21 FIP and
3.74 xFIP against righties. He had
similar platoon splits in 2012 as a starter.
Bottom-line, he’s been far less effective against rightes, caveat being
the small sample size.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The
last thing to be determined is who leads-off.
The three candidates will likely be Scooter Gennett, Jean Segura, and
Carlos Gomez. I think Gomez has too much
power to hit out of the lead-off spot.
Gennett is too much of question mark for me to be comfortable with
him. Segura isn’t necessarily a great
option either as he doesn’t take a lot of walks so his on-base percentage is heavily
tied into his batting average. He also cooled
off a lot later in the season. I’m hoping
that’s because he was tired after playing the full 2012 season, followed by
winter ball, and then the full 2013 season.
Were it up to me I’d put Segura lead-off followed by Gomez. I want to see more of Gennett before I put
him in such an important spot. I’d have
him batting 8<span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span>. Also, that
way nothing would have to change when Weeks gets the start against left-handed
pitching.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Smith’s
ceiling is as a back-end starter and if he hits that, then this was a decent,
if not great trade. Smiths’s floor, and a
more realistic expectation, is as a left-handed specialist. If that’s the case this was a poor
trade. He could also be a solid middle
reliever who’s brutal to lefties. That’s
good, but I’m not sure it was the best use of Aoki. At the very least I would have waited until
the trade deadline, but maybe this was the best they were ever going to
get. It’s a little hard to second-guess
something with essentially no information.
I can’t know the level of interest from other clubs or how hard the
Brewers shopped Aoki, but if a LOOGY isn’t the lowliest of positions on a
baseball team, I don’t know what is. It
did open a spot for Khris Davis which I think alone makes them better for 2014. But there were better ways of doing
that. Aoki was gone after this year so
it’s not like they’ve ruined themselves, but I think they might have sold
themselves short. </div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-49970268991435636432013-11-26T10:36:00.001-06:002013-11-26T13:23:19.747-06:00The Brewers should claim Kyle McPherson<div class="MsoNormal">
Yesterday
the Pirates <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/pirates-designate-garrett-jones-kyle-mcpherson.html" target="_blank">DFA’d </a>Garrett Jones and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5009&position=P" target="_blank">Kyle McPherson</a>. First base is a certified national disaster
so Jones does make some sense for the Brewers.
He’s not very exciting and I really believe the Brewers are going to
re-sign Corey Hart, or at the very least are going to try. If that’s true then Jones would make an
expensive bench player. I’m not
interested in Jones, but I find McPherson intriguing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kyle
McPherson is a starting pitching prospect.
Before the season began FanGraphs rated him as the Pirates <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pittsburgh-pirates-top-15-prospects-2012-13/" target="_blank">8thbest prospect</a>. MLB.com currently lists
him as their <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=int" target="_blank">14<sup>th</sup> best prospect</a>, but had him at 7<sup>th</sup>
before the season began. He has an above
average fastball that sits at 93 mph.
His curveball and change-up are both major league average and he has immaculate
control as evidenced by his excellent BB% throughout the minors. Both project his ceiling as a mid-rotation
starter and short of that a solid reliever.
This is similar to the projection for the Brewers current top prospect
Jimmy Nelson, however that’s more an indictment of the system than an
endorsement of McPherson. It seems crazy
that the Pirates would designate him, but his injury history is to blame. In 2012 he missed time due to a shoulder
issue and unfortunately for him, early in 2013 he suffered an elbow injury
leading to <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pirates-mcpherson-hadtommy-john-surgery-231031191--mlb.html" target="_blank">Tommy John surgery</a>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McPherson
is a big risk considering his arm issues.
The Brewers 40-man roster is currently at 39 so they do have a spot for
him, but they may want to save that for Corey Hart or the upcoming Rule 5
draft. I wouldn’t let that stop me,
however. Unless the Brewers are planning
on signing a first baseman and filling out the opening day roster with what
they have right now, they’re going to have to clear a couple of spots on the
40-man anyway. McPherson’s potential is
as good, maybe better, than anyone they’d get from the Rule 5. I’ve previously advocated <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/its-time-to-trade-aoki.html" target="_blank">trading Nori Aoki</a>
and while I didn’t specify, I figured a prospect of McPherson’s level, albeit a
healthy one, would be a likely return. Here
is an opportunity to get that without giving anything up (It should be noted that the Pirates can still pull him back from waivers. They can use that leverage to orchestrate a trade with the Brewers). With the Brewers’ farm system being what it
is (awful) I can’t see a reason not to claim him unless his medicals are just that bad. A healthy McPherson would rank top 10 in the
Brewers’ system, maybe even top 5. Right
now, despite the injury, he would still rank in the top 15.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Players
can be put on the 60-Day DL starting in March and he’d be eligible to return in
June, though it would likely be much later.
