Brewers/Pirates series review - moar runz

Results:
Monday, 4/29 Brewers 10, Pirates 4
Tuesday, 4/30 Brewers 12, Pirates 8
Wednesday, 5/1 Pirates 6, Brewers 4

Win Probability Stars
4/30 Yuniesky Betancourt homered to right (+.189 WPA)
4/30 Martin Maldonado doubled to left, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez scored (+.175 WPA)
4/30 Jean Segura homered to right center (+.169 WPA)

The Pittsburgh Pirates played baseball games in Milwaukee, which means the Pittsburgh Pirates lost baseball games. Even with Wednesday's loss, the Brewers are a stunning 46-8 against the Pirates at Miller Park. Someday, the Pirates will be better than the Brewers. Someday, the Pirates will be able to win games at Miller Park. But that day isn't here yet; the Pirates still look like a AAA team whenever they set foot into the Dairy State. Their normally solid pitching was awful, as a (sort of) watered-down Brewers offense hung 24 runs (with 10 dingers) on them in three games

Pittsburgh actually scored a fair amount of runs in this series, and left fielder Starling Marte proved to be a significant thorn in the Brewers' side. He hit big home runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, including one off a 1-1 pitch from John Axford that wasn't even in the strike zone. It's hard to take much of the rest of their offense seriously, seeing as it's composed of a bunch of defense-first guys or platoon players, but the Pirates might have something in Marte and that McCutchen guy.

The Brewers might also have something in Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, who went a combined 11-22 with four walks and four homers in the series. It's hard to put into words how great those two have been, providing tremendous offensive production and elite defensive positions. The fact that the Brewers are over .500 without Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart is pretty incredible, and both Gomez and Segura are huge reasons for that. Both will regress at some point, but they've both been pretty fun to watch at the plate while providing excellent defense.

I suppose this is the part of the review where I should mention Yuniesky Betancourt (who had a big series of his own), but I feel like his production is some elaborate hoax. He has not changed one bit at the plate, yet somehow is on pace for 44 home runs and 137 RBI's. He's also played remarkably not-awful defense, which probably has something to do with playing at positions that are not shortstop. There's really no analysis to be given, because there's no explanation. Smoke 'em while you got 'em, I guess.

MVP: Carlos Gomez

I've already mentioned how good Gomez, Segura, and Betancourt were in this series, but Gomez takes the cake. Despite Carlos' career OBP south of .300, it's gotten to the point where it seems like some sort of witchcraft on the opposing pitcher's part when Gomez makes an out. I expected his power surge from last year to continue, but he's been a much better hitter overall at the plate, spraying the ball all over the field.

There's enough of a track record to suggest that Carlos Gomez will turn back into Carlos Gomez at some point, but either way that contract extension was a steal.

LVP: John Axford

This was a tough pick seeing as his meltdown on Wednesday wasn't all his fault (an infield hit and an error contributed to two of the runs), but it's the only negative in the series that sticks out. His homer problem doesn't appear to be going away. Honorable mention to Marco Estrada, who pitched poorly on Tuesday night but opposing starter James McDonald was hilariously worse.

Play of the Series: Rickie Weeks' three-run homer

It was a big moment in a close and exciting game, and it felt especially significant for the slumping Weeks. Whether it turns out to be a "slump-buster" or not, it's hard not to be happy for Weeks for producing in a big spot after failing in similar situations for most of the season.

What's Next

The Brewers host a four-game series against the evil baby-eating Cardinals, who come into town after winning two of three against the Cincinnati Reds. Considering the Cardinals are really good, splitting the series would be something of a small victory. The Brewers will have to face Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller, which sucks, but they will also get Aramis Ramirez back, which is awesome. Brewers fans can only hope that Mitchell Boggs will figure prominently into this series.

