Deconstructing the Payroll

        With the K-Rod signing the Brewers' roster is essentially complete.  I thought it would be interesting to see how the money is divided among the team's different roles.  There will be some competition for the final two bullpen spots, but it shouldn't impact the payroll as all the in-house options will make approximately league minimum.  It's also possible that the Brewers choose to go with Lyle Overbay instead of Juan Francisco.  I'd be surprised (and a little disappointed) if that happened, so for now I'm going to ignore that possibility.  I ran into a bit of an obstacle at first base and second base because the Brewers are going to, or at least they should, be using platoons at both positions.  I decided to divide the salaries of Gennett, Weeks, Francisco, and Reynolds based on their roles.  The strong sided platoon players would have two-thirds of their salaries go towards the starting position portion of the payroll and one-third toward the bench.  The opposite would be true for the weak-sided platoon players where one-third of their salaries goes towards the starting position portion of the payroll and two-thirds goes towards the bench.

Here is the payroll breakdown:

Starting Position Players: $38,233,333
Bench Players:                $11,116,667
Starting Rotation:             $37,925,000
Bullpen:                           $9,100,000

Starting Roles:                 $76,158,333
Reserve Roles:                 $20,216,667

Position Players:             $49,350,000
Pitchers:                         $47,025,000

Total:                              $96,375,000

Here is the breakdown of the payroll by percentage:

Starting Position Players: 40%
Bench Players:                11.5%
Starting Rotation:             39.5%
Bullpen:                           9%

Starting Roles:                 79%
Reserve Roles:                 21%

Position Players:              51%
Pitchers:                          49%


        Interestingly, the Brewers have pretty evenly distributed their payroll between pitchers and position players.  It's not surprising to see the majority of the Brewers' payroll going to starting players.  I might be surprised by seeing so much money spent on the bench, but I know that's only because the majority of Weeks' salary goes towards it.  The thing that most stands out to me is the percent being spent on the bullpen.  It seems low and to me that's a good thing.  As we should all know by now, relievers are the most fungible asset on any given team.  Bullpens are volatile and usually have a relatively high turnover rate so it's comforting to see so little of the Brewers' money going towards it.  This is also an area where I see the Brewers getting a decent amount of surplus value.  Of the money the Brewers are spending on pitching, 19% of it is going to the bullpen.  Last year the Brewers gave 36% of their total innings pitched to the bullpen.  Back in 2011 when they only used 6 different starting pitchers, they still gave 31% of their innings pitched to the bullpen.
        I wanted to deconstruct the payroll like this simply because I was curious about it.  I'm not sure there is a right or wrong way to divide a team's payroll.  It's a relative situation because a team could have a bunch of position players in starting roles that are making the league minimum.  If that's the case, it would make sense that they'd be spending more on pitchers.  To some extent this is what is going on with the Brewers.  Aramis Ramiez, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gomez are the only starting position players making over $2 million dollars.  Conversely, they have 3 starting pitchers making over $10 million.  Next year, three of the highest paid (Ramirez, Weeks, Gallardo) players could be cut loose.  Really I only see Weeks departing, but it'll be interesting to see how the payroll is doled out next year.

Brewers sign K-Rod; Updated roster and payroll projections

Today the Brewers announced they signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 1 year contract worth $3.25 million.  The deal includes another $550,000 possible through incentives which would raise the total value to just under $4 million.  Ignoring my personal and moral   reservations, from a purely baseball perspective I think this is a fine deal.  K-Rod was pretty awful in 2012 but that was due to a severe drop in his swinging strike rate from a career average around 12% to 7.9%.  That resulted in a large increase in contact rate, from low to mid-70% the previous three years to 80.9%.  Those numbers regressed towards norms in 2013.  His swinging strike rate was 10.2% and his contact rate was 76.6%.  To me this seems to suggest that while he's no longer an elite reliever, he isn't completely worthless.  I think he's losing his edge a bit, and shouldn't be used in high leverage situations anymore, but outside of those he can probably be a perfectly capable middle reliever.  I've seen plenty of people suggest that nearly $4 million is a big overpay, but I would disagree with that.  In this market of increased salaries, the AAV seems to be in line with what middle relievers are getting.  Then when one takes into account the deal is for only 1 year I think it actually starts to look pretty good.  I suspect this is the last significant transaction of the offseason for the Brewers, so it's not like the money was going to be needed elsewhere.  Oh yeah, in a corresponding move they have designated Donovan Hand for assignment to make room for K-Rod on the 40-man roster.