When he does make his return the Brewers would put him in the
bullpen. This allows them to monitor his
elbow and limit his innings in his return to action. It’s not uncommon for teams to go through
many relievers in a season and he may be a welcome addition to the bullpen. They should have several relievers with
options meaning the Brewers can send them to AAA to make room without exposing them on waivers. Donovan
Hand would be perfect. He’s probably
going to be the low leverage/long man in the pen. That’s exactly the role you’d want McPherson
in, at least at first. I think he’s a
good candidate to take the Marco Estrada route to the rotation. When the Brewers first acquired him, they had
him pitching out of the bullpen. Then he
made a few spot starts and before you knew it he was one of their primary
starters.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The
Brewers would assume a lot of risk by claiming McPherson. It would also put them in an awkward
situation with their 40-man roster at this point in the offseason. Tommy John surgery doesn’t carry the stigma it
used to and there is no reason to believe he cannot come back from it. His potential is intriguing and I think it’s
worth working around. If it pays off,
the Brewers have a dirt cheap mid-rotation starter under team control until
2019. If the experiment fails, they
wasted a 40-man roster spot for a season.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-74165088225739367272013-11-25T11:15:00.001-06:002013-11-25T11:37:31.314-06:00It's time to trade Aoki<div class="MsoNormal">
I know
a lot of people really like <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13075&position=OF" target="_blank">Norichicka Aoki</a> and they want to keep him
around. I can understand that. He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter. He has hit for a good average and gotten
on-base at a well above average rate since coming to the majors in 2012. He’ll only make about <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">$2 million</a> in 2014. I have to imagine that anyone against trading
him is under the impression the Brewers have a chance to make the postseason,
because why else keep him? It’s not like
they’re lacking for outfielders. I think
the chances are slim that they compete, but if they do they might get better
production by starting <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9112&position=OF" target="_blank">Khris Davis</a> instead.
I like Aoki too, but quite frankly the time to cut ties with him is
quickly approaching if it hasn’t already arrived. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2012
Aoki hit 288/355/433, with 30 SB (8 CS), and 10 HR which was good for a 114
wRC+. In 2013 he hit 286/356/370, with
20 SB (12 CS), and 8 HR which was good for a 104 wRC+. You’ll notice his slugging numbers were way
down. That’s because he hit 2 fewer home
runs, 1 fewer triples, and 17 fewer doubles.
His base running skills also took a massive hit. He stole 10 fewer bases while getting caught
4 more times. His extra bases taken
percentage (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aokino01-bat.shtml#batting_baserunning::none" target="_blank">XBT%</a>) dropped from 40% to 28%. The point is not to suggest that he is useless because he can't hit for power numbers or run well. It's to illustrate his decline. He still hit for a good average and got on-base at an above average
clip. That is a valuable skill even if it’s mitigated by lowered slugging
numbers. I’m just not sure it puts him
ahead of the other in-house option.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If you
want the Brewers to compete then you should want them to start Khris Davis. He has the potential to be a far greater
offensive threat than Aoki. In 56 games
he hit 279/353/579 with 11 home runs.
That’s good for a 160 wRC+. While
there’s some doubt that he can repeat that over an entire season, that beats
Aoki’s best mark by 46 points. Davis had good numbers at ever level in the minors so that at least suggests he can be a capable major leaguer. Even if
Davis loses some ground it shouldn’t be too difficult to surpass Aoki’s 104
wRC+ in 2013 which was barely above average (100 is average). He might not be suited for leadoff, but that
won’t matter. They can find someone else
to fill that spot and use Davis’ slugging ability further down the line-up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Aoki’s defense in right is adequate
but I’d be worried about putting him in center.
That limits his value as a back-up. If they wanted to use him off the bench, his
salary is so low that he could serve in a back-up role. Even then, if the argument is to save money
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5002&position=OF" target="_blank">Caleb Gindl</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7937&position=OF" target="_blank">Logan Schafer</a> would each make $1.5 million less. They each provide certain advantages (and
disadvantages) over Aoki too. Gindl
provides more pop but cannot play center.
Schafer is a much better defender but his bat is weak. Aoki is the most well rounded of the three so
you could still argue that he’s the best choice. I think he’d serve the Brewers better in a
trade.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">By now I’m sure everyone has heard
about the proposed Aoki for Ike Davis </span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/mets-brewers-talked-ike-davis-trade.html" style="text-indent: 0.5in;" target="_blank">trade</a><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">This is an example of what I wouldn’t trade him for.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I think, right now, the Brewers should only
trade Aoki for a prospect.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Unfortunately,
I’m not sure what other teams have a need for him and it’s likely he’s only a 4</span><sup style="text-indent: 0.5in;">th</sup><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
outfielder or platoon player on most other teams.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">If they’re unable to get a decent value for
him, then I’d hang onto him and revisit the scenario at the trade
deadline.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Aoki won’t, and shouldn’t, be
extended.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">At mid-season it will be about
getting anything for a player on his way out.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Therefore, at that time, I will lower my expectations regarding the
return.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I’ll even take a bullpen
prospect.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The only way I don’t trade him
is if the Brewers are competing, though if you’ve been keeping up with my
articles you’ll know I doubt the possibility.</span></div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-44011938068148181842013-11-24T12:52:00.002-06:002013-11-24T14:15:43.586-06:00Is there a trade market for Aramis Ramirez<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1002&position=3B" target="_blank">Aramis Ramirez</a> will be entering his
age 36 season. He is owed $16 million in
2014. His <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/" target="_blank">contract</a> includes an option
for 2015 at $15 million with a rather steep $4 million buyout. A knee injury that plagued him all year caused
him to miss 70 games. Defensively he is
below average. These are all sound
reasons why Ramirez will be a difficult player to trade. Some might even say it’s impossible. I’m not one of those people.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Ramirez missed a lot of time when
he was injured, but when he was playing he still hit at a high level. In 97 games he put up a triple slash line of
287/370/461 with 12 home runs which was good for a 132 wRC+. That’s right in line with his previous two
seasons suggesting he can still swing the bat.
