Brewers/Cardinals Series review - "I Win the Game if You Beg Me to Cut Off Your Finger"

Results:
Thursday, 5/2 Cardinals 6, Brewers 5
Friday, 5/3 Cardinals 6, Brewers 1
Saturday, 5/4 Cardinals 7, Brewers 6
Sunday, 5/5 Cardinals 10, Brewers 1

Win Probability Stars
5/4 Jonathan Lucroy singled to center. Martin Maldonado and Alex Gonzalez scored. (+.179 WPA)

5/4 Norichika Aoki sacrifice fielder's choice to catcher (Bunt Grounder). Jeff Bianchi scored. Logan Schafer advanced to 2B. (+.172 WPA)

5/4 Logan Schafer singled to center. Jeff Bianchi advanced to 3B. (+.172 WPA)


I know, that's a long title. "Game of Thrones" fans likely recognized that quote and cringed a little bit at the thought of it. For those unfamiliar, this was said from one character to his tied-up captive in the midst of a vicious guessing game, and I thought it was fitting here. The Cardinals toyed with the Brewers this series the same way the "Game of Thrones" prisoner was being played with by his torturer. For games 1 and 3, the Cardinals gave the Brewers just enough of a window to possibly win the game, only to slam it in their face right when they were on the cusp of doing so. Then in games 2 and 4, they just blew them out like it was nothing, scoring runs at will in the process via bloops, bleeders and long balls.

Fun fact: no Brewers starter made it past 5 innings this series, and neither of them allowed less than 4 earned runs. Pretty neat, hey?

I hate the Cardinals. Hate 'em. And there's multiple reasons for it.

Part of it is jealousy. They're a well run organization from the top down with a long tradition of winning. To even deny that's a factor would be kidding myself. But many like me are fortunate enough to follow a football team who also carries these same traits, who also help ease the pain during the Brewers down seasons (apologies to fans raised on Minnesota, Illinois or any other state's football. My condolences.)

Another long handed-down tradition of the Cardinals is bitching and moaning, bred by the Tony LaRussa school of professionalism. This is where a larger part of the hatred comes from. It's their shit-don't-stink attitudes, the way they just seem to suck fun out of the game, and the extremely large ego of their fan base – the self-proclaimed "Best Fans in Baseball."

And that's not to mention the gobs of luck of they always seem to be swimming in. I've made a stink in the past over the Giants last couple World Series-winning clubs overachieving. But the Cardinals previous two winners? They make each of San Francisco's teams look like the Ruth-Gehrig Yankees.

JUST CATCH THE FLIPPIN' BALL, NELSON!!!

Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest. There really wasn't a lot to say about this series outside of that, other than Braun appears to be out of his funk. Rickie Weeks, on the other hand, continues to keep us guessing on whether he's broken out of slump or not.


MVP: Warm Weather


If you spent your time outdoors instead of watching every minute of these games, you are the real winner here.


LVP: Marco Estrada

Sorry, John Axford won it last week. A starting pitcher had to take the cake this time, and Estrada turned in the worst of the group, which also happened to be his second straight poor outing.

The Brewers were in a tough spot from the word "go" this season with their starting pitching, originally having to rely on Estrada to be their #2 starter. Even as a #3 in the rotation, they're asking a lot out of a pitcher who really is more of a back-end guy. Stepping up against some of the more talented starters in the league is always going to have mixed results for him, but especially against the Cardinals multitude of talented starters. He's simply overmatched more often than not.

That's not to say Estrada can't hold his own from time to time, but the early results tell us that gambling on a guy like Estrada to overachieve from what he is might be just asking TOO much of him.

Play of the Series: Ryan Braun's diving grab





Now that I'm done being a snarky sourpuss, I'll acknowledge that Braun actually had himself a pretty good series, and was probably the real MVP.

Watching some of the Brewers reserve outfielder out in left has helped further my appreciation for the progress Braun has made on his defense these past few years, and it's comforting to know that he can  save his own skin when he takes a not-so-good route on a tough fly ball, as was the case here.

Just another reminder that Ryan Braun is good at baseball.

What's Next

The Brewers host a two-game series against the Texas Rangers in their first interleague series of the year. The Rangers are coming in tied for the best record in baseball at 20-11 after sweeping the Boston Red Sox. The Brewers and Rangers are meeting for the first time in 3 years, and this will actually be the first of two meetings between the two teams this season, with a second two-game series set for the second weekend in August in Arlington.