Here's is my updated roster and payroll projection:

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)*******	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)****	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*
SP: Matt Garza ($11.5 MM)*****	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*	RP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***	RP: Will Smith ($500 k)*
	RP: Francisco Rodriguez ($3.8 MM)****** RP: Rob Wooten (500 k)*

Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from Cots Contracts.

*League minimum is $500,000. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.

** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.

***Estrada's base salary is reportedly $3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.

****J. Francisco's contracts reportedly contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.

*****Garza's deal is for $12.5MM ea. year but $2 MM is deferred. Can make extra $1M w/incentives.

******K-Rod's base salary is $3.25 million with another $550,000 possible through incentives.

*******Ramirez's total salary for 2014 is actually $16 million, but $6 MM of it is deferred. 

The total payroll comes to $96.375 million with no open roster spots.  That includes all incentives, which equal $2.15 million, so the actual total could be less.

Garza's contract details; Updated payroll projection; Updated deferred installments

Today the specific details of Matt Garza's contract came out.  Previously I had believed Garza would receive $12.5 million because of this tweet from Jon Heyman.  While technically true (or in other words, wrong) it's been revealed that $2 million will be deferred from each of the 4 guaranteed years.  Cot's Contracts lists that these payments ($2 million each) are to be made from 2018-2021.  There are also performances bonuses at $500,000 for starting 30 games and another $500,000 for reaching 190 innings.  The details regarding the vesting year have also been revealed and it's a bit convoluted.  His option will vest 1. He starts 110 games in over the course of the four guaranteed contract years (2014-2017), 2. He isn't on the disabled list at the end of 2017, and 3. He pitches at least 115 innings in 2017.  If the option does not vest, it becomes a team option.  The Brewers can exercise that option for $5 million unless Garza spent 130 days on the DL in any 183 day period (full season) in which case the team option is for $1 million!  With the complete details revealed I like this deal even more.  The one caveat here is that there must have been something in Garza's physical exam that suggested a contract of this type was warranted.  In other words, the Brewers believe an injury is a real risk.  I think it's a risk worth taking.

Now that we know Garza's contract includes deferred money I wanted to update both the payroll projection.

Updated Payroll: $93.075 million

I also wanted to include Garza's money in the analysis of Brewers' deferred installments over the years.  Lohse's exact deferred payment installments were also brought to my attention by a reader so I included those.

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022-31
Braun							$1.8 M
Ramirez		$3.0 M	$3.0 M
Lohse	$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$3.0 M
Garza			$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0 M
Total	$2.0 M	$5.0 M	$8.0 M	$2.0 M	$2.0M	$2.0 M	$1.8 M

For most of those years the deferred payments shouldn't matter too much.  However 2017 and especially 2018 could be problematic.  That is around the time when some of the Brewers' better prospects are expected to arrive at the majors, so perhaps that will help mitigate this issue.  Still, they're running out of room to defer money in the near future.

How does the Brewers' 2014 rotation stack up to their best in recent memory?

     It's been a long time since I've endorsed a free agent signing by the Brewers, but I endorse the Garza signing.  It's made the rotation quite a bit deeper than it has been in a while and given me reason to be excited for the season.  This excitement and optimism has me wondering just how good things might be and naturally I began to think how this rotation compares to the best rotation the Brewers have had this century.  I am of course talking about the 2011 rotation.
     That rotation consisted of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson.  Marco Estrada also filled in on occasion.  It's easy to look at the names in that rotation and dismiss the 2014 version as being anything but close.  Zack Greinke is worlds better than the best pitcher on the current roster.  But it's important to realize that we're not comparing potential.  We know what the 2011 rotation did.  So what we're really talking about is comparing the potential of the 2014 rotation with the actual performance of the 2011 rotation.
     The following are the results of that season:

Zack Greinke	171.2 IP	3.87 ERA
Yovani Gallardo	207.1 IP	3.52 ERA
Shaun Marcum	200.2 IP	3.54 ERA
Randy Wolf	212.1 IP	3.69 ERA
Chris Narveson	158.2 IP	4.45 ERA
Marco Estrada	41.1   IP	3.70 ERA

That's a very good rotation, but maybe the most impressive thing about it is the fact that it only used 6 different pitchers.  I have a hard time seeing that happen again, ever.  It's also impressive to see 3 pitchers eclipse the 200 innings mark.  If the 2011 rotation is clearly superior in any aspect it's there.  The two other things that jumped out at me was how good Randy Wolf was (compared to my memory) and how Zack Greinke was just okay(compared to my memory).

