I know
a lot of people really like Norichicka Aoki and they want to keep him
around. I can understand that. He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter. He has hit for a good average and gotten
on-base at a well above average rate since coming to the majors in 2012. He’ll only make about $2 million in 2014. I have to imagine that anyone against trading
him is under the impression the Brewers have a chance to make the postseason,
because why else keep him? It’s not like
they’re lacking for outfielders. I think
the chances are slim that they compete, but if they do they might get better
production by starting Khris Davis instead.
I like Aoki too, but quite frankly the time to cut ties with him is
quickly approaching if it hasn’t already arrived.
In 2012
Aoki hit 288/355/433, with 30 SB (8 CS), and 10 HR which was good for a 114
wRC+. In 2013 he hit 286/356/370, with
20 SB (12 CS), and 8 HR which was good for a 104 wRC+. You’ll notice his slugging numbers were way
down. That’s because he hit 2 fewer home
runs, 1 fewer triples, and 17 fewer doubles.
His base running skills also took a massive hit. He stole 10 fewer bases while getting caught
4 more times. His extra bases taken
percentage (XBT%) dropped from 40% to 28%. The point is not to suggest that he is useless because he can't hit for power numbers or run well. It's to illustrate his decline. He still hit for a good average and got on-base at an above average
clip. That is a valuable skill even if it’s mitigated by lowered slugging
numbers. I’m just not sure it puts him
ahead of the other in-house option.
If you
want the Brewers to compete then you should want them to start Khris Davis. He has the potential to be a far greater
offensive threat than Aoki. In 56 games
he hit 279/353/579 with 11 home runs.
That’s good for a 160 wRC+. While
there’s some doubt that he can repeat that over an entire season, that beats
Aoki’s best mark by 46 points. Davis had good numbers at ever level in the minors so that at least suggests he can be a capable major leaguer. Even if
Davis loses some ground it shouldn’t be too difficult to surpass Aoki’s 104
wRC+ in 2013 which was barely above average (100 is average). He might not be suited for leadoff, but that
won’t matter. They can find someone else
to fill that spot and use Davis’ slugging ability further down the line-up.
Aoki’s defense in right is adequate
but I’d be worried about putting him in center.
That limits his value as a back-up. If they wanted to use him off the bench, his
salary is so low that he could serve in a back-up role. Even then, if the argument is to save money
Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer would each make $1.5 million less. They each provide certain advantages (and
disadvantages) over Aoki too. Gindl
provides more pop but cannot play center.
Schafer is a much better defender but his bat is weak. Aoki is the most well rounded of the three so
you could still argue that he’s the best choice. I think he’d serve the Brewers better in a
trade.
By now I’m sure everyone has heard
about the proposed Aoki for Ike Davis trade.
This is an example of what I wouldn’t trade him for. I think, right now, the Brewers should only
trade Aoki for a prospect. Unfortunately,
I’m not sure what other teams have a need for him and it’s likely he’s only a 4th
outfielder or platoon player on most other teams. If they’re unable to get a decent value for
him, then I’d hang onto him and revisit the scenario at the trade
deadline. Aoki won’t, and shouldn’t, be
extended. At mid-season it will be about
getting anything for a player on his way out.
Therefore, at that time, I will lower my expectations regarding the
return. I’ll even take a bullpen
prospect. The only way I don’t trade him
is if the Brewers are competing, though if you’ve been keeping up with my
articles you’ll know I doubt the possibility.
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