Probable starters
5/7 Peralta vs. Grimm
5/8 Lohse vs. Holland

Brewers/Cubs series review - We Won a Game!

This review is brought to you by The Goat Emporium. Goat Heads: Because what else would you expect?

Will the rain ever end? The weather finally caught up with the team and washed out the would-be final game of the series tonight, meaning that this bad boy is over, baby.

What a hum dinger this series was! And when I say that, I mean it was about as good as an episode of "Keeping Up the Kardashians" (I know, how 2012 of me!). It actually wasn't that bad, they did win a game after all, but it feels like they should have won both. To sum up this series – the offense looked good for the first 11 innings, the starting pitching looked worlds better (even if it was the Cubs), and the bullpen appears to be as bad, if not worse, than last year. The hot topic in Brewer Nation today surrounded Roenicke's decision to use John Axford for an additional inning after bringing him into a tie game in the 7th to get the final out. And right in line with the rest of his 2013 season to date, Axford bombed again, promptly loading the bases before being pulled in favor of Alfredo Figaro, who allowed all three baserunners to score (et tu, Alfredo?).

I made my own thoughts pretty clear last night on Twitter as to what I thought of Roenicke's decision to stick with Axford, so I'll try to be a little more even-keeled here. I get what he was thinking: tie game, have a somewhat tired bullpen, just lost Narveson to the DL, and don't want to go into extras burning two relievers against two batters. I get that. The question I'm wondering, more or less, was why he even used Axford in the 7th to begin with? In case you've been living under a rock recently, John Axford has not been good so far this season. Some think it may be a change in his release point, others pointing to dips in velocity, but whatever the reason is, he's been really off and getting absolutely bludgeoned. He's been getting hit so hard, in fact, that Roenicke removed him from the closer role just a couple days ago. So why did he go with Ax if we're not even sure whether or not he actually trusts him? Your guess is as good as mine. The facts are these: John Axford has been mostly ineffective this season, and whether or not he'll eventually figure it out, he probably should be kept away from high-leverage situations for a long while.

So, what could have been a pretty good series ended on a sour note, despite a good showing by the other facets of the team: offense and starting pitching. And actually, if we want to get technical, the offense may not have even scored more than one run yesterday if not for some rough defense by Starlin Castro (which isn't terribly unusual). Even still, Estrada and Peralta both looked on top of their games, giving the team at least 6 2/3 innings on back-to-back nights. Maybe this little bit of success will spread through the Brewers dugout like a raging case of Good Luck Pox? Or maybe they'll just spread Chicken Pox. Wouldn't that be the worst?

Okay, enough blather, it's awards time.

MVP: Wily Peralta

I know. Braun was 5 for 9, and Aoki has been on fire. But guess what? Ryan Braun will often be 5 for 9, and I want to save giving this honor to Aoki for that one series he'll have this year where he'll somehow hit 3 home runs, including 2 in one game.

The big question coming into this season was the pitching, and after the first 6 games, things we're not looking good for anyone outside of the usual suspects. If the Brewers hopes for this year and beyond fall on anyone in particular, though, it's this young man. Peralta has been rated as the Brewers top prospect by pretty much every baseball analyst out there, and he sure looked the part last night. He had his fastball topping out at 96 mph, moving away and in on hitters like it was being pulled by a string. Yes, it was the Cubs, and on top of that, it was a cold night. But you know what? Peralta already has the stuff to put away top-level hitters regardless, and there's little questioning that. What he needs to find is consistency in his control, and 62 strikes out of 94 pitches is exactly the kind of thing that will lead to long term success. Very nice to see out of a young pitcher like Peralta.

And on top of everything else, he was 1-2 with a walk. Eat your heart out, Yovani!

LVP: The Bullpen

I've got the fear, you guys. I've got it real bad.

Okay, bit of an overreaction there. As poor as the bullpen has looked so far, I'm going to predict that things get straightened out sooner rather than later. A common trend with early struggles is that they either fix themselves quickly or are eliminated through replacement. It's highly unlikely Axford sees a save situation again any time soon, and aside from a couple struggles this series, Kintzler, Figaro  and Henderson have looked better than decent. I'm all aboard a bullpen by committee, because when you don't have a dominant relief pitcher, you're better off riding the hot hand.