Probable starters
5/2 Westbrook vs. Peralta
5/3 Miller vs. Lohse
5/4 Wainwright vs. Gallardo
5/5 Garcia vs. Estrada

Brewers-Padres/Dodgers series review: "ROAD TRIP"

 

Results: 
Monday, 4/22 Brewers 7, Padres 1
Tuesday, 4/23 Brewers 6, Padres 3
Wednesday, 4/24 Padres 2, Brewers 1

Friday, 4/26 Dodgers 7, Brewers 5
Saturday 4/27 Brewers 6, Dodgers 4
Sunday 4/28 Dodgers 2, Brewers 0

Win Probability Stars: 
 4/27, Carlos Gomez homered, Norichika Aoki scored (+.440 WPA)
4/22, Ryan Braun homered to left, Rickie Weeks scored (+.187 WPA)
4/24, Jedd Gyorko lined out to shortstop, Yonder Alonso out at third (Marco Estrada pitching). (-.174 WPA)

Good day, Brewers fans. Have we all accepted Yuniesky Betancourt as our lord and savior, yet?

Worship him, peons. WORSHIP HIM.

It's been quite a month for your hometown team, capped off by a rather entertaining journey out west to Southern California. The Crew unfortunately saw their winning streak end at 9 games with a loss in San Diego last Wednesday (those free burgers may be just a pipe dream at this point), but still are in a stretch where they've won 12 of their last 15 games since starting the season with a 2-8 record.

The series against the Padres was certainly not without its moments, from Kyle Lohse and his Picasso-like finger to some rather suspect umpiring, which some of you may have had the pleasure of reading my glowing analysis of. I understand that some of those calls we're deemed correct in retrospect, but that doesn't detract from the point that the umpires made themselves front and center throughout each of those games. Either way, a strong showing from the Brewers starting pitching and offense helped them win 2 out of 3, just coming a couple hits short of a sweep in the final game of the series.

The Dodgers series, on the other hand, was not as pretty for the Brewers. The pitching wasn't as strong, which wasted a good offensive performance in game one before running into the buzzsaw commonly known as Clayton Kershaw. It's okay, though, many offenses struggle to score runs against Kershaw. Going .500 on a road trip is nothing to cry about. An old adage goes that in order to be successful, you want to win half your games on the road and have a winning record at home. Do that, and you'll likely end in a good place.

MVP: Carlos Gomez

For almost two weeks now, Carlos Gomez has been doing nothing but perform at a high level. He went 9-20 with 3 2B, a HR, a SB and took an alarmingly high (for Gomez) 3 BB during this last road trip, raising his season line to .338/.376/.538. He's been one part of what feels like a three-man wrecking crew with Yuniesky Betancourt and Jean Segura over the past 10+ games, with the occasional case of Ryan Braun doing Ryan Braun things.

As discussed before, the Brewers invested a lot in Gomez after a breakout season in 2012, and this sort of performance to date has to have Melvin and his pals in the FO smiling brightly.

LVP: Rickie Weeks
It just can't be ignored any longer. For the second April in a row, Weeks is just not getting the job done. His struggles can be pinpointed to a couple factors in the way pitchers are approaching him. He's seeing a ton of first pitch fastballs, watching almost half of them go by and not punishing the other half. Then when he's chasing the count, pitchers are consistently working him low and away, inducing his usual strikeouts and a number of weak grounders.

The most confusing part of all this is Roenicke's refusal to give Weeks a day off. Plenty of fans are  already firmly aboard the Scooter wagon and have been calling for this as a permanent move, but even those who aren't can't understand what benefit it is to have Weeks press day in and day out. It's not to say riding pine is some miracle cure, but it can certainly help a player slow things down, as we've witnessed since Gomez got his day off a couple weeks ago. Hopefully one way or another, Rickie gets his act together. If the Brewers are going anywhere this year, it's very likely not without his help.

Play of the Series:

The real play of this road trip was probably that Maldonado weirdness that ended the win streak, but who wants to analyze that? Instead, here's some great defensive plays from Jean Segura who seemed to have 50 every game.

What's Next: 
Marco Estrada vs. James McDonald
Hiram Burgos vs. Jeanmar Gomez

At the time I'm writing this, the Brewers have already wiped the floor with Wandy Rodriguez and destroyed his sparkling early season numbers, so 1-0 so far (woo)!

McDonald was the Pirates breakout pitcher last year, but like any other Pirates pitcher at Miller Park, doom will await him as soon as the umpire yells "play ball."

I honestly know nothing about the other pitcher, other than his name sounds like he made it up in an effort to steal the current magic surrounding Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. The Pirates might win, but not both, because this is Miller Park and they just can't.