Had he been able to produce that wRC+ over a full season it would have
put him in the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d" target="_blank">top 5</a> for offensive production at third base. As far as the injury goes, he was able to
play through it for most of the season.
I guess it depends how you look at it, but he wouldn’t have been allowed
to play if it was too serious. Getting
his medicals cleared this winter should allay some injury fears. With the offensive potential he offers, a
team in the AL could see him as a solid option given they could put him at DH
every once in a while to keep him fresh.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Arguably the largest obstacle to
trading Ramirez will be his salary, but that can be offset. He’ll be owed $16 million, but only $10
million needs to be paid in 2014. The
other $6 million is deferred to an unknown date. With a little detective work, and admittedly
a lot of assumptions, we can come to a likely conclusion. Kyle Lohse and Ryan Braun’s contracts each
include deferred salaries. While total
sums and years are different, each contract uses similar language. Each deferred sum ($7 million for Lohse, $18
million for Braun) will be paid in equal amounts spread over a certain number
of years (3 for Lohse and 10 for Braun).
Each designate that their deferred payments begin the year after their
contracts are up. In Braun’s case an
option year is included at the end of his contract. His deferred payments begin the year after
the option year. We can, therefore,
assume Ramirez’s deferred payments will begin in 2016 (the year after his
option year). The number of years over
which the payments are to be made is anyone’s guess, but if it’s like Lohse’s
contract, it will be 3 years. That means
$2MM from 2016-2018. If the Brewers
agree to pay that deferred amount, it’ll go a long way towards making a trade a
reality. They haven’t shown a
willingness to include money in deals before, but this might be more palatable
to management. It won’t stop them from
doing anything this offseason. In fact
it’ll open up a lot of options considering they’d clear $10 million from the
payroll. Then, when it is time to pay
up, it’ll be in small, manageable sums.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
It’s also important to put Ramirez
in context of this offseason. That means
evaluating other trade targets as well as free agent third basemen. The <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html" target="_blank">free agent market</a> is really awful for
third basemen. To put a point on it,
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=454&position=SS" target="_blank">Juan Uribe</a> is inarguably the top third baseman free agent available. Uribe is a good defender but his bat is
suspect. He fits on teams that don’t
need offense or that have tight budgets.
He’s kind of the opposite of Ramirez.
Teams that would want Uribe may not be the same teams looking to acquire
Ramirez. That means less competition.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
David Freese was recently traded to
the Angels. This is good for two
reasons. It takes a third basemen off
the market meaning less competition.
It’s also good because the Angels would not have made a good trade
partner since their farm system may be the only one that’s worse off than the Brewers’. Chase Headley has oft been rumored to be on
the block, but I think the Padres are a lot closer to competing than most
people give them credit for. They continue
to say their goal is lock him up long-term and I believe them. If that’s true then I don’t see another third
baseman on the block that would be competition for Ramirez. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
I can think of four clubs that make
logical trade partners for Ramirez. The
Dodgers have shown interest in Ramirez in the past and they might again. They’ve stated that their first choice at
third is to re-sign Uribe, but that might change if the Brewers dangle
Ramirez. They are certainly not going to
balk at his salary this and they might not want to commit to three years to
Uribe, which is what he <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/juan_uribe/" target="_blank">wants</a>. They
could cut ties with Ramirez after the season should they decide to go after Headley
(if he’s available) or if they decide to move Hanley Ramirez to third
base. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
One team that’s already made a huge
splash on the trade market is the Tigers.
They sent Prince Fielder to Texas for Ian Kinsler. This allows them to move Miguel Cabrera to
first, possibly leaving third base open.
They have an in-house option in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7223&position=OF" target="_blank">Alex Castellanos</a>, but they could have him play
left field, which is one of their <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=6&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0" target="_blank">weak spots</a>.
After two years of Cabrera at the hot corner, Aramis Ramirez would seem
like a defensive wizard. They also have
the DH at their disposal. <span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Again, the
money likely wouldn’t be a deterrent.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The Red Sox may want an upgrade over Will Middlebrooks. <span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">They lost out on free agent catcher Brian McCann and will be unlikely to re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury. They can make up for that offense by acquiring Ramirez. </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">They could start him and use Middlebrooks in reserve. They can also use Ramirez at DH on occasion, though Ortiz will be there more often than not. </span><br />
Finally, and likely the most
realistic, are the Yankees. Alex
Rodriguez is almost certainly getting suspended. We won’t know until after the holidays for
how long, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s for at least the entire 2014
season. That frees up <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/new-york-yankees/" target="_blank">$25 million</a> for
them so Ramirez’s $10 million will seem paltry by comparison. The Yankees are in win-now mode and Ramirez
would be the best third baseman available.