Don't believe me? Just look at the last two World Series champs. The Cardinals and Giants we're having some rather troubling bullpen issues until they hit the final stretch towards the playoffs. And you know how they did it? Handing the ball to whoever was throwing the best at the time. Sometimes, it's just that easy.

Play of the Series:

Fun fact: Marco Estrada is averaging one hit per start, and has an many RBIs as Aramis Ramirez so far this season. Pitcher hits are always the best.

What's Next:

The Brewers road trip continues into the cannibalistic Ozarks of St. Louis. Reformed baby-eater, Kyle Lohse, will be starting the first game of the series against his former team and his replacement, Shelby Miller. The Cardinals are 5-4 to start the year, but have just lost their closer, Jason Motte ,to the DL for what might be the season. That's not to say their new closer, Mitchell Boggs, is much worse than Motte, especially coming off of a nice year playing 8th-inning guy for manager Mike Matheny, but his Axfordian start to the season may give way to some pretty wild ninth innings throughout this series. Oh, and did I mention that the Cardinals eat babies?

We don't discriminate on species.

Till Friday, folks. Keep the faith!

Marco Estrada's quality pitches

Starting pitcher Marco Estrada has been quite a find for the Brewers organization. The Sufjan Stevens lookalike was once a midlevel prospect that was claimed off waivers from the Nationals and was even dropped off the Brewers roster once upon a time. He fought for and won a spot on the team entering the 2011 season and hasn't looked back. At first, it looked like Estrada would be a solid swingman type, a guy who could pitch long relief in the bullpen and fill in as a starter when needed. But this year, he's become so much more than that. He whiffs 9.43 batters per nine coupled with a walk rate of 1.89, translating to a 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good enough for third in the majors behind Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis (minimum 100 IP). And he's not exactly hittable either, giving up less than a hit per inning. While Estrada still has trouble with the long ball, his ability to limit baserunners keeps the damage fairly minimal. So how is a guy with a fairly average fastball dominating major league hitters?

Fastball

Prior to this season, Estrada has been something of a changeup specialist, using his fastball to set up his changeup and using his curveball to keep hitters off-balance. But this year, he's not just using the fastball as a means to an end, but as an actual weapon to get hitters out. Even though his fastball sits at 90 mph, his impeccable control assists him in putting said pitch in places where hitters have trouble doing anything with it. His heat maps tell a pretty convincing story; he's attacking left-handed hitters up and away with his fastball, and throwing down and away to righties.

Pitching primarily with an ordinary fastball is risky business, and when Marco misses it leads to hard contact. But he's missing less this year than in the past, and whether the improved control is due to him figuring it out or just settling in with more consistent usage is anyone's guess. Either way, he's not just throwing strikes, he's throwing quality strikes. And being able to get ahead in the count has made his secondary pitches more dangerous.

Changeup

The changeup has always been a putaway pitch for Estrada during his time as a Brewer, but this year he's cut back on his usage of it. But that doesn't mean he's lost faith in the pitch or that the pitch isn't effective, he's just using it better. PITCHf/x pitch values claims his change is a little below average, and while I don't necessarily buy that, either way the pitch is still valued higher than in previous years. From watching his starts this year, it appears that he's cut back on using it early in the count, instead saving it to get a needed whiff. This at-bat against Brian McCann is a textbook example 

The first two pitches of the at-bat were fastballs up in the zone that McCann fouled off. With McCann down 0-2 and in survival mode, Estrada threw a filthy changeup with arm-side run the McCann dove for and foul tipped for strike three. Estrada put the pitch right where he wanted it, and it drew an awkward looking swing. It's a credit to McCann as a hitter that he even foul tipped it (whiff 19 seconds into this video).

                                                                                McCannope.

Curveball

This is probably his most underrated pitch. He has two slightly different versions of it, a sharp 12-6 curve that he gets a lot of sneaky called strikes on, and a slurvy-looking thing that he doesn't use often and seems to still be working on (PITCHf/x does not differentiate between the two). He commands his primary curve well, and will use it in just about any count to keep hitters off of his fastball. Like his changeup, when hitters aren't expecting it it can lead to some ugly swings, like this one from a surprised Michael Bourn (about 30 seconds into the same video).

     

                                             Do you see the ball? Neither does Michael Bourn.

