Garza's contract details; Updated payroll projection; Updated deferred installments

Today the specific details of Matt Garza's contract came out.  Previously I had believed Garza would receive $12.5 million because of this tweet from Jon Heyman.  While technically true (or in other words, wrong) it's been revealed that $2 million will be deferred from each of the 4 guaranteed years.  Cot's Contracts lists that these payments ($2 million each) are to be made from 2018-2021.  There are also performances bonuses at $500,000 for starting 30 games and another $500,000 for reaching 190 innings.  The details regarding the vesting year have also been revealed and it's a bit convoluted.  His option will vest 1. He starts 110 games in over the course of the four guaranteed contract years (2014-2017), 2. He isn't on the disabled list at the end of 2017, and 3. He pitches at least 115 innings in 2017.  If the option does not vest, it becomes a team option.  The Brewers can exercise that option for $5 million unless Garza spent 130 days on the DL in any 183 day period (full season) in which case the team option is for $1 million!  With the complete details revealed I like this deal even more.  The one caveat here is that there must have been something in Garza's physical exam that suggested a contract of this type was warranted.  In other words, the Brewers believe an injury is a real risk.  I think it's a risk worth taking.

Now that we know Garza's contract includes deferred money I wanted to update both the payroll projection.

Updated Payroll: $93.075 million

I also wanted to include Garza's money in the analysis of Brewers' deferred installments over the years.  Lohse's exact deferred payment installments were also brought to my attention by a reader so I included those.

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022-31
Braun							$1.8 M
Ramirez		$3.0 M	$3.0 M
Lohse	$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$3.0 M
Garza			$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0 M
Total	$2.0 M	$5.0 M	$8.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0M	$2.0 M	$1.8 M

For most of those years the deferred payments shouldn't matter too much.  However 2017 and especially 2018 could be problematic.  That is around the time when some of the Brewers' better prospects are expected to arrive at the majors, so perhaps that will help mitigate this issue.  Still, they're running out of room to defer money in the near future.

How does the Brewers' 2014 rotation stack up to their best in recent memory?

     It's been a long time since I've endorsed a free agent signing by the Brewers, but I endorse the Garza signing.  It's made the rotation quite a bit deeper than it has been in a while and given me reason to be excited for the season.  This excitement and optimism has me wondering just how good things might be and naturally I began to think how this rotation compares to the best rotation the Brewers have had this century.  I am of course talking about the 2011 rotation.
     That rotation consisted of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson.  Marco Estrada also filled in on occasion.  It's easy to look at the names in that rotation and dismiss the 2014 version as being anything but close.  Zack Greinke is worlds better than the best pitcher on the current roster.  But it's important to realize that we're not comparing potential.  We know what the 2011 rotation did.  So what we're really talking about is comparing the potential of the 2014 rotation with the actual performance of the 2011 rotation.
     The following are the results of that season:

Zack Greinke	171.2 IP	3.87 ERA
Yovani Gallardo	207.1 IP	3.52 ERA
Shaun Marcum	200.2 IP	3.54 ERA
Randy Wolf	212.1 IP	3.69 ERA
Chris Narveson	158.2 IP	4.45 ERA
Marco Estrada	41.1   IP	3.70 ERA

That's a very good rotation, but maybe the most impressive thing about it is the fact that it only used 6 different pitchers.  I have a hard time seeing that happen again, ever.  It's also impressive to see 3 pitchers eclipse the 200 innings mark.  If the 2011 rotation is clearly superior in any aspect it's there.  The two other things that jumped out at me was how good Randy Wolf was (compared to my memory) and how Zack Greinke was just okay(compared to my memory).

    If we rearrange the ERAs from best to worst (disregarding Estrada's) we're talking about a rotation of: 3.52, 3.54, 3.69, 3.87, and 4.45.  How close can the current rotation of Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta come to emulating that?  The short and honest answer is "I don't know."  However that would be a pretty lousy place to leave this article so let's look at a couple ways to answer the question.  Here is the average of the last three seasons for each pitcher in the current rotation:

Kyle Lohse	199.1 IP	3.19 ERA	3.75 FIP
Matt Garza	152.1 IP	3.62 ERA	3.54 FIP
Yovani Gallardo	197.1 IP	3.77 ERA	3.80 FIP
Marco Estrada	119.2 IP	3.84 ERA	3.61 FIP
Wily Peralta	106    IP	4.11 ERA	4.07 FIP