If A-Rod returns for the 2015 season, they can decline Ramirez’s option,
or use him at DH.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
I think the biggest obstacle to
trading Ramirez is lack of a clear alternative for the Brewers. They’re probably going to try to compete next
year, whether it’s a good idea or not.
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6978&position=1B/3B" target="_blank">Juan Francisco</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9958&position=3B/SS" target="_blank">Jeff Bianchi</a> can both play third, but they both come
with big question marks. Juan Uribe is
the only real option in free agency and the Dodgers will likely bring him back,
unless they acquire Ramirez. I won’t
even entertain the idea of bringing <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8585&position=SS" target="_blank">Yuniesky Betancourt</a> back… It’s possible the Brewers could sweep in and
steal Uribe by offering him a 3 year deal.
I’ll even go so far as to say they should, but it’s just so unlikely that
the Brewers would do that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">It’s not impossible to move
Ramirez, just difficult.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I think the
interest will be there.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">In reality,
whether because of his salary, health, or unwillingness on the Brewers part, I
think Ramirez will be playing for them next year.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">They will have at least one more opportunity
to explore a trade at the deadline mid-season.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">If they do, they might find fewer suitors, but they should have an easier
time moving his salary.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">There’s also the
added risk that Ramirez won’t be productive next year or injured at the
deadline.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I don’t know what they could
get for Ramirez, so I might be wrong, but I think it’s in their best interest
to move him.</span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I'm sure they'll at least
explore the market now and perhaps revisit it later.</span></div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-52233145018246902492013-11-23T19:57:00.001-06:002013-11-23T19:57:30.867-06:00What to do about the 2014 bullpen<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2012 the bullpen was one of
the Brewers’ major weak points. In 2013
it was quite a bit better. But, if one
thing is true above all else in baseball it’s that bullpen are volatile and the
2014 version figures to look very different.
Gone are the veterans (Axford, K-Rod, Gonzalez) and in their place is a
solid core of young (-ish in the case of Henderson & Gorzelanny) mostly home
grown talent. The ultimate make-up of
the bullpen is yet to be decided, but I think the Brewers are in a strong position. As of right now, I’ll bet 5 spots will be
taken by <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6653&position=P" target="_blank">Jim Henderson</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9939&position=P" target="_blank">Brandon Kintzler</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8532&position=P" target="_blank">Rob Wooten</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6244&position=P" target="_blank">Tom Gorzelanny</a>, and
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8728&position=P" target="_blank">Donovan Hand</a>. That leaves 2 spots left
to be filled. The question becomes how
to fill those spots. Fortunately, the
Brewers have a bevy of options.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I know
a lot of people that are against singing free agent relievers and want the
Brewers to simply build from within. I
understand where they’re coming from but I think they’re wrong on a couple of
different levels. Depth is an important,
and all too often overlooked, aspect of any bullpen. The Brewers should already be using at least
5 of their best in-house relievers. That
leaves <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9654&position=P" target="_blank">Michael Blazek</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526815&position=P" target="_blank">David Goforth</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8404&position=P" target="_blank">Alfredo Figaro</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa549496&position=P" target="_blank">Kevin Shackelford</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7754&position=P" target="_blank">MikeFiers</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9412&position=P" target="_blank">Hiram Burgos</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa390636&position=P" target="_blank">Michael Olmsted</a>, and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=787&position=P" target="_blank">Jose De La Torre</a> in AAA as back-up. It is possible <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10065&position=P" target="_blank">Johnny Hellweg</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10547&position=P" target="_blank">Jimmy Nelson</a>,
and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa503631&position=P" target="_blank">Ariel Pena</a> could serve in a relief role at some point, but they’ll
undoubtedly open the season as starters in AA/AAA. Goforth and Shackelford are
new 40-man roster additions. Making the
jump from AA to the majors is much easier for relievers than starters, but
they’ll likely need some time at AAA to finish polishing their stuff. If the final 2 bullpen spots were filled from
with-in, that would leave 6 to 9 relievers in reserve. Five of them (Goforth, Shackleford, Hellweg,
Nelson, & Pena), however, wouldn’t be available immediately so now we’re
talking about 4 back-up relievers. In
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0" target="_blank">2011 </a>the Brewers used 18 relievers. In
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0" target="_blank">2012 </a>they used 18 again and in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0" target="_blank">2013 </a>they used 16. Filling the bullpen from in-house options
only would leave the Brewers with a total of 16 obvious relief options. That’s cutting it too close.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As I
hinted at before, there is a seemingly ever growing contingent of Brewers fans
that believe signing free agent relievers is always a bad idea and especially
now since the Brewers are a long shot to compete. They’re not entirely wrong, it’s just a bad
idea to treat every reliever and every contract the same. One doesn’t even have to go back further than
the 2013 season to see what I’m talking about.