All told, Estrada has been a bright spot for the team in 2012 and is almost certain to have a rotation spot in 2013 and beyond. Not bad for a scrap heap pickup. And there's still room for growth. The Brewers organization has done a good job in helping pitchers develop cut fastballs, and if at some point Estrada can add a reliable cutter or perhaps a two-seamer, maybe he can become more than the #4 or #5 starter he's perceived to be. 

Can the Brewers count on Mark Rogers next year?

Despite a disappointing season, it's not all frowns for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. They've had encouraging performances from many young players, namely Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Carlos Gomez. But even though those players (as well as Nori Aoki) have been pleasant surprises, the guy who had the most to overcome might be former pitching prospect Mark Rogers. A 2004 first-round pick, Rogers has had a whopping four two shoulder surgeries as well as two wrist surgeries since joining the Brewers organization. He was an afterthought coming into the season, and honestly, I thought he was done as a baseball player after the wrist surgeries and subsequent poor minor league performance in 2011. If you had told me that he would secure a major league rotation spot before Tyler Thornburg or Wily Peralta, I would have called you a filthy liar.

But I would have been wrong. Rogers pitch fairly well in AAA Nashville, and earned a promotion to the Brewers' starting rotation following the Zack Greinke trade. While his major league numbers (5.02 ERA) seem just okay after five starts, there's evidence he's been unlucky; that lofty ERA is accompanied by a .316 BABIP, 67.9 LOB %, and an inflated 15.4% HR/FB rate, leading to a 3.79 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. In short, better things may be in store. Of course, that's assuming he stays healthy.

In eight seasons in the organization, this is only the second time he's eclipsed 100 innings pitched (2010 being the other). The team has hinted at shutting him down after a couple more starts, which is not only good for his health but should give the team an opportunity to get a look at Hiram Burgos, Peralta or Thornburg in the major league rotation. It's a double-edged sword; while it keeps his workload in check, if any of the aforementioned youngsters are lights-out in his absence, it could cost him a spot in the majors next year.

Looking at what's currently in the organization, a 2013 rotation could consist of Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and two of the group of Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Chris Narveson, and perhaps Burgos. And that's assuming the team doesn't make a trade or go after a free agent or two, which would further muddy the waters. The team will likely try to contend in 2013, meaning that the likelihood of them going into next season with the above rotation is very unlikely.

It's not all bad for Rogers, however. While he hasn't been very reliable, there's reason to believe he could still push hard for a rotation spot no matter what the team does to supplement the pitching staff. Among his likely competitors, Peralta has struggled greatly with control in the minors, Thornburg might be too small to be a SP and has had trouble with the long ball, and Burgos hasn't proven himself in the majors yet. Estrada would seem to have a leg up on a rotation spot, but has pitched well in the bullpen before and may be a better fit for a relief role than Rogers. While a relief spot may seem good for Rogers in theory, less innings for him may not equate health; he's be pitching less innings, sure, but he'd likely be throwing harder more often. And the team has shown no interest whatsoever in making him a reliever. Not to mention that despite everything that's happened to him, he's still touching 97 mph with his fastball and breaking a wicked slider.

Personally, if I were running the team next year (read: I won't be) I'd give him every opportunity to win a starting rotation spot. While it's small sample size, it's hard to ignore a 31/9 K/BB ratio, which is what he's done in the majors this year. That kind of strikeout ability has a lot of value for a 4th or 5th starter, even if he's only going five or six innings a start. And if he once again can't stay healthy (I doubt he would lose a spot due to performance), the team would have options for replacing him. Can they count on him? Probably not, but because of there backup options, they don't really have to.

Braun bombs, Hart slams, Jim Henderson saves, Brewers win 7-4

The Brewers' performance last night against the Phucking Phillies of Philadelphia is generally something we're used to seeing happen against us, not for us. After coughing up a lead in the middle innings, the Brewers started a two-out rally against Cliff Lee, who gave way to Josh Lindblom, thus starting a spectacular bullpen asplosion capped off by a towering Corey Hart grand slam. In fact, home runs accounted for all the runs against the Phillies, as Ryan Braun hit two opposite-field moonshots off of Cliff Lee and Aramis Ramirez added one of his own, a towering tater right after Braun's in the first inning. Braun's homers were a welcome sight, breaking him out of a 9-47 slump during which he seemed really out of sorts at the plate.

