Happy holidays, everyone. It's that magical time of year when fake Cesar Izturis twitter accounts are created and signings like Johnny Gomes are big news. Hopefully you have something like football or basketball to keep you entertained and don't have to sit at your computer and refresh mlbtraderumors.com every few seconds.
New faces
It's my pleasure to announce a pair additions to the Book of Gorman staff, Tom Stadler and Corey Heim. They will be assisting me in making this site much more awesome and less like it sucks so bad. Tom is a UW alum, bacon lover, all-around cool cat, and also a master of karate and friendship for everyone. His first post for TBOG is here (spoiler: it kicks ass) and his previous work can be found here (also kicks ass). Corey is very passionate and intelligent, and one HELL of a model American. I highly recommend his personal blog and I'm excited for his contributions in the future.
Awards happened
I truly care about the awards handed out at the end of the Major League Baseball season, which is unfortunate because it makes me a crazy person. I won't get into stuff like snubs (BRENDAN RYAN) or injustice (MIKE TROUT), but I will mention that our boy Ryan Braun finished second in NL MVP voting to Buster Posey. While the gap in voting isn't reflective on how close the two players were in actual value, it's still somewhat encouraging as far as the voting process is concerned that Braun was on every ballot and got a few first place votes (if only the AL MVP were as rational). I've been trumpeting Braun as the MVP all season, and while I still believe him to be the most valuable, Posey had a great season of his own and is very deserving (even if he didn't carpet bomb the likes of Petco Park and Target Field with homers like Braun did). Aramis Ramirez finished 9th in the voting, which is cool.
Some guys were signed
The Brewers made some minor moves, signing catcher Blake Lalli and pitchers Zach Kroenke and Frankie De La Cruz to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training. De La Cruz pitched briefly for the Brewers in 2011, and pitched reasonably well at that. Kroenke is a former Yankees and Diamondbacks farmhand that also has a smidge of major league experience and a last name that sounds like something the Crocodile Hunter would yell in a moment of excitement. Lalli is a run-of-the-mill depth guy who had 16 plate appearances with the Cubs last season and not much else. He isn't Will Nieves, so there's that.
Dumb rumors
The Josh Hamilton rumors involving the Brewers just won't die, which is unfortunate because they should die. Aside from the facts that Hamilton is expensive, doesn't fill a need, and is a huge injury/off-field risk, all of the "interest" the Brewers have supposedly shown is nothing but pure speculation on the part of bored baseball writers trying to make a connection because Hamilton and Brewers hitting coach Jerry Narron are buds. Nevermind that the team already has a top offense, is trying to ease back on the payroll, and has needs on the pitching staff. Unless Narron feels like donating a few hundred million to the cause, Josh Hamilton will not be a Brewer.
The Book of Gorman. The internet's only Brewers blog since 1907.
Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Friday, September 21, 2012
Handicapping the NL MVP
While the race for the American League MVP has heated up a little bit between the amazing Mike Trout and the Triple-Crownin' Miguel Cabrera, the NL version of the award has gotten more boring. Andrew McCutchen was the primary candidate for most of the season, but his team has fallen off the map and his poor play in August contributed to the Pirates' downfall. David Wright has had a terrific season for the Mets, but the Mets are horrible, and he won't get many votes as a result. Buster Posey wasn't even the best candidate on his own team for most of the year, but he's been on fire the last couple months and has a boatload of narratives that essentially guarantee him the award. Posey is also likable and has a cute name. Meanwhile, Ryan Braun is the elephant in the room, the player that won the award in 2011 and has been consistently awesome all season. Like Posey, he should have a little boost due to his team being relevant, but he won't win the award, and we all know why. But the most annoying part is that people will claim Posey is the clear winner based on his contributions, which is silly. I'll go into why in a bit, but first, here is a handy graph I've created which I like to call the Chances of Winning MVP Probability Graph (or COWMVPPG) for short.
Don't worry about the math behind this, it checks out. As you can see, Braun has no chance. The issue is Posey has so many things going for him that have nothing to do with real baseball things, it's almost stupid. In fact, it is stupid. We cannot measure how much Posey is "carrying the team on his back" or "came through when his team needed him". He's been great in the second half, but assigning other narratives that we can't actually prove with actual numbers or evidence is a faulty basis for determining value. And yes, Posey came back from a horrible injury. That has nothing to do with his current value, it's just a nice story.
Let's look at their numbers side-by-side.
You'll notice Posey is a pretty clear third here, and I'm not just talking about WAR (you'll notice it's called the MVP, not "Best WAR" award). Braun and McCutchen have a clear advantage in hits, home runs, runs, stolen bases, isolated power, slugging, weighted on-base, weighted runs created, baserunning, and yes, WAR. Posey has the edge in.....batting average. Which is the category with the greatest amount of randomness to it. And while runs batted in is a poor stat for evaluating a single player, voters still like it, and Posey is also losing that category to Braun.