    If we rearrange the ERAs from best to worst (disregarding Estrada's) we're talking about a rotation of: 3.52, 3.54, 3.69, 3.87, and 4.45.  How close can the current rotation of Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta come to emulating that?  The short and honest answer is "I don't know."  However that would be a pretty lousy place to leave this article so let's look at a couple ways to answer the question.  Here is the average of the last three seasons for each pitcher in the current rotation:

Kyle Lohse	199.1 IP	3.19 ERA	3.75 FIP
Matt Garza	152.1 IP	3.62 ERA	3.54 FIP
Yovani Gallardo	197.1 IP	3.77 ERA	3.80 FIP
Marco Estrada	119.2 IP	3.84 ERA	3.61 FIP
Wily Peralta	106    IP	4.11 ERA	4.07 FIP

     Peralta's data only covers the last two seasons since that is as long as he has been in the majors.  He pitched 183.1 innings in his first full season and there's no reason to believe can't pitch a similar number of innings in 2014.  Estrada was only a starter for about 2 and a half seasons but he still hasn't been able to pitch a full season for health related reasons.  Looking at the ERA and FIP it seems as though the current rotation's past performance isn't that far off from the actual results of the 2011 rotation.  Take a look:

2011 Rotation ERA	2014 3 yr AVG ERA	2014 3 yr AVG FIP
3.52	3.19	3.75
3.54	3.62	3.54
3.69	3.77	3.80
3.87	3.84	3.61
4.45	4.11	4.07

    It's important to recognize, however, that the 2014 rotation cannot be expected to cover as many innings as the 2011 rotation.  I think Gallardo and Lohse can get close to 200 again.  Peralta might end up somewhere between 180-200.  The problem is with Garza and Estrada who have both had injury issues the last two years.  Fortunately, the Brewers do have a number of depth options include Tyler Thornburg, Jimmy Nelson, Tom Gorzelanny, and Will Smith among others.  You'll notice there is a large gap between Lohse's ERA and FIP.  I believe that FIP tends to underrate low velocity, pitch to contact guys.  Another example of that is Randy Wolf's 2011 season.  While he had a 3.69 ERA, his FIP was 4.29.  The point being, I'm comfortable saying Lohse is a guy who can be counted on to consistently outperform his FIP (he's not just getting lucky).  The other thing I have to mention is Gallardo.  It's unfortunate, but he's shown some negative trends over the last few years and that suggests his best days might be behind him.  

     After taking a look at what the Brewers rotation has done in the past, I thought it would be interesting to see what they might be expected to do.  I chose to take a look at what the ZiPS projection system thinks they'll do in 2014.  Garza's signing came after FanGraphs released the Brewers ZiPS projections, but Dan Symborski tweeted his individual projection.  I like ZiPS more than other projection systems, but I take all of them with a grain of salt.  They're never 100% accurate, which is an unfair expectation to begin with, so keep that in mind.   

	ZiPS IP	ZiPS ERA	ZiPS FIP
Kyle Lohse	165	3.86	4.15
Matt Garza	153	3.70	Unavailable
Yovani Gallardo	185	3.88	3.80
Marco Estrada	135	3.92	3.83
Wily Peralta	163	4.40	4.40

     It's striking how a big an issue ZiPS thinks innings are going to be for the Brewers.  However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lohse and Peralta exceed their projected innings totals by 20+ innings.  If that's the case then the innings shouldn't be too far off from 2011.  While it seems to think Gallardo will bounce back a bit, it also expects Lohse to falter a bit.  I'm not sure what goes into ZiPS calculations, but I have to wonder if it's underrating Lohse in a similar way that FIP underrates him.  It seems to think Garza, Estrada, and Peralta are going to be similar to their 2013 versions.  Aside from the innings issue, the ZiPS evaluation of the Brewers rotation seems to be average or slightly below.  We'll have to hope for better.  