Brewers starter Marco Estrada couldn't hold a 3-1 lead in the 5th, loading the bases with two outs and then serving up a bases clearing double to some homeless guy Kevin Frandsen to give the Phillies a 4-3 lead which they would hold until Lindblom's apocalypse in the 8th. Frandsen did his part to give the lead back to the Brewers, committing a two-out error that allowed Rickie Weeks to reach and chase the whiff-tacular Cliff Lee (7.2 IP, 3 ER,12 K) from the game.

It was then that Braun and Ramirez's wonder twin powers would once again be activated, as Lindblom couldn't throw anything resembling a strike to either of them, walking both and setting up Hart's heroics. Despite the three-run lead, the game was far from over with the Brewers bullpen still having to get three outs. I was actually excited to see Manny Parra come in for the save, seeing as he's been the team's best pitcher the last month or so and, in a hilarious turn of events, the Phillies were sending up three straight left-handed batters. Parra made Chase Utley look like a doof to get the first out, then a Ryan Howard single and a Domonic Brown cheapie infield hit off of Rickie Weeks' glove brought in Jim Henderson to try to get the last two outs.

I was hoping Roenicke would stick with Parra simply for the sake of why not, but Henderson made it moot by whiffing the uniquely terrible Ty Wiggington and getting Erik Kratz to ground out (sandwiched around a Frandsen single to load the bases). I'm not sure if Henderson is emerging as the "closer" or if Parra starting the 9th is proof that the committee is still a thing, but it was at least refreshing to see the bullpen get some outs for once, pitching four shutout innings overall after Estrada departed. Jose Veras was nastily wild for two innings, Livan Hernandez baffled three Phillies hitters by throwing strikes, and Parra and Henderson got the last three outs to get a win that felt more reminiscent of last year than this year.

Brewers take two of three from Pirates, who are still striking out

Gosh frick, do the Pittsburgh Pirates have a terrible offense. After striking out a remarkable 15 times in a win against the Brewers on Saturday, the Pirates upped the ante on themselves by whiffing 17 times in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. Brewers starting pitchers Marco Estrada and Yovani Gallardo punched out 11 and 14 Pirates respectively, and if it weren't for some shoddy defense on Saturday the Brewers might have had their second sweep of the season.

Speaking of defense, the Pirates aren't good at that either. For reasons that no one can understand, manager Clint Hurdle plays butcher Pedro Alvarez at third base while playing slow-but-reliable fielder Casey McGehee at first. McGehee has been a career third baseman, while Alvarez should be a career DH. Oh yeah, and Sunday's corner outfielders were Drew Sutton and Garrett Jones, two of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball (Jones should be playing first base, Sutton has been a utility infielder for most of his career). 

                                   Every time a ball is hit to Pedro Alvarez, a demon gets it's horns.

In a sequence of events that should have surprised no one, the Brewers scored all four of their runs in one inning, helped out by a horrific throwing error by Jones and an fielding error by Alvarez that the official scorer later changed to a double for some reason. Brewers slug/third baseman Aramis Ramirez even stole a base in the inning, which happened because the Pirates are the worst team in baseball at throwing out basestealers. And Pirates catcher Rod Barajas' throw was so bad it injured second baseman Neil Walker.

And going back to the Pirates' offense for a second, Andrew McCutchen is amazing. He hit a home run in every game of the series (four in a row overall), and was on base three times today. Everyone else on the team reached base twice. In 28 attempts. And struck out 17 times. Gallardo's 14 K's were a career high. You'd think that the Pirates offense wasn't all that terrible considering they scored 13 runs on the first two games of the series, but for the season they are 22nd in runs scored. McCutchen is by himself. Get him some help, Pirates. 

Maybe Justin Upton?

But probably not. 

First-half grades - pitchers

The Brewers pitching staff has had an odd season. The starting rotation got off to a rough start while the bullpen was passable, and as the season went on the rotation improved while the bullpen fell off of a cliff. The team has basically lived and died by the performance of the pitching staff and I'll be honest, a lot of these guys are tough to grade. Irredisregardless, I'll give it a shot.