     Peralta's data only covers the last two seasons since that is as long as he has been in the majors.  He pitched 183.1 innings in his first full season and there's no reason to believe can't pitch a similar number of innings in 2014.  Estrada was only a starter for about 2 and a half seasons but he still hasn't been able to pitch a full season for health related reasons.  Looking at the ERA and FIP it seems as though the current rotation's past performance isn't that far off from the actual results of the 2011 rotation.  Take a look:

2011 Rotation ERA	2014 3 yr AVG ERA	2014 3 yr AVG FIP
3.52	3.19	3.75
3.54	3.62	3.54
3.69	3.77	3.80
3.87	3.84	3.61
4.45	4.11	4.07

    It's important to recognize, however, that the 2014 rotation cannot be expected to cover as many innings as the 2011 rotation.  I think Gallardo and Lohse can get close to 200 again.  Peralta might end up somewhere between 180-200.  The problem is with Garza and Estrada who have both had injury issues the last two years.  Fortunately, the Brewers do have a number of depth options include Tyler Thornburg, Jimmy Nelson, Tom Gorzelanny, and Will Smith among others.  You'll notice there is a large gap between Lohse's ERA and FIP.  I believe that FIP tends to underrate low velocity, pitch to contact guys.  Another example of that is Randy Wolf's 2011 season.  While he had a 3.69 ERA, his FIP was 4.29.  The point being, I'm comfortable saying Lohse is a guy who can be counted on to consistently outperform his FIP (he's not just getting lucky).  The other thing I have to mention is Gallardo.  It's unfortunate, but he's shown some negative trends over the last few years and that suggests his best days might be behind him.  

     After taking a look at what the Brewers rotation has done in the past, I thought it would be interesting to see what they might be expected to do.  I chose to take a look at what the ZiPS projection system thinks they'll do in 2014.  Garza's signing came after FanGraphs released the Brewers ZiPS projections, but Dan Symborski tweeted his individual projection.  I like ZiPS more than other projection systems, but I take all of them with a grain of salt.  They're never 100% accurate, which is an unfair expectation to begin with, so keep that in mind.   

	ZiPS IP	ZiPS ERA	ZiPS FIP
Kyle Lohse	165	3.86	4.15
Matt Garza	153	3.70	Unavailable
Yovani Gallardo	185	3.88	3.80
Marco Estrada	135	3.92	3.83
Wily Peralta	163	4.40	4.40

     It's striking how a big an issue ZiPS thinks innings are going to be for the Brewers.  However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lohse and Peralta exceed their projected innings totals by 20+ innings.  If that's the case then the innings shouldn't be too far off from 2011.  While it seems to think Gallardo will bounce back a bit, it also expects Lohse to falter a bit.  I'm not sure what goes into ZiPS calculations, but I have to wonder if it's underrating Lohse in a similar way that FIP underrates him.  It seems to think Garza, Estrada, and Peralta are going to be similar to their 2013 versions.  Aside from the innings issue, the ZiPS evaluation of the Brewers rotation seems to be average or slightly below.  We'll have to hope for better.  

     Comparing the current rotation to the 2011 rotation is mostly just a fun thought experiment.  It doesn't really matter which we'll look back on as better.  But if there's any point in all this, it's that if the Brewers current rotation can come close to reproducing their actual performance over the last 3 seasons, they have a solid chance at emulating the production from the 2011 rotation.  That is to say, they have a chance to be an above average, if not world beating, rotation.  That would be quite the upgrade from the last two seasons when it was a decidedly below average rotation.  Pair that with what I think is an elite offense and there is reason to be hopeful.  I'm not suggesting they can win 96 games again.  The Central has changed quite a lot and is arguably the toughest division in baseball.  Winning the division should be considered out of reach, but if the rotation performs up to their potential I like their Wild Card chances.

Brewers sign Matt Garza/updated roster and payroll

Today the Brewers signed Matt Garza to a four year contract for $50 million with $4 million in performance bonuses.  There is also a vesting option for a fifth year worth $13 million.  He will reportedly receive $12.5 million in each year of the 4 year contract.  The signing likely pushes Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen which is probably for the best.  I was interested to see how he'd fare given a full season in the rotation, but his skill set should play up in the pen.  With the added depth in both the rotation and bullpen it's possible the Brewers are finished adding to their roster.  I think it's likely they will still add one reliever though.  Perhaps they'll now be more willing to consider a high risk/high reward guy like Joel Hanrahan or Ryan Madson.