Welcome to the Ump Show!

I was ready to write a completely different post today, but that will have to wait. Instead, I’d like to discuss the officiating we just witnessed this series. A bit asinine to be complaining about umpires after your team just won 2 of 3 on the road, but sometimes you can’t avoid the elephant in the room.

And boy, did we have a doozy of a crew on our hands these past three days. Gary Darling and company were well on display from game, starting with refusing to review a foul ball hit off the pole here:

Notice anything different about this photo? Let's have a closer look:

The left side of the Western Metal Supply building doesn't have an off color yellow stripe, does it? That's because this photo was taken in 2008. That means that the Padres decided they needed to paint a pointless stripe on the foul side of the building AFTER home run replay was instilled.

Even still, the flat out refusal by the home plate umpire to use a tool developed to make his job easier  was borderline juvenile.

Then the next night, Darling blows a strike call behind the plate, then appeals down to his third base umpire who also misses call. Oh, and then Roenicke gets ejected for arguing without stepping a foot out of the dugout.

Yes, the third base umpire thought he held up here.

And finally in game 3, the boys in black added a cherry on top by squashing the Brewers rally with this whopper:

I do get unnerved now and again by officiating, and there are times when I’m wrong. I’ll openly admit that. But this time? I think I speak for both the Brewers and Padres fan bases when I say that the all around umpiring was nothing short of abysmal.

Behold the strike zone from last night for Marco Estrada:

The right corner of the plate was closed for construction, apparently.

I understand each umpire dictates a ball and a strike in their own way, but good lord, Estrada couldn’t get the right side of the plate if he tried. It’s a minor argument that happens almost every game, but it's still ridiculous how badly the zone can fluctuate to this degree. And all of this doesn't even include the calls at first base, where any Padre or Brewers who wasn't clearly safe stood no chance of being called so. And actually, it was the Padres who got more of the raw end on these calls.

Look, I’ve never umpired in my life. I imagine it’s a bit of a stressful job, and it’s a national pastime to give grief to the guys who actually do it. But man, there’s making questionable calls, and straight up refusing do your job correctly. We unfortunately had to witness the latter the past few days.

The Curious Case of John Axford

Brewers reliever/former closer John Axford was something of a lightening rod during the first week of the season, and rightfully so. He was awful. He was rightfully removed from the closer role, and then rightfully removed from a leverage role. Most fans and analysts thought he was done. Then something strange happened - he stopped sucking instantly. From the Cardinals series on, he hasn't given up a run. While 5 1/3 innings is admittedly a tiny sample, he has given up two baserunners in those 5+ innings (with six strikeouts) after giving up 11 baserunners in his first 3 1/3 innings. That's an alarming difference.

Of course, Axford has dealt in alarming differences before, being a dominant reliever in 2010-2011 before being mostly awful in 2012. Digging into the stats, there were some changes from '10/'11 to 2012. His fastball velocity and strikeouts went up, but so did his home run and walk rates. His left-on-base % went down, which signifies some bad luck, but his BABIP wasn't abnormally high. He actually gave up less fly balls than in years prior, but more of them went over the fence, and he gave up way more line drives. That's a lot to process, but in the end it's all a lot of noise. Ultimately, his core numbers weren't all that different, and Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote an excellent piece detailing it. Sullivan ultimately suggests that Axford had a tremendous run of good luck followed by smaller run of bad luck. That's certainly possible, but I don't see much in the numbers that suggest he was a victim of outright bad luck; the next step is to look at his stuff.

For most of his career, he has been a fastball-curveball guy who's occasionally fiddled with a slider. During his first full season in 2010, he threw the slider nearly as much as his curve (16.2% to 18.8%), but in 2011-12 he cut down on the slider usage, throwing it less than 10% of the time while increasing his fastball usage and using the curve as his primary breaking ball. 2011 was undoubtedly his best season, and the curve was a huge weapon for him. He threw it for a strike, and it drew it's share of whiffs.

With his curve working so well, hitters couldn't sit on his fastball. Which is important, because Major League hitters can hit fastballs pretty well, even really fast ones. Now let's look at 2012.

