Thoughts on selling/trade value

With a disastrous performance in the first two games of a  entire three game series against the NL Central-leading Cincinatti Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers are just about out of the playoff race. Although crazier things have happened, teams with playoff aspirations do not get shut down by Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, two of the most hittable (read: worst) starting pitchers in baseball. As well as allowing nine runs in two games to an offense that's pretty horrific without Joey Votto. So, assuming the team goes into the blessed and hallowed "sell mode", what can the Brewers reasonably expect for some of these players?

Zack Greinke 
Greinke is the biggest piece the Brewers have. With the news that the Brewers will only receive one compensation pick if he leaves in free agency (instead of two like the old days), the value of keeping him all season and then letting him leave in free agency lessens greatly. There are a lot of issues tied into dealing him, however.

The first (and biggest) one is that the Brewers offered him a contract extension in the $112 million range. Frankly, he would be a lunatic not to take it. He was offered near-Matt Cain money, and although his upside is higher than Cain's (Cain hasn't come close to Greinke's Cy Young season in '09, which was done in the tougher league and in a tougher run environment), he's nowhere near as safe or consistent year-to-year. He's also unlikely to find a deal like it in free agency; Cole Hamels will command the biggest money, and while Greinke is a clear second there are many solid young-ish arms that will cost a fraction of what Greinke will likely ask for (McCarthy, Liriano, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, etc.). Tied in with that is the fact that many high-payroll teams are either disinterested in Greinke or looking to cut costs. The only team that can reasonably be forecasted to offer Greinke a big deal is the Dodgers, and it's no secret the covet Hamels more than anyone.

Another issue is there's plenty of pitching available on the trade market. Why give up a king's ransom for Greinke when you could have Ryan Dempster or Franciso Liraino for less? And if you are willing to go all in, Cole Hamels is the better option and you could argue James Shields is a worthwhile investment as well.

Oh, and about the king's ransom; it's not going to happen. Seeing as the team that trades for Greinke will not receive draft picks when he leaves in FA, the Brewers have much less leverage. They'd either receive a C-level prospect that's close to the bigs but has low upside, or someone with tools who's light years away from contributing. Or a collection of below-average major leaguers. Ick.

Shaun Marcum
Marcum is also a free agent at the end of the year, but he's currently hurt and the only chance the Brewers have of moving him is a post-deadline waiver deal. Not likely to get much for him.

Randy Wolf
Also a free agent. He has a team option for next year but only an imbecile would not buy him out. He's just about worthless as a trade asset. 

Jose Veras
See Wolf, Randy.

Francisco Rodriguez
He's a "closer", and he's a big name, so there's a non-zero chance that a GM become nostalgic and gives up a 4th outfielder or relief prospect for him. The team could move him for nothing just to cut costs.

John Axford
Axford is cheap and under team control for awhile yet, and that's what would make him tempting to a team desperate for relief help despite his struggles. Seeing as relievers a volatile and Axford is sexy when he's right, he could bring back an interesting return. A progressive-thinking GM would think about moving him, but progressive isn't exactly how I would describe Doug Melvin. Not going anywhere.

Corey Hart
Hart could bring back a nice return seeing as the first base position has weakened this year and he's signed through next year on a very reasonable deal. He has a great relationship with the organization and is a good extension candidate, so it's highly unlikely he's dealt. 

Rickie Weeks
Not happening

Aramis Ramirez
It's odd to think that Ramirez could bring back the biggest return, but it's probably true. Bats are hard to come by on the trade market, and he's about as reliable as they come. He's also not a rental, but the next two years of his contract are unsightly. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in him and might part with Nate Eovaldi or (hopefully) Zach Lee to get a competent bat. If they don't get Chase Headley, it could happen. Let's hope it does.

Nyer Morgan
He's the offensive version of K-Rod. Having a bad year, but brings value as a part-time player and was tremendous last year. We can only hope teams trade for the 2011 version of Morgan. Would bring little-to-nothing in return, but would open up playing time for prospect Logan Schafer. 