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)****	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*
SP: Matt Garza ($13.5 MM)*****	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*	RP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***	RP: Will Smith ($500 k)*
	RP: Rob Wooten ($500k)* RP: Donovan Hand (500 k)*

Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from Cots Contracts.

*League minimum is $500,000. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.
** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.
***Estrada's base salary is reportedly $3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.
****Francisco's contracts reportedly contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.
*****The incentive details are unknown at this time but he can make up to $1 million over his guaranteed $12.5

The Brewers gave Lyle Overbay a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training so it's possible he beats Francisco out for a platoon/bench spot.  Unless they trade Weeks, and even if that happens, I have a hard time seeing them rostering all 3 of Reynolds, Francisco, and Overbay.  That'll be something to watch.  Wooten and Hand will also have competition for their spots in the bullpen, but I think this is pretty close to what the opening day roster will actually look like.  I actually quite like this roster for the most part.  It's not good enough to take the division, but I think one of the Wild Card spots is a distinct possibility.  With zero roster spots open, as I have it, the total opening day payroll comes to approximately $95.075.  Keep in mind that is if all players' incentives vest.

What would the Garza signing mean for the Brewers bullpen?

I recently wrote about what Garza would do for the Brewers.  I’ve since realized I glossed over a very important aspect.  Garza’s signing would drastically change the dynamic of the Brewers' bullpen, for the better.   Much like signing Garza displaces starts from the worst candidate(s), it would also displace relief appearances from the worst candidate(s). 

Signing Garza would push Tyler Thornburg from the rotation to the pen where his skills are better suited.  He’s a shorter pitcher and because of that he can sometimes have problems getting a downward plane on his fastball.  When he pitches up in the zone he becomes very susceptible to home runs.  That isn’t as big a problem when hitters only get to see him once.  His fastball should also be helped by a mile or two increase in velocity.  With his above average curveball (and to a lesser extent his change-up) he could be a serious threat out of the pen.  That's what would replace the worst bullpen candidate.  That’s intriguing.

For most of the offseason it seemed likely the Brewers would roll out a bullpen consisting of Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, Tom Gorzelanny, Will Smith, Rob Wooten, Donovan Hand, and (in my opinion) an as yet unsigned free agent.  If Garza does sign, we would have to include Thornburg in the mix.  I still think the Brewers would look for one free agent reliever.  That would leave one spot for a number of candidates (Wooten, Hand, Figaro, Duke, Wang, Olmsted, Goforth) to be used in mop-up.  I think Wooten has a leg up on the competition, but he is by no means a lock.  Goforth is the best of the lot but the Brewers might choose to give him a half season or so experience at Triple-A, a level he's never pitched at before.  However if he's pitching mostly in low leverage situations to begin the season it could help him make the transition from AA to MLB.  It's a lot easier for relievers to make that jump than starters so it isn't unreasonable to say he has a shot.  A bullpen with Henderson, Kintzler, Thornburg, Gorzelanny, Smith, and Wooten/Goforth has the potential to be dominant and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people.  

What would signing Matt Garza mean for the Brewers?

Early Thursday afternoon reports had the Brewers signing Matt Garza to a 4 year $52 million dollar contract.  Those reports proved to be premature as later that night it was clarified that talks were still ongoing.  No new information has surfaced as of yet so I’ve had lots of time to think about what exactly Garza would mean for the Brewers.  It’s not as simple as valuing the starts he would make.  We also have to consider the starts other pitchers wouldn’t have.  Fortunately both of those aspects appear to be good things.