"But he's a catcher!", you'll say. Why, yes, he is. He's also played 25 games at first base, which helps him play most every day, but slightly minimizes the value of his offense when he plays there. While WAR isn't the be-all, end-all of player evaluation, Posey is still third behind Braun and McCutchen. And you can't make the argument for Posey due to his position while also making the case for Cabrera (lousy defensive 3B) over Trout (elite CF) in the AL. You either value position or you don't. As a catcher, Posey also has played in less games than any of the other candidates, and while it's a small difference, it still matters. We knock relievers out of Cy Young discussions due to pitching less than starters, and that should also apply here, even if it's ever so slightly a smaller difference.
So what it comes down to is whether or not you think Posey's production as a catcher outweighs the significant gap in the offensive production of the other candidates, Braun and McCutchen in particular. I don't think it does. As far as defense goes, all four guys range from solid to very good, depending on whether you believe the lunacy that is McCutchen's fielding metrics (said metrics seem to have serious trouble with PNC Park). So Posey has no real edge there, either.
Does Posey deserve to be in the conversation? Absolutely, but he's not in the class of Braun or McCutchen (and I'd say it's a coin flip for those two as to who's better), and I might even put him behind Wright. But because he plays for a winner and has no allegations in his past, I have no doubt he'll win it.
In the eyes of this baseball fan, he doesn't quite deserve it.
Don't worry about the math behind this, it checks out. As you can see, Braun has no chance. The issue is Posey has so many things going for him that have nothing to do with real baseball things, it's almost stupid. In fact, it is stupid. We cannot measure how much Posey is "carrying the team on his back" or "came through when his team needed him". He's been great in the second half, but assigning other narratives that we can't actually prove with actual numbers or evidence is a faulty basis for determining value. And yes, Posey came back from a horrible injury. That has nothing to do with his current value, it's just a nice story.
Let's look at their numbers side-by-side.
You'll notice Posey is a pretty clear third here, and I'm not just talking about WAR (you'll notice it's called the MVP, not "Best WAR" award). Braun and McCutchen have a clear advantage in hits, home runs, runs, stolen bases, isolated power, slugging, weighted on-base, weighted runs created, baserunning, and yes, WAR. Posey has the edge in.....batting average. Which is the category with the greatest amount of randomness to it. And while runs batted in is a poor stat for evaluating a single player, voters still like it, and Posey is also losing that category to Braun.
"But he's a catcher!", you'll say. Why, yes, he is. He's also played 25 games at first base, which helps him play most every day, but slightly minimizes the value of his offense when he plays there. While WAR isn't the be-all, end-all of player evaluation, Posey is still third behind Braun and McCutchen. And you can't make the argument for Posey due to his position while also making the case for Cabrera (lousy defensive 3B) over Trout (elite CF) in the AL. You either value position or you don't. As a catcher, Posey also has played in less games than any of the other candidates, and while it's a small difference, it still matters. We knock relievers out of Cy Young discussions due to pitching less than starters, and that should also apply here, even if it's ever so slightly a smaller difference.
So what it comes down to is whether or not you think Posey's production as a catcher outweighs the significant gap in the offensive production of the other candidates, Braun and McCutchen in particular. I don't think it does. As far as defense goes, all four guys range from solid to very good, depending on whether you believe the lunacy that is McCutchen's fielding metrics (said metrics seem to have serious trouble with PNC Park). So Posey has no real edge there, either.
Does Posey deserve to be in the conversation? Absolutely, but he's not in the class of Braun or McCutchen (and I'd say it's a coin flip for those two as to who's better), and I might even put him behind Wright. But because he plays for a winner and has no allegations in his past, I have no doubt he'll win it.
In the eyes of this baseball fan, he doesn't quite deserve it.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Ryan Braun is having an MVP season....and no one cares.
Earlier today while I was listening to the ESPN Baseball Today podcast, host Eric Karabell and part-time sidekick Mark Simon briefly discussed NL MVP candidates. They touched on four big names; Joey Votto, David Wright, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Beltran. All are deserving players, and all play on current contenders. One player they didn't mention, and frankly the elephant in the room of any MVP conversation, is Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun.
Ryan Braun, preparing to give a baseball a new home.
I'm not faulting Karabell or Simon for their omission of Braun (they didn't mention the outstanding Michael Bourn or Carlos Ruiz either), but it brought to light an interesting question; why is no one talking about Ryan Braun?
The first answer is easy. No one quite knows what to do with thesteroid PED allegations. Even if the 50-game suspension was overturned, it was done so on something of a technicality. No one knows what he did or didn't do, and despite his continued production, there are still plenty of doubts out there (sportswriters and MVP voters aren't exactly a forgiving bunch).
The second answer is simply that the Brewers aren't currently contenders. Seven games behind first place in the NL Central standings (six behind in the Wild Card) is hardly insurmountable with half a season to play, but they'd have to leapfrog a load of teams and don't really have the ammunition to make any major moves at the trade deadline. While it's beyond silly that an outstanding player on a middling team doesn't get many MVP votes (Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista should have won the awards last year), it's simply a reality that people want to vote for the best players on the best teams. It's a shame because, well.....Braun is better than most (if not all) of the current MVP candidates.