George Kottaras
George is a great backup catcher and would be an extremely useful piece for a playoff team. It's hard to gauge what return he could bring because his value might greatly exceed how good he actually is. There just aren't many catchers on the market. He's also a decent pinch-hitter but that might be his only role on the Brewers once Jonathan Lucroy returns. Maybe they could package him with Randy Wolf in a trade (GET IT? IT'S A BREWERS JOKE).

Travis Ishikawa
Seems like a classic post-waiver deal. Decent pinch-hitter, can play a couple positions.

Anyone else
There's not much else of worth that the Brewers could move, and certainly not for any real value. I suppose Manny Parra and Kam Loe could go, but whether they like it or not the Brewers have to field a bullpen of some kind. No one wants the shortstops. Braun, Aoki, Gallardo, Lucroy, and anyone else young/cheap are safe, as they should be. 

Manny Parra, high leverage reliever?

Count me among those surprised to see Manny Parra exiting the bullpen door to protect a 3-2 Brewers lead in the 8th inning last night. With John Axford banished to the "get your shit together" role, set-up man Francisco Rodriguez was deemed closer. That left a void in the 8th inning, and although manager Ron Roenicke said there would be no defined roles outside of K-Rod pitching the 9th, the smart money was on some combination of Jose Veras and Kameron Loe holding down the set-up role. Both have had experience pitching in such situations during their careers, so it only made sense. Last night, however, Veras got the last out in the 7th inning, was pinch-hit for in the bottom of the 7th, and in trotted Manny Parra.

Parra has mostly been a man without a role this year. He was kind of a long-reliever to start the year, but Tim Dillard and Loe were both used in that role as well, making him redundant. He's lately been used in something of a LOOGY role, but that seemed like a waste of his abilities seeing as he's always been effective against right-handed hitters in his career. But his propensity for putting butts on bases has always curbed his potential for better things, and Brewers play-by-play guy Brain Anderson put it well when he said that it seems no one in baseball is more affected by being ahead or behind in the count than Manny Parra.

He's been good so far in July, but still looked like his old self during a 7th-inning outing against the Pirates last Friday. He put the first two hitters he faced on base and seemed incapable of throwing a strike, then got two strikeouts and a ground ball to get out of it. Last night though, he looked like a completely different pitcher. Facing the Cardinals' daunting trio of Allen Craig, Jon Jay, and Carlos Beltran, he went right after them, attacking with an assortment of pitches and not bailing when he did get behind in the count.

Parra punched out Craig on a nasty splitter, then used another splitter to get Jay to ground out weakly to first before whiffing Beltran on (surprise) a splitter (PITCH f/x calls it a changeup, I call PITCH f/x a liar). What was most impressive was his ability to throw his curveball for strikes. Generally it's just a show-me pitch to give the batter something to think about, but he used it to baffle Jay and surprise Craig for strike two. He dominated three good hitters and looked confident doing it.

Whether Parra will continue to see high-leverage situations like this is anyone's guess. It might have just been based on matchups, as Jay and Beltran were bad matchups for Loe and burning him on Craig only would have been a waste. And for all we know, Veras may have come back out for the 8th if he hadn't been lifted for a pinch-hitter. But last night may have been a clear indication that Parra is ready for a bigger role, and if so, could be a big key for the Brewers during the stretch run.

First-half grades - pitchers

The Brewers pitching staff has had an odd season. The starting rotation got off to a rough start while the bullpen was passable, and as the season went on the rotation improved while the bullpen fell off of a cliff. The team has basically lived and died by the performance of the pitching staff and I'll be honest, a lot of these guys are tough to grade. Irredisregardless, I'll give it a shot.

Starters

Zack Greinke - 19 starts, 9-3 (W-L), 111 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 WAR
Greinke has really had a great half-season for the Brewers. I don't really know what else to add to that. He had a couple poor starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks where he was basically singled to death, but has otherwise pitched like an ace and is really fun to watch on top of that. He's got a decent shot at the Cy Young award if he keeps this up. Grade: A-

Yovani Gallardo - 18 starts, 7-6, 108.1 IP, 8.89 K/9, 4.15 BB/9, 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
There were a lot of high hopes for Gallardo coming into the season, and some had him pegged as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. Fast-forward to halfway through the season, and Yovani is, well....still Yovani.  And frankly, that's fine. He's still inefficient, still gives up too many home runs, and still gets pounded by the Cardinals, but he's a solid #2 starter and realistically that's what we should expect from him. Many thought he had turned a corner last year by drastically lowering his walk rate, but at this point that seems to have been a mirage. Grade: B-