Despite my misgivings about Francisco Rodriguez the man, signing K-Rod
the reliever turned out to be a very savvy business decision by Doug
Melvin. At the trade deadline the
Brewers were able to turn a reliever that had no future with the club, into a
fringe prospect with the ceiling of an average third base regular. That’s HUGE. They were also able to trade Axford for what
is arguably a younger (ie. cost controlled) and less polished version of
himself. That’s not quite as big of a
deal, but it’s still valuable. It’s
exactly these types of intelligent moves the Brewers should be striving for and
why I think they should target relievers that offer a chance to be traded
mid-season. I think I’ve identified
three.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P" target="_blank">RyanMadson</a> has shown in the past he has the stuff to pitch in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P&season=0#advanced" target="_blank">high leverage</a>
situations. He also hasn’t pitched since
2011 due to elbow injuries. That’s a
huge red flag and very scary. It’s also
why he’ll be very cheap. The Angels decided to take a chance on him in 2013, signing him to a 1 year $3.5 million
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P#contract" target="_blank">contract</a>, which ultimately did not pay off.
That tells us whichever team signs him will do so for less than that. It’s possible he could sign a deal similar to
K-Rod’s which was a minor league deal with an opt out if he didn’t get put on
the major league roster by a certain date.
Even if they give him a guaranteed MLB contract, the cost will be low
enough, that were he to never pitch an inning for them, they wouldn’t be out
very much. The upside is two-fold. Should the Brewers end up competing he could
serve as another high leverage reliever.
Should the Brewers fall out of contention early enough, he could be
traded before the trade deadline. Even
if all they get is another reliever prospect like Blazek it’s worth it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4817&position=P" target="_blank">JesseCrain</a> is another buy low, high upside reliever.
He was much <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/trade-candidate-jesse-crain.html" target="_blank">sought after</a> at the 2013 deadline and even though he was
injured (shoulder), the Rays still traded for him. He never did throw a pitch for them and as a
result will carry that stigma with him into spring training. Unless a team decides it’s worth the risk to
overpay and sign him to a multi-year deal, it’s highly likely that he’ll want
to sign a one year deal to re-establish his value for next offseason. He’ll cost more than Madson, but he’s more of
sure thing. He offers the same <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4817&position=P&season=0#advanced" target="_blank">upside</a> as
Madson as well. I’d wager he signs for
something like 1 year $2-4 million with incentives. That’s something the Brewers can easily
afford.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s
been <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mil/brewers-send-burke-badenhop-to-boston-for-minor-leaguer-luis-ortega?ymd=20131122&content_id=64137026&vkey=news_mil" target="_blank">reported </a>that the Brewers are looking for another left-handed reliever to
pair with Gorzelanny. I’m against the
idea of left-handed specialists (LOOGY) and I’m not sure it’s necessary to have
more than 1 left-handed reliever in general, but specifically in the case of
the Brewers. Brandon Kintzler dominated
left-handed hitting in 2013. So, with
Gorzelanny, that’s two guys they already have to handle LHH. In any case, if they do sign one I’d prefer
he not have an extreme platoon split. I’d
sign <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5746&position=P" target="_blank">Eric O’Flaherty</a>. While he has been
more effective against lefties (7.43 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 0.33 HR/9, with a slash line
against of 198/262/269, and a 2.84 FIP), he wasn’t bad against righties (6.50
K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, with a slash against of 264/350/367, and a 3.89
FIP). The caveat is, he’s coming off of
Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready to pitch until around June. This of course means he’ll be very
cheap. The Brewers have enough depth to
carry an injured pitcher until mid-season.
It’s a slight risk, but one that could pay off big if he’s healthy. Clubs are always looking for left-handed
pitching and if the Brewers can sign him to a cheap one year deal with a team
option they might be able to trade that at some point for something
interesting. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One
other place the Brewers could find a piece for the bullpen is in the Rule 5
draft which will be held at the end of the winter meetings on December 12. <a href="http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2013/11/22/five-names-to-watch-in-the-rule-5-draft/" target="_blank">This </a>article from Milb.com identifies 3 potential
relief targets. I’m no expert on minor
leaguers so I can only go by what I’ve read.
Still, there’s not much to lose by drafting one of these guys. If they don’t work out then the Brewers are
only out a few thousand dollars which, in context of major league baseball,
truly is nothing. Taking a flyer on one
of these guys could act as a bridge for when Goforth or Shackelford are ready
for their call-ups or when O’Flaherty is ready to come off the DL. Then they’d have two options. They could keep the flyer and send down Hand
or someone else that has an option and may not be doing well. Or, they could give the flyer back to his
original team. These types of pick-up
don’t often work out. There’s a reason
these players are available in the first place.
Still, the chance that one of them could be a solid reliever or even a
spot starter isn’t out of the question.
It’s something to consider and with the recent trade of Burke Badenhop,
there is an open spot on the 40-man roster.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s
possible the Brewers could swing a trade like they did last year to get
Badenhop, but I don’t think that’s in their best interests. They have enough low to mid leverage
relievers. Also, a high leverage
reliever would cost too much in prospects.
The last place they can find relievers would be by claiming them on
waivers. In fact, they’ve already done
that with Jose De La Torre this year and Michael Olmsted last year. If they do that player would have to be put
on the 40-man roster. I’d prefer they
sign one of the free agents I mentioned.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bullpens
are volatile and relievers are fungible.