Garza isn’t an ace, not many  pitchers are, but he is an above average starter.  He has a career 3.84 ERA, 3.98 FIP.  The last two seasons he struggled with injures, but in each of the four years prior he made 30+ starts.  In those four years he threw 184, 203, 204, and 198 innings respectively.  This suggests that if he's healthy, he's capable of throwing close to 200 innings.  He has a 20% strikeout rate for his career and a 7.9% walk rate.  Those rates also closely resemble his last 3 seasons so there is no sign of diminishing ability.  He does have issues with home runs.  His slider is a plus pitch and he has an above average fastball.  His curveball is somewhat lacking though and he has a show-me change-up.  I would place his talent level somewhere above Gallardo’s and below Lohse’s.  A lot of people have balked at the length of the contract citing the last two years in which he dealt with injuries.  I understand the risk here, but the Brewers do have a top notch medical staff.  If they’ve given the green light either they feel his injuries are in the past or are manageable.  Whatever the issues have been, they haven’t visibly diminished his ability.  His velocity has been consistent his entire career and his plus pitches continue to have positive run values (his FB had a negative value last year but that's because of a terrible second half in Texas and likely more noise than anything real).  Even if he does miss time, the innings he does provide should be quality.  

By giving a rotation spot to Garza, the Brewers will be displacing a number of innings they would have given to others.  Outside the top four of Lohse, Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta the Brewers gave starts to 8 other pitchers.  The best of those starts came from Tyler Thornburg.  He made 7 starts and actually performed quite well.  To be exact, in those 7 starts he put up a 1.47 ERA(1.1 fWAR).  Despite that performance, he'll certainly be pushed to the bullpen if Garza signs.  Thornburg fans need not despair though.  No rotation stays healthy all season long so he's still going to start some games.  In that case, it’s not really his starts that are being displaced.  In 2013 the Brewers spread ~131 innings over 28 starts between Hiram Burgos, Alfredo Figaro, Donovan Hand, Mike Fiers, and Johnny Hellweg.  They combined for a whopping -2.3 fWAR.  These are the starts that Garza will be displacing.  For contrast, Garza pitched ~155 innings accumulating a 2.2 fWAR. In a fuzzy math sort of way, adding Garza is almost like adding 4.5 fWAR.  

That certainly doesn’t put the Brewers in contention for the NL Central.  However, it may just put them in the conversation for one of the Wild Card spots.  They’ll still need Gallardo to reverse his trends or at least see actual results closer to his FIP.  In addition, they’ll need to see improvement from Peralta.  If that happens and Estrada can stay healthy for a full season, it’s entirely possible the Brewers could have five 3-win starting pitchers.  That’s not elite, but that’s solidly above average and with the potential the offense has it might be enough.  Yes, that’s quite a few “ifs.”  Still, it’s a few less ifs than a week ago.  Or at least it will be if the Brewers actually sign Garza.  If…ah hell let’s be optimistic, WHEN that happens, I’m going to allow myself to be excited and a little (cautiously) optimistic about 2014.

Addendum:

Garza also helps the Brewers in a rebuild.  At the very least he can't hurt a rebuild because he doesn't cost a draft pick.  If they're out of it by the trade deadline having Garza makes Gallardo, or possibly Lohse, more expendable.  Garza himself could even be made available in a trade at some point in the future.

Brewers deferred payments

I’ve been coming out with period payroll projections this winter and Aramis Ramirez’s 2014 is a common point of confusion, and sometimes contention, for people.  I don’t blame anyone as contracts can often be convoluted and information difficult to find.  His total salary is technically $16 million, but $6 million of that is deferred to a later date.  This got me wondering about the other players with deferred salary and I thought I’d share what I found.

As discussed above, Ramirez’s 2014 salary stipulates $6 million is deferred.  I use Cot’sContracts for most of my salary information.  Sometimes I'll check B-Ref, but that's only for confirmation if something is called into question.  Neither of these sites listed when or in what quantities the deferred payments were to be made.  It was only by chance that I stumbled upon this article and learned $3M will be paid in 2017 and the other $3 million in 2018.

Ryan Braun’s contract stipulates “$18 million in salary (4 million each in 2016-18 and $3 million each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031.”  In other words, the Brewers are to pay Braun $1.8 million over the course of ten years.  Those payments begin the year after Braun’s final option year.  He's also owed $10 million  from a signing bonus.  That's to be paid in equal installments over 4 years, the last two of which are 2014 and 2015.  That's $2.5 million each year.

Kyle Lohse is the other player whose contract includes deferred salary.  Seven million dollars of his 2013 salary is deferred, to be paid over the years of 2016-2018.  If it’s like Ramirez and Braun’s deferred payments, it’ll be in equal installments.  That’s $2,333,333 for 3 years.