You'll notice that his curve was far less effective. He couldn't throw it for strikes as often as he did the year prior, as it's strike percentage went from 55.36% to 45.88%. Hitters were more likely to lay off his curve and sit fastball, which means harder contact and more balls flying over walls. It is at this point that I will mention that he's more or less pushed his lonely slider aside.

 "Grandpa, I'm cold." 

It's not like he never threw it, but he didn't use the slider often enough to make much of an impact. The start to 2013 was more of the same. By digging through his game logs, I determined that he used his frisbee once in his first three appearances, all three of them being nightmare outings.. In those same outings, his fastball and curveball were consistently up in the zone, where the hitters feast. I don't know if he was overcompensating to make sure his curveball was a strike, but the results weren't good. 

                                                    

Starting with his fourth appearance, Axford had made a noticeable change; more sliders. The results in that particular outing weren't good, but the next six outings were.

After using the slider once in his first 52 pitches, he's used it over 20% of the time since. What's important about this isn't so much the quality of the pitch, but the fact that it's another pitch to show hitters to keep them guessing. As you can see from the plot above, his slider isn't a strike all that often, yet it draws whiffs over 29% of the time it's thrown. To give you some perspective, the average swinging strike rate in all of baseball so far in 2013 is 9.3%.

This all comes with an enormous disclaimer of small sample size and whatnot, but I think this still paints something of a picture as to the adjustments Axford has made in the first few weeks of the season. Eventually hitters will probably stop chasing the slider, but by then it's possible he will have fixed his curveball or made other adjustments. If nothing else, he's at least focused on a third pitch to keep hitters off-balance, making our proclamation of his death maybe a little premature.

PITCH f/x data courtesy of Brooks Baseball and Texas Leaguers 

Brewers/Cubs series review - Taking advantage of mistakes

Results:
Friday, 4/19 Brewers 5, Cubs 4
Saturday, 4/20 Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Sunday, 4/21 Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Win Probability Stars:
4/21, Ryan Braun homered to left, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jean Segura scored (+.350 WPA)
4/19, Ryan Braun homered to left, Norichika Aoki and Jean Segura scored (+.131 WPA)
4/21, Alfonso Soriano grounded into a double play, Anthony Rizzo out at second (Wily Peralta pitching) (-.108 WPA)

Despite the sweep, the Brewers didn't necessarily dominate the series. Every game was close, but the Brewers won by taking advantage of mistakes made by the Cubs both in the field and on the mound. Chicago committed six errors (at least one in each game) and every one would eventually result in runs for the Brewers. Errors are subjective and kind of a silly statistic to evaluate defense, but every one of the Cubs' mistakes were worthy of the title. Of course, the Brewers made one incredible blunder of their own (more on that later), but were able to overcome it.

The other story of the series was the Brewers' pitching. They got quality starts out of Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta, and an excellent debut (5 IP, 1 ER) out of fresh call-up Hiram Burgos. The bullpen contributed 9 1/3 innings giving up only one run. The offense was merely okay despite the run totals, mostly having a couple big innings surrounded by stretches of nothingness.

All told, it was a pretty bland series for the Brewers, which is odd considering it was a sweep. But beating the #Cubes is always pretty sweet.

MVP: Ryan Braun

Braun hit big home runs in two of the games, so this was a pretty easy choice. Overall, Braun's had an odd start to the season, basically amounting to a three-true-outcomes player (14 hits, 5 HR, 10 BB, 20 K in 60 plate appearances). He also sports an incredibly low 3.3 line drive %, which is bizarre. I'm sure it's small-sample weirdness, but it's still strange to see on his stat sheet.

LVP: Alex Gonzalez

Rickie Weeks was under consideration, but he still worked some deep counts and drew his walks. Gonzalez went 0-for-the series, his only bright spot being an RBI groundout. It's been a commonly held belief that Yuniesky Betancourt will be the odd man out when Aramis Ramirez or Jeff Bianchi return from the DL, but Gonzalez has played the worst of the bench players by far, and hasn't been as good with the glove as expected.

