Brewers lose Peralta and game, season dwindling

The Brewers played an odd game yesterday, losing 2-1 to the Reds in what can best be described as a stomach-punch of a game. Until the 9th inning, it was the Carlos Gomez show, as he showed that he can take over a game on both sides of the ball by homering for the Brewers only run, making some outstanding catches in center field, and stealing a base after a single because that's a Carlos Gomez thing. Brewers starting pitcher Wily Peralta was dominant for 5 1/3 innings but left early with what is being called bicep tendinitis, which fortunately for the Brewers is a fairly minor injury but unfortunately is one that will likely keep him from starting again this season (Tyler Thornburg time).

The bullpen successfully bridged the gap to end-of-game reliever John Axford, who blew away Zack Cozart and Joey Votto (!) before serving up a first-pitch tater to Todd Frazier, and then followed that up by giving up a base hit to Jay Bruce and a walk-off triple to Dioner Navarro. Dioner Navarro should not hit triples off of John Axford. An ugly yet fitting end to the game for Axford, who has been better the last couple months but no one will remember that thanks to this game.

To me, the strangest part of this game was the performance of Reds starter Matt Latos. For those unfamiliar with Latos, he's essentially the Reds' version of Yovani Gallardo, a solid #2 starter the Reds gave up too much for who will look unhittable in some games but very hittable in others. Latos usually sits 92-93 mph on his fastball, but in this game was sitting around 90 mph and threw pitch after pitch right over the heart of the plate. Latos had no problem throwing strikes, but left a lot of pitches up and drew only seven swings-and-misses total (just three strikeouts), none on fastballs.

The Brewers responded by hitting a majority said meatballs right to the Reds' fielders with the exception of Gomez, who hit a ball to a place where it's impossible to put a fielder. By looking at the box score, it looks like Latos was fairly dominant, but watching the game it was pretty clear something was off. It means little to the Brewers now but it's something to keep an eye on for the Reds heading into the postseason.

And speaking of the postseason, this loss puts the Brewers four games back with six to play, and while the current 2nd wild card incumbent Cardinals have two tough matchups against the Reds and Nationals, they would have to go 2-4 at best for the Brewers to even tie them, and the Dodgers have moved ahead of the Brewers to boot. The season is likely over, but the team gave it a great run over the last month. There's still plenty to watch for on the Brewers (Aramis chasing the team's doubles record, Braun kicking ass, a likely Thornburg start, quest to finish above .500), even if the season didn't end the way we wanted.


Thanks to Brooksbaseball.net for the PITCH/fx data!

Can the Brewers count on Mark Rogers next year?

Despite a disappointing season, it's not all frowns for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. They've had encouraging performances from many young players, namely Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Carlos Gomez. But even though those players (as well as Nori Aoki) have been pleasant surprises, the guy who had the most to overcome might be former pitching prospect Mark Rogers. A 2004 first-round pick, Rogers has had a whopping four two shoulder surgeries as well as two wrist surgeries since joining the Brewers organization. He was an afterthought coming into the season, and honestly, I thought he was done as a baseball player after the wrist surgeries and subsequent poor minor league performance in 2011. If you had told me that he would secure a major league rotation spot before Tyler Thornburg or Wily Peralta, I would have called you a filthy liar.

But I would have been wrong. Rogers pitch fairly well in AAA Nashville, and earned a promotion to the Brewers' starting rotation following the Zack Greinke trade. While his major league numbers (5.02 ERA) seem just okay after five starts, there's evidence he's been unlucky; that lofty ERA is accompanied by a .316 BABIP, 67.9 LOB %, and an inflated 15.4% HR/FB rate, leading to a 3.79 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. In short, better things may be in store. Of course, that's assuming he stays healthy.

In eight seasons in the organization, this is only the second time he's eclipsed 100 innings pitched (2010 being the other). The team has hinted at shutting him down after a couple more starts, which is not only good for his health but should give the team an opportunity to get a look at Hiram Burgos, Peralta or Thornburg in the major league rotation. It's a double-edged sword; while it keeps his workload in check, if any of the aforementioned youngsters are lights-out in his absence, it could cost him a spot in the majors next year.

Looking at what's currently in the organization, a 2013 rotation could consist of Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and two of the group of Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Chris Narveson, and perhaps Burgos. And that's assuming the team doesn't make a trade or go after a free agent or two, which would further muddy the waters. The team will likely try to contend in 2013, meaning that the likelihood of them going into next season with the above rotation is very unlikely.

It's not all bad for Rogers, however. While he hasn't been very reliable, there's reason to believe he could still push hard for a rotation spot no matter what the team does to supplement the pitching staff. Among his likely competitors, Peralta has struggled greatly with control in the minors, Thornburg might be too small to be a SP and has had trouble with the long ball, and Burgos hasn't proven himself in the majors yet. Estrada would seem to have a leg up on a rotation spot, but has pitched well in the bullpen before and may be a better fit for a relief role than Rogers. While a relief spot may seem good for Rogers in theory, less innings for him may not equate health; he's be pitching less innings, sure, but he'd likely be throwing harder more often. And the team has shown no interest whatsoever in making him a reliever. Not to mention that despite everything that's happened to him, he's still touching 97 mph with his fastball and breaking a wicked slider.