Ramirez’s deferred payments will overlap with the last 2 years of Lohse’s deferred payments.  Assuming I’m correct about the structure of Lohse’s payments, the Brewers will then owe $5.33 million in 2017 and 2018.  It’s possible that could end up being a significant or prohibitive figure.  I don’t think it actually will be, but ownership could easily point to that as a public rationalization not to spend.  Braun’s deferred payments (2022-2031) should not have any real impact on future payroll.

-All salary information in this article comes from Cot's Contract's Brewers page.

Updated roster projection included Reynolds; Estrada & Francisco agree to contracts

This weeks the Brewers signed Mark Reynolds to a minor league contract that is worth as much $2.5 million after incentives.  Despite it being a minor league deal I'm going to include him here because I'm quite certain he will be on the opening day roster.  The Brewers were also able to avoid arbitration with Marco Estrada and Juan Francisco.  In my opinion that leaves one roster spot open in the bullpen.  It's possible they decide to bring in two free agent relievers, but I think it's unlikely.  Here is my roster prediction:

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***	RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)*
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*	RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)*
	RP: Will Smith ($500k)* RP: Free Agent

Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from Cots Contracts.

*League minimum is $500k. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.
** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.
***Estrada's base salary is reportedly $3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.
****Francisco's contracts reportedly contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.

As I have it here, the total payroll with 1 open roster spot comes to approximately $81.575 million dollars.

Brewers sign Mark Reynolds

                Today the Brewers signed 1B/3B Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.  If he makes the team he’ll earn $2 million with a chance at another $500,000 from incentives.  Regardless of what you think of him, that’s pretty darn cheap.  My impression is they signed him to a minor league deal simply as a way to keep a spot open on the 40-man roster.  I’m pretty confident that he’ll be on the opening day roster.  They’re still looking for a reliever and probably want to wait as long as possible before DFA’ing someone off the roster.  If they end up trading Rickie Weeks they might not have to do that at all.

                Reynolds is a prime example of a three true outcome player.  He’s either going to strikeout, hit a home run, or draw a walk.  A lot of people are going to unjustly claim he’s awful because of his strikeouts.  Don’t be one of them.  He could very well be awful.  He does have contact issues.  But strikeouts don’t necessarily mean a player is worthless.  When he hits, it’s for a ton of power.  He also has some on-base skills.  Last year wasn’t good, but he owns a career .329 OBP.  It’s not great, but you can play with that, especially when you’re hitting 25 home runs.  He doesn’t have huge splits, but he does handle LHP better than RHP.  That would fit in a platoon with Juan Francisco if the Brewers want to go in that direction.  Reynolds’ defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s better at first base than third base.  Playing bad defense, however, is worlds away from not being able to play there at all.  He’ll provide additional depth in case Aramis Ramirez gets hurt again.  He could also help make Ramirez more expendable at the deadline should the Brewers look to move him. 

                I like this signing.  Forget about the minor league aspect.  It’s a formality.  He’s going to be the starting first baseman.  I might be more pumped about a platoon with Francisco, but I don’t think that’s their plan.  The option is there though.  They’re only paying Reynolds to be a little less than a 0.5 win player which is not a high bar.  I really don’t see any way this could be bad for the Brewers.  Even if he’s awful, which I think is unlikely, they could cut him and be out very little money.  At this point in the winter I’m not sure they could have done too much better.

What's worse than Clark?

Recently the Chicago Cubs, to the abject horror of anyone who was taught about stranger danger, unveiled their new mascot Clark the cub, or Clark Cub, Cub Clark.  I don't really know which it is.  I do know it's hilariously awful.  Take a look at this terrifying scene:

Photo courtesy of CBS

It's so bad that when the Cubs are killing it in the NL Central a few years from now I'll still take solace in the fact that at least Clark isn't the Brewers' mascot.  And that got me thinking.  Is there anything worse than Clark?  So I now introduce you to The Book of Gorman's new recurring series: "What's worse than Clark?"  Here we'll compare and contrast Clark with some other awful thing and let you decide what's worse than Clark.

Clark is up against some stiff competition in our inaugural installment: The Marlins Home Run Sculpture.