Play of the Series: Jean Segura's baserunning decision

This is the blunder I was referring to earlier. It seems weird to pick a bad play for this award, but it stands out more than anything else. Braun's game-winner on Sunday will probably be forgotten in a few days, but Segura's retreat back to first after being picked off trying to steal third is without a doubt the strangest thing I've ever seen in a baseball game. And I've seen this (hey, Kyle Lohse was involved).

What's Next:

The Brewers head to glorious Petco Park in San Diego, looking to add to their 7-game winning streak. Petco hasn't been kind to the Brewers lately but Braun did hit three bombs and a triple in one game there last year, so there's that.

Probable starters
4/22 Lohse vs. Marquis
4/23 Gallardo vs. Richard
4/24 Estrada vs. Volquez

Brewers/Giants Series Review - "They Might Be Giants..."

Results:

Tuesday, 4/16 Brewers 10, Giants 8

Wednesday, 4/17 Brewers 4, Giants 3

Thursday, 4/18 Brewers 7, Giants 2

Win Probability Added stars

April 16th, Rickie Weeks (+.143 WPA)

April 17th, Carlos Gomez (+.342 WPA)

April 18th, Yovani Gallardo (+.164 WPA)

(Apologies on the delay, faithful followers; had a hard time focusing on baseball last night, as many of you were, I'm sure.)

6 days ago, the Brewers were 2-8 and in the midst of a humiliating offensive futility streak. Things at the time looked like they would never be good again.

Today, the Brewers are 6-8 after completing a sweep against the reigning World Series champs, and are riding a 4-game winning streak. Amazing what kind of difference a week can make, right?

Things finally started to click for the Crew this series, and it's possible that the Giants still don't know what hit them, although I imagine that they really just wanted to get back to Constantinople by the end of game 3. Their pitching, a normally stout rotation backed by a nasty bullpen, took an absolute beating at the hands of the Brewers bats (thanks largely in part to the bottom part of the order). When you're getting bludgeoned by two players with a combined .292 career OBP, you know it's not your week.

Yes, Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betancourt took it upon themselves to pick up the Brewers at seemingly every turn this past series. Roenicke's benching of Gomez last Saturday may have just done the trick for speedy center fielder, because since then he has gone 10-15 at the plate with 6 runs and 2 extra-base hits. It certainly is a promising turn for him to start producing this way after signing a 3-year extension this past offseason worth $24 million. The Brewers will be the first to tell you that they're not paying Gomez to be a world beater offensively, but they certainly expect him to stick close to the 105 wRC+ he posted with the club last season, which in unison with his good defense in center field valued him as a 3-win player. It also helps when you're getting the benefit of calls like this.

Foul ball? Probably. But hey, long live the "human error"!

Gomez isn't the only Brewer to put an early slump behind him after recently signing a contract extension. Also dating back to the game against the Cardinals last Sunday, Jonathan Lucroy's bat has  come back to life a bit, with his most recent stretch having him go 7-17 with 2 HRs. Luc signed his 5-year extension before the beginning of the 2012 season, but after missing a good amount of time with a fractured hand last year, there's a little bit of an expectation for him to meet in order to feel like he's earned his contract. The reason for Lucroy's early struggles? His line drive % has been down just a wee bit from his career average.

A concern? Not really. His fly ball % has actually been up just a tick, and as one would expect, the cold weather has not been allowing those fly balls to carry much of anywhere so far...unless you're Justin Upton.

The object about to enter this image is now in orbit.

Kyle Lohse Watch: After another nice outing by the Brewers recently acquired pitcher, it is in this blogger's opinion that this Lohse thing might just work out. It's still rather unlikely he'll finish the year with an ERA under 3, but perhaps we all underestimated just how effective he could be. I recalled reading a couple pieces on how Lohse has reinvented himself into a groundball pitcher, utilizing a nice sinker/slider/changeup combo that have been giving opponents fits. His ability to throw his breaking pitches for strikes, though, has definitely been as big of a factor in his success, as this graph will better illustrate from his past three starts.

Mmmmm that's good offspeed.

We'll see just how long Lohse keeps this kind of success going, but continuing to pound the zone is a good way to maintain it, especially if he wants to be a real leader.

MVP: Yuniesky Betancourt

I feel so dirty for typing that. Each letter burned more than the one previous to it.