Starters

Zack Greinke - 19 starts, 9-3 (W-L), 111 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 WAR
Greinke has really had a great half-season for the Brewers. I don't really know what else to add to that. He had a couple poor starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks where he was basically singled to death, but has otherwise pitched like an ace and is really fun to watch on top of that. He's got a decent shot at the Cy Young award if he keeps this up. Grade: A-

Yovani Gallardo - 18 starts, 7-6, 108.1 IP, 8.89 K/9, 4.15 BB/9, 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
There were a lot of high hopes for Gallardo coming into the season, and some had him pegged as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. Fast-forward to halfway through the season, and Yovani is, well....still Yovani.  And frankly, that's fine. He's still inefficient, still gives up too many home runs, and still gets pounded by the Cardinals, but he's a solid #2 starter and realistically that's what we should expect from him. Many thought he had turned a corner last year by drastically lowering his walk rate, but at this point that seems to have been a mirage. Grade: B-

Shaun Marcum - 13 starts, 5-3, 82.1 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
Marcum was the Brewers' most consistent starter last season, and was well on his way to another solid year when elbow soreness landed him on the DL. Initially slated to return after the All-Star break, Marcum's elbow is still giving him trouble, which is a major concern for a guy who's already had Tommy John surgery once in his career. Grade: B-

Chris Narveson - 2 starts, 1-1, 9 IP, 5.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, -0.1 WAR

Made only two starts (one good, one bad) before a torn rotator cuff injury ended his season. When healthy, he's one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Grade: Incomplete

Randy Wolf - 19 games (18 starts), 2-6, 99.1 IP, 5.89 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 5.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
Wolf has been something of a FIP buster during his time with the Brewers, a guy who puts up a better ERA than his peripheral numbers suggest. But it's all come crashing down this season, and Wolf has been an unmitigated disaster. He's done just about everything poorly, and watching him pitch feels kind of like shoving pencils into my eye sockets. He has an affinity for throwing up and in to righties, but he can't hit that spot for strikes, so he falls behind and then has to throw meatballs just to get into the count. Glancing at his game log, he's had four good starts; three combined against the awful Cubs and Astros, and one against the mediocre Royals. While there's some evidence he's been unlucky (.332 BABIP), he's simply not throwing the quality strikes that he had been the previous two seasons. His starting job is probably safe no matter what, but the Marcum injury assures that he will have no choice but to figure it out in the rotation. Grade: D

Marco Estrada - 14 games (8 starts), 0-3, 51 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 4.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
Estrada has had tremendous value to the Brewers the last two years, bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and pitching reasonably well in both roles. He took over for the injured Narveson early in the season, and has been a pleasant surprise. He's done a great job getting ahead of hitters and mixing his pitches, though he sometimes pays for his zone-pounding ways in the form of home runs. His most memorable performance was his 12 strikeout performance against the Reds, and aside from a brief DL stint has been pretty reliable all season. A nice second half should cement a starting role for him in 2013.
Grade: C+

Michael Fiers - 8 games (7 starts), 3-3, 46.2 IP, 9.64 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Fiers came up and seized a rotation spot by pitching like madman through his first seven starts. His numbers are eerily similar to Estrada's, the difference being Fiers has kept the ball in the park. Like Estrada, he has kind of a "meh" fastball, but his off-speed stuff is pretty great and he's worked the corners of the strike zone better than anyone could have hoped. He's also similar to Estrada in that he's an extreme flyball pitcher who'll spend a lot of time in Miller Park, so some regression is likely coming, but seeing as he doesn't walk anybody I don't foresee him being firebombed often. Fiers is probably a #4 starter long-term, but his performance thus far is impressive and has really saved the Brewers' bacon. Grade: B+

Tyler Thornburg - 1 start, 0-0, 5.1 IP, 3.38 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 8.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Called up for a spot start against Toronto, Thornburg cruised through his big-league debut until the 6th inning, when he served up three consecutive home runs, chasing him from the game. In fairness, the homers were hit by the powerful trio of Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, so it's a bit harsh to judge him from just this start (though he's likely a reliever long-term). We'll probably see Tyler again in September after the All-Star break. Grade: Incomplete

Relievers

Wily Peralta - 1 game, 0-0, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

The consensus top prospect in the Brewers system to start the year, Peralta has struggled with his control in the minors, keeping him from seizing a rotation spot for the big league club. Made one relief appearance during a brief call-up in April, and was immediately sent back down. Peralta seems to have turned his season around in AAA, and will almost certainly be the first guy up if an injury/trade occurs. Grade: Incomplete

Mike McClendon - 4 games, 0-0, 8 IP, 4.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 6.75 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

McClendon has bounced back and forth between the Brewers and the AAA club the last few years, and until this year had pitched reasonably well. But there's a reason why he's never stuck around long, and that reason is that he's not very good. A pure deception guy with a goofy delivery that he changes from pitch to pitch, it can get ugly when a team figures him out. His four appearances this year a largely forgettable. 