It’s often a bad idea to sign them long term. Still it’s important to have depth and while
the Brewers do have a number of interesting arms, they’ll need a couple more to
keep that depth intact. The right free
agent reliever on the right contract can be very valuable. They’ll need to be careful filling the 2 open
spots, but if they’re smart about it, and creative enough, with a little luck
and some money they could improve the club now and in the future.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-2655622480953309512013-11-22T14:10:00.000-06:002013-11-22T14:10:01.343-06:00Brewers trade Burke Badenhop for Luis Ortega<div class="MsoNormal">
Earlier today the Brewers traded <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9736&position=P" target="_blank">Burke Badenhop</a> to the Red
Sox for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657901&position=P" target="_blank">Luis Ortega</a>, a fringe LHP (non?)prospect. This is one of those trades that always flies
under the radar because it’s not exciting.
It’s certainly not Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler. Fans have a habit of glossing over these
types of trades, but they can end up being very important for a club like the
Brewers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Badenhop was a fine reliever in 2013. He had an ERA/FIP of 3.47/3.53 on the season
while putting up solid, if not spectacular peripherals: 6.06 K/9, 1.73 BB/9,
and 0.87 with a 51.1 GB%. Seeing that
you may wonder why the Brewers would want to give that up, but taking a closer
look reveals the answer. First off, he
displayed extreme splits between LHH (325/395/525, 5.08 FIP in 19.1 IP) and RHH
(220/247/525, 2.64 FIP in 43 IP). That’s
quite the platoon split, but at least it’s the strong side of it. He was also used mainly in low leverage
situations, where he was rather good (6.46 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, 2.60 FIP
in 47.1 IP). However he was rubbish in
middle (6.10 K/9, 4.35 BB/9, 2.61 HR/9, 6.92 FIP in 10.1 IP) and high leverage situations
(1.93 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 5.41 FIP in 4.2 IP). With that in mind, it's a good bet that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8728&position=P" target="_blank">Donovan Hand</a> can do something similar for league minimum.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Badenhop is entering his final arbitration year and was due
a raise to around <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-milwaukee-brewers.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">$2.1 million</a> making him a likely non-tender. So when you think about it that way, the
Brewers were able to trade nothing for something, and that’s great. Luis Ortega will be 21 next year and could
open the season in low-A Wisconsin for the Brewers either as a starter or reliever. For whatever reason, the Brewers system is
seriously lacking in LHP prospects so if he makes it to the major league club at
some point, in any role, it’ll be a win for the Brewers. Probably not a big win, but it’s better than
nothing at all. Worst-case scenario: He
becomes nothing, and the Brewers are out nothing. Likely best case: He becomes a major league reliever
for the Brewers that they can pay the league minimum for a few years allowing
them to allocate money elsewhere (He could remain a starter, but let’s be
conservative for now).</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-12060467220039473602013-11-19T09:49:00.000-06:002013-11-19T09:49:54.405-06:00Why the Brewers HAVE to Sign Bronson ArroyoNah. Just kidding.Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7097033604952595098.post-48935117257249209342013-11-18T18:44:00.000-06:002013-11-18T18:44:40.365-06:00Brewers Prospects Over the Next 5 Years<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m worried about the Brewers. I think their future is bleak if they don’t
begin a rebuild or start thinking outside the box when it comes to competing
now. Recently I took a look at <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-2014-milwaukee-brewers.html" target="_blank">what Ithink the Brewers are going to do this winter</a>.
Next I wrote about <a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/my-build-for-2014-brewers.html" target="_blank">what I would do instead</a>. Then to put that in perspective I wrote about
<a href="http://thebookofgorman.blogspot.com/2013/11/thinkits-fair-to-say-when-it-comes.html" target="_blank">what the Brewers could look like in 5 years</a>.
Still, I think that I haven’t fleshed out my concern well enough. In an effort to more fully understand the
Brewers predicament, I decided to take a look at the better prospects in their
system with relation to when the Brewers can be expected to call them up. I also noted which players would be leaving through free agency (that does not include arb-eligible players that could be non-tendered).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2014</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Departing Free Agents: Corey Hart, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike
Gonzalez</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10547&position=P" target="_blank">Jimmy Nelson</a>- SP: He saw some time in Milwaukee this year
but showed he’s not quite ready. He will
open 2014 at AAA and is likely the first called up for a spot start or injury
replacement. He has the ceiling of a
mid-rotation start, but could be more of a back-end guy. He could be in the starting rotation as soon
as 2015.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10065&position=P" target="_blank">Johnny Hellweg</a>- SP: Like Nelson, he spent some time in
Milwaukee but still needs time to polish his stuff. He’ll be starting at AAA in 2014 and could
pitch for the Brewers either out of the rotation or in the pen by mid-season. He has frontline potential, but if he can’t
improve his control he could wind up in the bullpen as a high leverage
reliever. If he can make the rotation
full time, it’ll be in 2015.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526815&position=P" target="_blank">David Goforth</a>- RP: During the regular season he started in
A+ before converting to relief in AA. He
pitched out of relief in the AFL as well.
He has a shot to break camp with Milwaukee in the spring, but it’s more
likely his relieves for AAA, possibly as their closer. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see him
with the Brewers at some point in 2014.