Photo courtesy of BusinessInsider.com

The Marlins are a wasteland of a baseball team.  Their owner is the worst in the major leagues.  He's already, at least partially, to blame for running the Expos into the ground.  Even still, the worst thing about them may very well be the home run sculpture.  It's supposed to be a tribute to the Cuban culture in Miami.  I don't know how the Cuban community feels about it, but I think it's an eyesore.  It also cost $2.5 million which was more than the Marlins individually paid 22 players on their 25-man roster.  When a Brewers player hits a home run they shoot off the most depressing looking fireworks and Bernie goes down the slide.  It's a little silly, but it's unobtrusive.  If I want to ignore it, I can.  When a Marlin hits a home run this happens:

So there you have it.  The choice is now in your hands.  Let me know, either in the comments or on Twitter if you think the Marlins home run sculpture is worse than this:

Photo courtesy of Independent.co.uk

Where is the money going?

In 2012 the Brewers pushed their opening day payroll over the $100 million mark for the first time ever.  By the end of the season, after trades, they ended up committing a total of approximately $98 million.  It has been claimed that they lost several million dollars that season.  Whether that means they actually operated in the red or just didn’t make as much money as expected is up for debate.  Regardless, the Brewers scaled back the payroll in 2013 to a little under $89 million in order to make up for some of the losses.  I happen to think it was a prudent move.  I agreed with it despite the fact that they were to receive an additional $9 million (approximately) from their unfortunately awful local TV contract.  We shouldn’t expect them to use all that money for roster construction, but theoretically some could go towards it.  From all this, one can infer several things:

1. Prior to the increased local TV revenue, $98 million was several million over what the Brewers could spend and just break even.

2. Prior to the increased local TV revenue the Brewers could break even by operating somewhere around $92-94 million (several million below the $98 million spent in 2012). 

3. After increased local TV revenue is factored in the Brewers could break-even by operating somewhere over $92-94 million (or in other words, some millions more than several million below the $98 million spent in 2012).

I’ll also note that each club will begin receiving an additional $26 million dollars in 2014 from National TV contracts.  I’ll have more to say on this later.

Judging by the moves the Brewers have not made (e.g. not trading players to enter a rebuild phase) one has to assume the plan is to compete in 2014.  It’s possible that they could explore selling players at the trade deadline.  That is, however, less of a plan than a lack thereof.  For the sake of argument, I’m going to assume the plan is to compete.  The question then becomes what areas are in need of improvement?  One could argue that the rotation is weak and the bullpen needs bolstering.  I would say, even though they may not be exceptional pitchers, the 5 rotation spots can be filled in house and the bullpen is less important.   It is my assertion that the only glaring need is first base. 

Let’s go back to the money side of things for a moment.  Above I have inferred that $92-94 million was approximately the point at which the Brewers could operate without losing money.  This is before factoring increased revenue ($35 million) from local and national TV contracts.  It’s impractical to ask the Brewers to commit that full sum to the payroll, but I think it’s fair to say that they could commit as much as $10 million of it if not more (The rest of the TV money would go to things like the first year player draft, international signings, and improving facilities and various programs throughout the franchise).  Let's hedge our bets and say that before factoring the national TV revenue, the Brewers payroll limit was $92 million.  After factoring the new national TV money the Brewers current payroll limit is, very conservatively, $102 million dollars.  I have previously estimated the Brewers payroll to be $80.2 million with two open roster spots for a first baseman and a reliever.  That means the Brewers could theoretically spend as much as almost $22 million for those last two spots.

I’m not saying the Brewers should spend all that money for the sake of spending it.  I’m not saying they should be spending $100 million annually.  I’m certainly not saying they can compete with other clubs for elite free agents nor do I think they should try.  I understand the desire to stay away from long term deals and I agree with that in general.  I understand why they didn’t want to give James Loney something like 3 years and $27 million.  That is all the quarter I'll give them, though, because I don’t understand why they were unwilling to offer Corey Hart the deal Seattle did.  And I am absolutely saying I reject the notion that they could not afford it.  Anyone that tells you that is either lying or misinformed.  They have more than enough money.  In point of fact they have over $8 million more than enough.  I understand the risk associated with his knees but that risk is mitigated by limiting the deal to one year and making it incentive based.  Hart was a better option than anything now left to the Brewers.  He was a step closer towards legitimate contention, and also offered the ability to trade him mid-season, but that’s another conversation.  The point is they have money to spend but were unwilling to spend it on the one thing they need most in a year in which they claim their goal is to contend.  By doing they so arguably left themselves worse off.

I have many questions for the Brewers.  But for right now, the one foremost on my mind is this: If they are unwilling to spend the money they have on the one area they need most, where exactly is that money going?