I'll be clear; Braun really shouldn't have won the award last year. As I alluded to earlier, Kemp should have taken home the hardware, but was basically punished for playing on a mediocre team. Braun was great in 2011; Kemp was just a little bit better. And at the beginning of 2012, it looked like Kemp would be vindicated. A huge start (.355/.444/.719 AVG/OBP/SLG, 12 HR in just 36 games) made Kemp an early favorite, but two DL stints have made him something of an afterthought. Braun, meanwhile, has been a steady force on a very unsteady team (he'll get no sympathy from Kemp), and is having an even better season than he did in 2011.
Currently sporting stellar .304/.388/.602 triple-slash line and fantastic counting numbers (24 HR, 60 RBI, 13 SB), Braun also looks like he's finally becoming a complete player. He'll never be a great defender, and his arm's still pretty iffy, but he's cleaned up his routes to fly balls and has done a better job hitting cutoff men. Per Fangraphs, he's saved the Brewers 1.6 runs with his glove, and while defensive metrics aren't perfect, coupled with the eye test you're seeing an improved defender no matter how you slice it. Braun's also played through three different nagging injuries (Achilles, groin, elbow), avoiding a costly DL stint while still providing excellent overall production.
Then there's the three multi-homer games, including a mind-blowing 3-homer/15-total-base game in San Diego's monstrous Petco Park. While his batting average and OBP are down a little compared to 2011, his power numbers are way up (.292 ISO compared to .265 last year and .255 for his career) along with an improved walk rate. All told, he's been worth 4.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), on pace for an even better figure than the 7.8 WAR he posted last year.
Will it be enough? Probably not. Aside from the all the residual PED noise and playing on a sub-.500 team, he's 6th on the WAR leaderboard behind Wright, Votto, Bourn, Ruiz (also playing on a bad club), and McCutchen. For what it's worth, my money's on Votto, who's a previous winner as well as being awesome and on a contending club. There's plenty of baseball to be played, and injuries or a decline in play could knock any of the aforementioned candidates (including Braun) out of the race. But at this point, I have a hard time seeing Braun getting any more than a handful of runner-up votes,even at his current rate of production. Which is a shame, because he's deserving. For real, this time.
I'm not faulting Karabell or Simon for their omission of Braun (they didn't mention the outstanding Michael Bourn or Carlos Ruiz either), but it brought to light an interesting question; why is no one talking about Ryan Braun?
The first answer is easy. No one quite knows what to do with the
The second answer is simply that the Brewers aren't currently contenders. Seven games behind first place in the NL Central standings (six behind in the Wild Card) is hardly insurmountable with half a season to play, but they'd have to leapfrog a load of teams and don't really have the ammunition to make any major moves at the trade deadline. While it's beyond silly that an outstanding player on a middling team doesn't get many MVP votes (Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista should have won the awards last year), it's simply a reality that people want to vote for the best players on the best teams. It's a shame because, well.....Braun is better than most (if not all) of the current MVP candidates.
I'll be clear; Braun really shouldn't have won the award last year. As I alluded to earlier, Kemp should have taken home the hardware, but was basically punished for playing on a mediocre team. Braun was great in 2011; Kemp was just a little bit better. And at the beginning of 2012, it looked like Kemp would be vindicated. A huge start (.355/.444/.719 AVG/OBP/SLG, 12 HR in just 36 games) made Kemp an early favorite, but two DL stints have made him something of an afterthought. Braun, meanwhile, has been a steady force on a very unsteady team (he'll get no sympathy from Kemp), and is having an even better season than he did in 2011.
Currently sporting stellar .304/.388/.602 triple-slash line and fantastic counting numbers (24 HR, 60 RBI, 13 SB), Braun also looks like he's finally becoming a complete player. He'll never be a great defender, and his arm's still pretty iffy, but he's cleaned up his routes to fly balls and has done a better job hitting cutoff men. Per Fangraphs, he's saved the Brewers 1.6 runs with his glove, and while defensive metrics aren't perfect, coupled with the eye test you're seeing an improved defender no matter how you slice it. Braun's also played through three different nagging injuries (Achilles, groin, elbow), avoiding a costly DL stint while still providing excellent overall production.
Then there's the three multi-homer games, including a mind-blowing 3-homer/15-total-base game in San Diego's monstrous Petco Park. While his batting average and OBP are down a little compared to 2011, his power numbers are way up (.292 ISO compared to .265 last year and .255 for his career) along with an improved walk rate. All told, he's been worth 4.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), on pace for an even better figure than the 7.8 WAR he posted last year.
Will it be enough? Probably not. Aside from the all the residual PED noise and playing on a sub-.500 team, he's 6th on the WAR leaderboard behind Wright, Votto, Bourn, Ruiz (also playing on a bad club), and McCutchen. For what it's worth, my money's on Votto, who's a previous winner as well as being awesome and on a contending club. There's plenty of baseball to be played, and injuries or a decline in play could knock any of the aforementioned candidates (including Braun) out of the race. But at this point, I have a hard time seeing Braun getting any more than a handful of runner-up votes,even at his current rate of production. Which is a shame, because he's deserving. For real, this time.
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