He has high leverage potential and should open 2015 with Milwaukee.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9654&position=P" target="_blank">Michael Blazek</a>- RP: Acquired from the Cardinals for John
Axford, he provides a similar profile to Milwaukee’s former closer. He has a big fastball that allows him to
strikeout a lot of guys, but he can be pretty wild. If can get that under control, he could be a
pretty solid reliever. He has a chance
to make the club out of Spring Training in 2014, but I think it’s more likely
he relieves for AAA. Like Goforth, if he
can, he should open 2015 with the Brewers</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa503631&position=P" target="_blank">Ariel Pena</a>- SP/RP: He started for AA but wasn’t terribly
effective. His high strikeout rate is
accompanied by a high walk rate. I expect
he’ll be converted to the pen sometime soon, but he may start for either AA or
AAA earlier in the 2014 season. Because
I think Goforth, Blazek, and others are higher on the reliever depth chart I
doubt we’ll see him get called up unless he really turns things around or the
Brewers are in a dire situation. It’s
possible he gets a September call-up out of the pen. If he does turn it around for himself, he
could pitch at the back-end of a rotation someday, but I think middle relief is
more likely.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526553&position=1B" target="_blank">Hunter Morris</a>- 1B: He is Milwaukee’s top first base prospect
but that’s more a condemnation of the Brewers’ farm system than an endorsement
of Morris. He struggled at AAA in 2013
and will have to repeat the level in 2014.
With 1B as wide open as it is, he’ll have a solid chance of getting a
call-up at some point. At the very least
I expect we’ll see him in September. If
he’s going to have a chance to stick with the Brewers it’s probably going to be
at first in a platoon, perhaps in 2015.</div>
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<b>2015 </b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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Departing Free Agents: Aramis Ramirez (if option declined),
Yovani Gallardo (if opt declined), Tom Gorzelanny, Nori Aoki</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa455475&position=P" target="_blank">Taylor Jungmann</a>- SP: Jungmann was supposed to have frontline
potential, but has shown none of that talent so far. His fastball is several miles slower than
when drafted and he hasn’t had very good strikeout numbers. In 2013 he pitched poorly in AA. He went to the AFL but a groin injury
sidelined him for most of it. It’s
possible he opens 2014 in AA again, but I think they’ll have him start in
AAA. I expect he’ll spend the entire year
there. If all goes well, we could see
him in Milwaukee sometime in 2015 but it’ll be as a back-end starter.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa501481&position=P" target="_blank">Damien Magnifico</a>- RP: Magnifico has a big time
fastball. I’m talking triple
digits. He’s starting right now, likely
to allow him to work on his secondary pitches.
He’ll open 2014 in AA. He may
continue starting or the Brewers might begin his conversion to the pen. If they do that it’s possible he could split
time between AA and AAA. At the very
least he should make it to AAA by 2015 and then he’s just a phone call away
from the majors. </div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa502733&position=OF" target="_blank">Mitch Haniger</a>- RF: He spent the regular season between A and
A+ before going to the AFL. All things
considered he had a pretty good season.
It’s likely he’ll start 2014 in AA and could end it in AAA. Regardless, in 2015 he should begin in AAA
and could be a mid-season call-up for the Brewers. He has the potential to be a solid average
regular in right field. Short of that he
could be a solid back-up capable of playing all three outfield positions. If he pans out, he could be the starting
right fielder in 2016. There is a slight
chance that he could tear through AA and AAA in 2014 and be a threat for the
starting job in 2015, but I think that’s being overly optimistic.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa597968&position=1B/3B" target="_blank">Nicky Delmonico</a>- 1B/3B: Delmonico was acquired from the
Orioles for Francisco Rodriguez. He
split the season between the Orioles and Brewers’ minor league A+
affiliate. The Brewers are hoping he can
stick at third base but if he can’t he’ll have to move to first. His defense is fringy at third base and his
bat is fringy at first base. He’ll
probably spend all of 2014 at AA. In
2015 he should start at AAA and could be a midseason call-up. If all things go perfectly for him, he’ll be
the starting 3B for Milwaukee in 2016.
It’s probably more likely he ends up at first base or in a utility role.</div>
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<b>2016 </b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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Departing Free Agents: Aramis Ramirez (if ‘15 opt was picked
up), Yovani Gallardo (if ’15 opt was picked up) Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa597780&position=P" target="_blank">Jorge Lopez</a>- SP- Lopez has the potential to be a solid
middle of the rotation starter. He
pitched in A-ball with mediocre results.
He’s young and I expect the Brewers will move him through the system at
a slow pace. If that’s true he should
open 2016 in AAA. It so far away it’s
hard to tell if he’ll see any time in Milwaukee at all, but it’s possible he
gets a spot start or a call-up in September.
The best case scenario for Lopez is probably as a regular starter somewhere
in the middle of the 2017 rotation.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa578205&position=P" target="_blank">Jed Bradley</a>- SP/RP- Bradley, like Jungmann, was supposed to
have #2 potential. Unfortunately he has
been even more disappointing than Jungmann.