However, it's hard to argue he didn't play a big role this past series. He did. Whenever there was a big hit, Yuni had it. He put the Giants in a hole each game, whether it was scoring the first run of game two, or tacking on to an already established lead.

Whether I or anyone else would like to admit it, Yuni has been effective as a replacement at first base, and is currently carrying an .805 OPS in this very early season. Will he sustain that number? Definitely not. This is still Betancourt we're talking about. But if the Brewers needed someone to step up in the absence of their two All-Star corner infielder, Yuni has answered that call.

LVP: Alex Gonzalez

Things are definitely going well when it's tough to pick someone for this category. It's really a silly category, actually, since there usually is never one sole hero or goat in a baseball game. You win as a team and lose as a team.

However, I'm not here to talk semantics. I'm here to talk about who has been cold as ice. You might want to put Rickie Weeks here, but I've actually seen promising signs out of Weeks recently, who I'd be so willing to predict is going to break out of his slump as soon as tonight. Gonzalez, on the other hand, looks like a 36-year old utility player trying to keep his head above water. His plate approach is resulting in him making some weak outs, his defense in the field has been surprisingly shaky, and all in all, he just hasn't been very good.

That's not to say he couldn't turn things around, but it wouldn't be too surprising to find that Father Time has finally caught up with old Seabass, and he may not have much left to give even once he does "get it going." The Brewers are certainly fortunate that Jean Segura is playing well early, because if not, the shortstop situation could have been pretty sticky going forward.

Play of the Series: 

Yuni hit a grand slam, Gallardo hit a home run and Segura played some great defense. My play of the series though? Lalli's game-winning hit on Wednesday.

Talk about a cool moment. A minor league journeyman who fights for a roster spot year in and year out gets a big chance, and delivers. Oh, and it was his first hit for the Brewers, to boot. Good for him. We can talk all we want about his value to the club and what not, but it's hard not to root for somebody who's really just willing to do anything it takes to help a major league club succeed.

Hats off to you, Mr. Lalli. Hopefully that's just one of many big hits for you this season.

What's Next:

The Brewers continue their homestand tonight against the lovable losers from the northside of Chicago. The Cubs come in at 5-9 after winning just 2 of their last 6 games. Their best story this season, so far, has been the success of their de facto ace, Jeff Samazaazazaajjazjjsqaza. The Brewers will send Marco Estrada to the mound to face off against him this evening as they search for their 5th straight win.

4/19 - Estrada vs. Samardzija

4/20 - Burgos vs. Jackson

4/21 - Peralta vs. Feldman

Burgos up, Fiers down (below)

The Brewers made a roster move Thursday night, sending struggling right-hander Mike Fiers down to AAA Nashville and replacing him with another right-hander in Hiram Burgos. Fiers had only made one start this year, but it was a remarkably awful one, surrendering six runs (with two homers) in five innings and striking out only one of the 25 batters he faced against the Diamondbacks. He also made two relief appearances, one clean and one poor, neither featuring a strikeout. His command has been off and he's been unable to find the corners of the zone, resulting in either a pitch outside the zone that hitters won't chase or pitch in the meaty part of the zone that batters hit hard. The lack of whiffs is particularly troubling for a pitcher whose success is largely dependent on strikeouts and doesn't have the stuff to generate loads of weak contact in the form of grounders or pop-ups. Fiers has struggled mightily since last August, and just barely won a rotation spot this season despite a rough Spring. Fiers started slow early in 2012 before catching fire after his late-May call-up, so there's still plenty of hope he can fix his issues and turn it around.

As for Burgos, he's something of a late bloomer in the Brewers' system who's cut from the same cloth as fellow starter Marco Estrada. Hiram is coming off a tremendous year where he had a 3.12/1 K/BB ratio to go with a 1.95 ERA in 171 innings spread across three levels of the minors. He has a four-pitch mix which features a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball velocity is nothing special, sitting 88-92, but his bread-and-butter is his changeup, which he can throw to hitters on both sides of the plate. He has good command of all his pitches and keeps the walks in check, but might be homer prone in the majors due to his flyball tendencies. With Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg waiting in the minors along with Fiers and Mark Rogers likely coming back at some point, Burgos' stay in the majors is directly correlated with how well he pitches. So, good luck Hiram.