Grade: F

Livan Hernandez - 6 games, 1-0, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 6.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, -0.2 WAR

Claimed off of waivers from Atlanta, Livan is fat, old, kinda fun to watch, and just about done as a major leaguer. He's passable as a long reliever (or Jabba the Hut doppelgänger), which is hopefully where he'll stay until someone better is found (Seth McClung?). Grade: D+

Vinnie Chulk - 7 games, 1-0, 9 IP, 10.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 10.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

In and out of the majors since 2003, Chulk was an absolute apocalypse during his brief tenure with the Brewers. Words cannot describe how truly awful he was. Basically a mop-up guy, he was scorched (a remarkable 36.4 line drive % allowed) in all but three appearances, one of them being an important scoreless two-inning outing in an extra-inning win over the Cubs where he was the last man available to pitch. Sadly, that outing was a red herring. Grade: F

Juan Perez - 10 games, 0-1, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 5.14 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Was up for about a month and did typical crappy LOOGY things. Lots of strikeouts and walks, not really good enough to stick. Grade: D-

Tim Dillard - 34 games, 0-2, 37 IP, 7.05 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
Dillard has gained something of a cult following due to his funky sidearm delivery, hat tilt, sideburns, killer Tim Kurkjian impersonation, and that one time he wiggled out of a bases-loaded, one out jam. But the Legend of Tim Dillard is fading; he should only be facing right handed batters due to his ROOGY ways, but as the season's worn on righties have been hitting the ball harder and harder off of him. His numbers aren't awful and he has some uses but with Kameron Loe around, he's kind of redundant. Grade: D

John Axford - 36 games, 2-5 (15 saves), 34.1 IP, 12.84 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 4.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
The struggles of John Axford have been well-documented. The walks and home runs allowed have skyrocketed this season, and that's a deadly combination. There are some signs that he may have been a bit unlucky, but it's still pretty embarrassing that guys like Clint Barmes and Gaby Sanchez are hitting bombs off of him. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but the first half of 2012 was a largely forgettable one for the Ax-man. Grade: C-


Manny Parra - 36 games, 1-3, 39 IP, 9.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

At the beginning of the season, I was excited at the thought of Parra as a reliever. His control issues coupled with an inability to get through a batting order multiple times prevented him from reaching his potential as a starter, but those problems would be minimized in the bullpen. He could just crank it up for an inning or two and not have to worry about batters figuring him out. Unfortunately, Parra's struggles followed him to his relief role. His walks and home runs allowed have gone down along with his ground ball % going up (all good things), but he still falls behind hitters far too often, leading him to groove hittable pitches that batters are smoking for line drives. He has improved against left-handed hitters (he was a reverse platoon split guy coming into this season) and he strung together some nice outings coming into the break, so there's still hope he can be a valuable member of the bullpen in the second half. Grade: C-

Kameron Loe - 37 games, 4-2, 38.2 IP, 6.52 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
Kam does two things well; get ground balls and slay right-handed batters. He hasn't done those things quite as well this season as he has in the past, but he's still a really nice guy to have around. Used heavily the first couple months of the season, he has trouble locating his bowling ball of a sinker when he's tired, which turns those ground balls into line drives. The usage pattern combined with his skill set and his willingness to do the dirty work can lead to wild ERA fluctuations during a season, but when he's right, he's one of the more reliable arms in the bullpen. Grade: C

Jose Veras - 40 games, 3-3, 37 IP, 9.97 K/9, 6.08 BB/9, 4.62 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

WALKS. LOTS OF WALKS. Grade: D+

Francisco Rodriguez - 42 games, 1-4, 38.2 IP, 7.91 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Like Axford, K-Rod hasn't been able to follow up his stellar 2011 campaign. Home runs have been a huge problem, and his ability to generate swings-and-misses has faded. He's also giving up more walks and line drives, and he's not even been all that unlucky; a .318 BABIP allowed, which is above league average but not outrageous. All these things put together reveal a pitcher with eroding skills, and it's been costing the Brewers in close games. Grade: C-