He’s only made it as far as A+, which he repeated in 2013. Health and durability is a big question for
him. He pitched 107 innings in 2012 and
only 78 in 2013. The earliest we could
see him is probably mid-season in 2016, but it might be as a reliever. If he
reaches his full potential, he can probably serve as a 4 or 5 starter for the
Brewers in 2017.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa502154&position=DH/OF" target="_blank">Victor Roache</a>- LF: He was dealing with a broken wrist when
drafted so he didn’t play in 2012. He
spent all of 2013 in A-ball. Considering
the injury he played reasonably well, but it’s going to slow his progression
through the minors. If the Brewers keep
him on the slow track all the way through the minors, he’ll first reach AAA at
the start of the 2016 season. In that
scenario he could be a mid-season call-up the same year. It’s possible he starts moving through the
system more quickly and if that’s true he could fight for a starting spot at
the major league club in 2016. Again, I
think that’s being pretty optimistic and it’s more likely 2017 is his first
full year. He has massive power, but he
needs to figure out how to hit well enough to utilize that power in-game. He could be an above average left fielder.</div>
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<b>2017</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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Departing Free Agents: Jonathan Lucroy (if option declined),
Carlos Gomez</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737560&position=P" target="_blank">Devin Williams</a>- SP: He has the highest ceiling of any
Brewers pitching prospect. He could be a
#2 starter. He’s quite young so his
arrival is surely going to be a long way down the road. He’ll move through the lower minors slowly
but could accelerate once he reaches AA.
The earliest he would reach AAA would be 2016, but I wouldn’t expect to
see him in Milwaukee that year. If he
really pitches well he could have a chance to open 2017 with the Brewers, but
it’s more likely he’ll be a mid-season call-up.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa596917&position=SS" target="_blank">Orlando Arcia</a>- SS: An injury has slowed his
progression. He’s very young so he’ll
move through the system slowly anyway.
He’ll play 2016 at AAA and could be the starting shortstop for the
Brewers in 2017. It might all depend on
his bat as he’s likely to be a plus defender at the position.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657979&position=OF" target="_blank">Tyrone Taylor</a>- CF: Another young player, he may be the best
prospect in the system. He has the
potential to be an above average center fielder. Because he is so young and Carlos Gomez
should be entrenched at the position, I expect the Brewers won’t feel the need
to rush Taylor. He’ll open 2016 at AAA,
but probably won’t see any time at the major league level unless it’s as a
September call-up. He has an excellent
chance to be the starting center fielder in 2017.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657922&position=C/DH" target="_blank">Clint Coulter</a>- C: Hey look!
It’s the Brewers only catching prospect.
He has a long journey ahead of him and he will have to vastly improve
defensively to stay behind the plate. I
expect the Brewers to give him every chance to do so. It may be slow going, but he’s young and it’ll
be worth it if he can remain as a catcher.
I’m not sure when he’ll reach AAA, but he could open 2017 there. In the best case scenario, he gets a
midseason call-up and is starting in 2018.</div>
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737623&position=3B/SS" target="_blank">Tucker Neuhaus</a>- 3B: He’s another young guy that could be an
above average starter at his position.
Currently playing shortstop, he’ll likely move to 3B before he reaches
the majors. He should open 2017 in AAA
but could get a call-up. If things go
well, he could be the starting third baseman in 2018.</div>
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The first thing I find striking is how far away potential
starting position players and, to a lesser extent, starting pitchers are. Nelson and Hellweg are the first up and their
first full season would come in 2015. Morris could be the starting first baseman, but I think he'll need a platoon partner. It
looks a bit better in 2016 when Hainger and Delmonico have a chance to open the
season with the Brewers. They will fill
areas of need, but neither will be more than average at their positions. That’s not a bad thing, mind you. Jungmann is there too, but I’m not too
thrilled with his potential anymore. Things
start to look better in 2017. Jorge
Lopez could be exciting if he can be a #3 starter. Roache and especially Taylor could be above
average, but the outfield might be crowded with Braun, Gomez, Haniger, Khris
Davis, Logan Schafer, and Caleb Gindl all possibilities. Of course there are worse things than having
an excess of talent. It’s not until 2018
that we see a large influx of quality starting talent. Devin Williams, Orlando Arcia, Tucker
Neuhaus, and Clint Coulter could all be looking at their first full years.</div>
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The second thing I notice is there isn’t a lot of very good
talent before 2017. Nelson, Hellweg,
Haniger, and Delmonico all provide intriguing options, but not a one of them
projects to be above average. All of
them may in fact be well below average.
Nelson might only be a back-end starter. Hellweg may not be a starter at all.
Both Haniger and Delmonico (along with Morris) may only work as utility players. There are several relievers with high leverage
potential, but they’re still just relievers.
Lopez and Roache could see the majors in 2016, but that would be
mid-season and that’s not something you can count on when you’re constructing
your team in the offseason.</div>
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So many of the Brewers really good prospects are so far
away. A decent portion of the current
major league roster is either aging or leaving through free agency before then
which will make it harder to compete over the next few years. It only makes sense to stock the farm system
with prospects that can start helping around 2016-2018. They’ll only have so many opportunities to do
that. I’m worried that they’re going to
waste those opportunities on a slim chance at making the post-season, leaving
them with an ever sliming opportunity to compete in the future.</div>
Derek Harvey (@D_J_Harvey on Twitter)http://www.blogger.com/profile/03289328766995438175noreply@blogger.com0