     Comparing the current rotation to the 2011 rotation is mostly just a fun thought experiment.  It doesn't really matter which we'll look back on as better.  But if there's any point in all this, it's that if the Brewers current rotation can come close to reproducing their actual performance over the last 3 seasons, they have a solid chance at emulating the production from the 2011 rotation.  That is to say, they have a chance to be an above average, if not world beating, rotation.  That would be quite the upgrade from the last two seasons when it was a decidedly below average rotation.  Pair that with what I think is an elite offense and there is reason to be hopeful.  I'm not suggesting they can win 96 games again.  The Central has changed quite a lot and is arguably the toughest division in baseball.  Winning the division should be considered out of reach, but if the rotation performs up to their potential I like their Wild Card chances.

Brewers sign Matt Garza/updated roster and payroll

Today the Brewers signed Matt Garza to a four year contract for $50 million with $4 million in performance bonuses.  There is also a vesting option for a fifth year worth $13 million.  He will reportedly receive $12.5 million in each year of the 4 year contract.  The signing likely pushes Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen which is probably for the best.  I was interested to see how he'd fare given a full season in the rotation, but his skill set should play up in the pen.  With the added depth in both the rotation and bullpen it's possible the Brewers are finished adding to their roster.  I think it's likely they will still add one reliever though.  Perhaps they'll now be more willing to consider a high risk/high reward guy like Joel Hanrahan or Ryan Madson.

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*
1B: Mark Reynolds ($2.5 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco ($1.35 MM)****
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)****	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*
SP: Matt Garza ($13.5 MM)*****	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*	RP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.425 MM)***	RP: Will Smith ($500 k)*
	RP: Rob Wooten ($500k)* RP: Donovan Hand (500 k)*

Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from Cots Contracts.

*League minimum is $500,000. Actual salaries could be marginally higher.
** Reynolds' contract is for a $2 million guaranteed base with another $500,000 possible with incentives.
***Estrada's base salary is reportedly $3.325 and includes $100,000 in incentives.
****Francisco's contracts reportedly contains performance bonuses that are as yet unkown.
*****The incentive details are unknown at this time but he can make up to $1 million over his guaranteed $12.5

The Brewers gave Lyle Overbay a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training so it's possible he beats Francisco out for a platoon/bench spot.  Unless they trade Weeks, and even if that happens, I have a hard time seeing them rostering all 3 of Reynolds, Francisco, and Overbay.  That'll be something to watch.  Wooten and Hand will also have competition for their spots in the bullpen, but I think this is pretty close to what the opening day roster will actually look like.  I actually quite like this roster for the most part.  It's not good enough to take the division, but I think one of the Wild Card spots is a distinct possibility.  With zero roster spots open, as I have it, the total opening day payroll comes to approximately $95.075.  Keep in mind that is if all players' incentives vest.

What would the Garza signing mean for the Brewers bullpen?

I recently wrote about what Garza would do for the Brewers.  I’ve since realized I glossed over a very important aspect.  Garza’s signing would drastically change the dynamic of the Brewers' bullpen, for the better.   Much like signing Garza displaces starts from the worst candidate(s), it would also displace relief appearances from the worst candidate(s). 

Signing Garza would push Tyler Thornburg from the rotation to the pen where his skills are better suited.  He’s a shorter pitcher and because of that he can sometimes have problems getting a downward plane on his fastball.  When he pitches up in the zone he becomes very susceptible to home runs.  That isn’t as big a problem when hitters only get to see him once.  His fastball should also be helped by a mile or two increase in velocity.  With his above average curveball (and to a lesser extent his change-up) he could be a serious threat out of the pen.  That's what would replace the worst bullpen candidate.  That’s intriguing.

For most of the offseason it seemed likely the Brewers would roll out a bullpen consisting of Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, Tom Gorzelanny, Will Smith, Rob Wooten, Donovan Hand, and (in my opinion) an as yet unsigned free agent.  If Garza does sign, we would have to include Thornburg in the mix.  I still think the Brewers would look for one free agent reliever.  That would leave one spot for a number of candidates (Wooten, Hand, Figaro, Duke, Wang, Olmsted, Goforth) to be used in mop-up.  I think Wooten has a leg up on the competition, but he is by no means a lock.  Goforth is the best of the lot but the Brewers might choose to give him a half season or so experience at Triple-A, a level he's never pitched at before.  However if he's pitching mostly in low leverage situations to begin the season it could help him make the transition from AA to MLB.  It's a lot easier for relievers to make that jump than starters so it isn't unreasonable to say he has a shot.  A bullpen with Henderson, Kintzler, Thornburg, Gorzelanny, Smith, and Wooten/Goforth has the potential to be dominant and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people.  