Shaun Marcum - 13 starts, 5-3, 82.1 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
Marcum was the Brewers' most consistent starter last season, and was well on his way to another solid year when elbow soreness landed him on the DL. Initially slated to return after the All-Star break, Marcum's elbow is still giving him trouble, which is a major concern for a guy who's already had Tommy John surgery once in his career. Grade: B-

Chris Narveson - 2 starts, 1-1, 9 IP, 5.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, -0.1 WAR

Made only two starts (one good, one bad) before a torn rotator cuff injury ended his season. When healthy, he's one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Grade: Incomplete

Randy Wolf - 19 games (18 starts), 2-6, 99.1 IP, 5.89 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 5.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
Wolf has been something of a FIP buster during his time with the Brewers, a guy who puts up a better ERA than his peripheral numbers suggest. But it's all come crashing down this season, and Wolf has been an unmitigated disaster. He's done just about everything poorly, and watching him pitch feels kind of like shoving pencils into my eye sockets. He has an affinity for throwing up and in to righties, but he can't hit that spot for strikes, so he falls behind and then has to throw meatballs just to get into the count. Glancing at his game log, he's had four good starts; three combined against the awful Cubs and Astros, and one against the mediocre Royals. While there's some evidence he's been unlucky (.332 BABIP), he's simply not throwing the quality strikes that he had been the previous two seasons. His starting job is probably safe no matter what, but the Marcum injury assures that he will have no choice but to figure it out in the rotation. Grade: D

Marco Estrada - 14 games (8 starts), 0-3, 51 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 4.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
Estrada has had tremendous value to the Brewers the last two years, bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and pitching reasonably well in both roles. He took over for the injured Narveson early in the season, and has been a pleasant surprise. He's done a great job getting ahead of hitters and mixing his pitches, though he sometimes pays for his zone-pounding ways in the form of home runs. His most memorable performance was his 12 strikeout performance against the Reds, and aside from a brief DL stint has been pretty reliable all season. A nice second half should cement a starting role for him in 2013.
Grade: C+

Michael Fiers - 8 games (7 starts), 3-3, 46.2 IP, 9.64 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Fiers came up and seized a rotation spot by pitching like madman through his first seven starts. His numbers are eerily similar to Estrada's, the difference being Fiers has kept the ball in the park. Like Estrada, he has kind of a "meh" fastball, but his off-speed stuff is pretty great and he's worked the corners of the strike zone better than anyone could have hoped. He's also similar to Estrada in that he's an extreme flyball pitcher who'll spend a lot of time in Miller Park, so some regression is likely coming, but seeing as he doesn't walk anybody I don't foresee him being firebombed often. Fiers is probably a #4 starter long-term, but his performance thus far is impressive and has really saved the Brewers' bacon. Grade: B+

Tyler Thornburg - 1 start, 0-0, 5.1 IP, 3.38 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 8.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Called up for a spot start against Toronto, Thornburg cruised through his big-league debut until the 6th inning, when he served up three consecutive home runs, chasing him from the game. In fairness, the homers were hit by the powerful trio of Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, so it's a bit harsh to judge him from just this start (though he's likely a reliever long-term). We'll probably see Tyler again in September after the All-Star break. Grade: Incomplete

Relievers

Wily Peralta - 1 game, 0-0, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

The consensus top prospect in the Brewers system to start the year, Peralta has struggled with his control in the minors, keeping him from seizing a rotation spot for the big league club. Made one relief appearance during a brief call-up in April, and was immediately sent back down. Peralta seems to have turned his season around in AAA, and will almost certainly be the first guy up if an injury/trade occurs. Grade: Incomplete

Mike McClendon - 4 games, 0-0, 8 IP, 4.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 6.75 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

McClendon has bounced back and forth between the Brewers and the AAA club the last few years, and until this year had pitched reasonably well. But there's a reason why he's never stuck around long, and that reason is that he's not very good. A pure deception guy with a goofy delivery that he changes from pitch to pitch, it can get ugly when a team figures him out. His four appearances this year a largely forgettable. 