What would signing Matt Garza mean for the Brewers?

Early Thursday afternoon reports had the Brewers signing Matt Garza to a 4 year $52 million dollar contract.  Those reports proved to be premature as later that night it was clarified that talks were still ongoing.  No new information has surfaced as of yet so I’ve had lots of time to think about what exactly Garza would mean for the Brewers.  It’s not as simple as valuing the starts he would make.  We also have to consider the starts other pitchers wouldn’t have.  Fortunately both of those aspects appear to be good things.

Garza isn’t an ace, not many  pitchers are, but he is an above average starter.  He has a career 3.84 ERA, 3.98 FIP.  The last two seasons he struggled with injures, but in each of the four years prior he made 30+ starts.  In those four years he threw 184, 203, 204, and 198 innings respectively.  This suggests that if he's healthy, he's capable of throwing close to 200 innings.  He has a 20% strikeout rate for his career and a 7.9% walk rate.  Those rates also closely resemble his last 3 seasons so there is no sign of diminishing ability.  He does have issues with home runs.  His slider is a plus pitch and he has an above average fastball.  His curveball is somewhat lacking though and he has a show-me change-up.  I would place his talent level somewhere above Gallardo’s and below Lohse’s.  A lot of people have balked at the length of the contract citing the last two years in which he dealt with injuries.  I understand the risk here, but the Brewers do have a top notch medical staff.  If they’ve given the green light either they feel his injuries are in the past or are manageable.  Whatever the issues have been, they haven’t visibly diminished his ability.  His velocity has been consistent his entire career and his plus pitches continue to have positive run values (his FB had a negative value last year but that's because of a terrible second half in Texas and likely more noise than anything real).  Even if he does miss time, the innings he does provide should be quality.  

By giving a rotation spot to Garza, the Brewers will be displacing a number of innings they would have given to others.  Outside the top four of Lohse, Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta the Brewers gave starts to 8 other pitchers.  The best of those starts came from Tyler Thornburg.  He made 7 starts and actually performed quite well.  To be exact, in those 7 starts he put up a 1.47 ERA(1.1 fWAR).  Despite that performance, he'll certainly be pushed to the bullpen if Garza signs.  Thornburg fans need not despair though.  No rotation stays healthy all season long so he's still going to start some games.  In that case, it’s not really his starts that are being displaced.  In 2013 the Brewers spread ~131 innings over 28 starts between Hiram Burgos, Alfredo Figaro, Donovan Hand, Mike Fiers, and Johnny Hellweg.  They combined for a whopping -2.3 fWAR.  These are the starts that Garza will be displacing.  For contrast, Garza pitched ~155 innings accumulating a 2.2 fWAR. In a fuzzy math sort of way, adding Garza is almost like adding 4.5 fWAR.  

That certainly doesn’t put the Brewers in contention for the NL Central.  However, it may just put them in the conversation for one of the Wild Card spots.  They’ll still need Gallardo to reverse his trends or at least see actual results closer to his FIP.  In addition, they’ll need to see improvement from Peralta.  If that happens and Estrada can stay healthy for a full season, it’s entirely possible the Brewers could have five 3-win starting pitchers.  That’s not elite, but that’s solidly above average and with the potential the offense has it might be enough.  Yes, that’s quite a few “ifs.”  Still, it’s a few less ifs than a week ago.  Or at least it will be if the Brewers actually sign Garza.  If…ah hell let’s be optimistic, WHEN that happens, I’m going to allow myself to be excited and a little (cautiously) optimistic about 2014.

Addendum:

Garza also helps the Brewers in a rebuild.  At the very least he can't hurt a rebuild because he doesn't cost a draft pick.  If they're out of it by the trade deadline having Garza makes Gallardo, or possibly Lohse, more expendable.  Garza himself could even be made available in a trade at some point in the future.