Grade: F

Livan Hernandez - 6 games, 1-0, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 6.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, -0.2 WAR

Claimed off of waivers from Atlanta, Livan is fat, old, kinda fun to watch, and just about done as a major leaguer. He's passable as a long reliever (or Jabba the Hut doppelgänger), which is hopefully where he'll stay until someone better is found (Seth McClung?). Grade: D+

Vinnie Chulk - 7 games, 1-0, 9 IP, 10.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 10.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

In and out of the majors since 2003, Chulk was an absolute apocalypse during his brief tenure with the Brewers. Words cannot describe how truly awful he was. Basically a mop-up guy, he was scorched (a remarkable 36.4 line drive % allowed) in all but three appearances, one of them being an important scoreless two-inning outing in an extra-inning win over the Cubs where he was the last man available to pitch. Sadly, that outing was a red herring. Grade: F

Juan Perez - 10 games, 0-1, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 5.14 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Was up for about a month and did typical crappy LOOGY things. Lots of strikeouts and walks, not really good enough to stick. Grade: D-

Tim Dillard - 34 games, 0-2, 37 IP, 7.05 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
Dillard has gained something of a cult following due to his funky sidearm delivery, hat tilt, sideburns, killer Tim Kurkjian impersonation, and that one time he wiggled out of a bases-loaded, one out jam. But the Legend of Tim Dillard is fading; he should only be facing right handed batters due to his ROOGY ways, but as the season's worn on righties have been hitting the ball harder and harder off of him. His numbers aren't awful and he has some uses but with Kameron Loe around, he's kind of redundant. Grade: D

John Axford - 36 games, 2-5 (15 saves), 34.1 IP, 12.84 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 4.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
The struggles of John Axford have been well-documented. The walks and home runs allowed have skyrocketed this season, and that's a deadly combination. There are some signs that he may have been a bit unlucky, but it's still pretty embarrassing that guys like Clint Barmes and Gaby Sanchez are hitting bombs off of him. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but the first half of 2012 was a largely forgettable one for the Ax-man. Grade: C-


Manny Parra - 36 games, 1-3, 39 IP, 9.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

At the beginning of the season, I was excited at the thought of Parra as a reliever. His control issues coupled with an inability to get through a batting order multiple times prevented him from reaching his potential as a starter, but those problems would be minimized in the bullpen. He could just crank it up for an inning or two and not have to worry about batters figuring him out. Unfortunately, Parra's struggles followed him to his relief role. His walks and home runs allowed have gone down along with his ground ball % going up (all good things), but he still falls behind hitters far too often, leading him to groove hittable pitches that batters are smoking for line drives. He has improved against left-handed hitters (he was a reverse platoon split guy coming into this season) and he strung together some nice outings coming into the break, so there's still hope he can be a valuable member of the bullpen in the second half. Grade: C-

Kameron Loe - 37 games, 4-2, 38.2 IP, 6.52 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
Kam does two things well; get ground balls and slay right-handed batters. He hasn't done those things quite as well this season as he has in the past, but he's still a really nice guy to have around. Used heavily the first couple months of the season, he has trouble locating his bowling ball of a sinker when he's tired, which turns those ground balls into line drives. The usage pattern combined with his skill set and his willingness to do the dirty work can lead to wild ERA fluctuations during a season, but when he's right, he's one of the more reliable arms in the bullpen. Grade: C

Jose Veras - 40 games, 3-3, 37 IP, 9.97 K/9, 6.08 BB/9, 4.62 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

WALKS. LOTS OF WALKS. Grade: D+

Francisco Rodriguez - 42 games, 1-4, 38.2 IP, 7.91 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Like Axford, K-Rod hasn't been able to follow up his stellar 2011 campaign. Home runs have been a huge problem, and his ability to generate swings-and-misses has faded. He's also giving up more walks and line drives, and he's not even been all that unlucky; a .318 BABIP allowed, which is above league average but not outrageous. All these things put together reveal a pitcher with eroding skills, and it's been costing the Brewers in close games. Grade: C-