Personally, if I were running the team next year (read: I won't be) I'd give him every opportunity to win a starting rotation spot. While it's small sample size, it's hard to ignore a 31/9 K/BB ratio, which is what he's done in the majors this year. That kind of strikeout ability has a lot of value for a 4th or 5th starter, even if he's only going five or six innings a start. And if he once again can't stay healthy (I doubt he would lose a spot due to performance), the team would have options for replacing him. Can they count on him? Probably not, but because of there backup options, they don't really have to.

News and notes: Rogers awesome, Thornburg demoted, Kyles fired

Rogers shines in debut
Starting pitcher/Zack Greinke replacement Mark Rogers pitched very well on Sunday, keeping the Nationals offense at bay to the tune of two runs in 5 2/3 impressive innings. Rogers was effectively wild, issuing only one walk and getting Nationals batters to chase outside pitches consistently (all seven strikeouts were of the swinging variety). He threw primarily fastball-slider, with a handful of changeups and curveballs mixed in, and  his fastball was still touching 98 mph in the 6th inning. He showed the ability to throw the slider for strikes as well as the willingness to throw it against lefties and when he was behind in the count.

Predictably, the bullpen blew the game in spectacular fashion, as they were unable to hold down leads of 7-3 and 9-7 on the way to losing the game 11-10 in extra innings. Nonetheless, Rogers' performance was encouraging and he'll be an interesting watch for the rest of the season.

Stan Kyles fired
The team announced today that bullpen coach Stan Kyles was jettisoned an what is likely a glorified PR move. It's hard to comment on this story without having any clue how much the bullpen coach actually does, but the bullpen has been horrific in just about every way, with every single reliever having regressed from previous norms (exception being Manny Parra, who is in his first year as a RP). Lee Tunnell, who was the Minor League pitching coordinator, has been announced as the new bullpen coach. Closing quotes from Kyles here. Classy way to go out, but doesn't strike me as the words of a man convinced he did a good job.

Thornburg demoted 
Tyler Thornburg was optioned back to AAA Nashville following Sunday's loss, for the sole purpose of getting back into a rhythm as a starter. Thornburg hadn't made a smooth transition to the bullpen, and suffered some dead arm last week after pitching in back-to-back days. A corresponding move has yet to be announced, though manager Ron Roenicke said a relief pitcher would be called up in Thornburg's place.

The Legend of Tim Dillard gets a Thorn in it's side

The Brewers continue to tweak the roster during the All-Star break, sending down Tim Dillard and replacing him with top prospect Tyler Thornburg. Used as a starter in the minors, Thornburg profiles as a reliever long-term although the team is not against using him as a starter again should the need arise. Thornburg's promotion as well as the arrival of Jeff Bianchi should at least make the Brewers a little more interesting to watch over the next couple weeks.

As for Dillard, I would imagine we'll see him again at some point, assuming he accepts his minor league assignment. I leave you with this video of the Legend doing what he does best. Hopefully Tyler has worked on his impersonations....

First-half grades - pitchers

The Brewers pitching staff has had an odd season. The starting rotation got off to a rough start while the bullpen was passable, and as the season went on the rotation improved while the bullpen fell off of a cliff. The team has basically lived and died by the performance of the pitching staff and I'll be honest, a lot of these guys are tough to grade. Irredisregardless, I'll give it a shot.

Starters

Zack Greinke - 19 starts, 9-3 (W-L), 111 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 WAR
Greinke has really had a great half-season for the Brewers. I don't really know what else to add to that. He had a couple poor starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks where he was basically singled to death, but has otherwise pitched like an ace and is really fun to watch on top of that. He's got a decent shot at the Cy Young award if he keeps this up. Grade: A-

Yovani Gallardo - 18 starts, 7-6, 108.1 IP, 8.89 K/9, 4.15 BB/9, 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
There were a lot of high hopes for Gallardo coming into the season, and some had him pegged as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. Fast-forward to halfway through the season, and Yovani is, well....still Yovani.  And frankly, that's fine. He's still inefficient, still gives up too many home runs, and still gets pounded by the Cardinals, but he's a solid #2 starter and realistically that's what we should expect from him. Many thought he had turned a corner last year by drastically lowering his walk rate, but at this point that seems to have been a mirage. Grade: B-

Shaun Marcum - 13 starts, 5-3, 82.1 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
Marcum was the Brewers' most consistent starter last season, and was well on his way to another solid year when elbow soreness landed him on the DL. Initially slated to return after the All-Star break, Marcum's elbow is still giving him trouble, which is a major concern for a guy who's already had Tommy John surgery once in his career. Grade: B-

Chris Narveson - 2 starts, 1-1, 9 IP, 5.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, -0.1 WAR

Made only two starts (one good, one bad) before a torn rotator cuff injury ended his season. When healthy, he's one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Grade: Incomplete

Randy Wolf - 19 games (18 starts), 2-6, 99.1 IP, 5.89 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 5.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
Wolf has been something of a FIP buster during his time with the Brewers, a guy who puts up a better ERA than his peripheral numbers suggest. But it's all come crashing down this season, and Wolf has been an unmitigated disaster. He's done just about everything poorly, and watching him pitch feels kind of like shoving pencils into my eye sockets. He has an affinity for throwing up and in to righties, but he can't hit that spot for strikes, so he falls behind and then has to throw meatballs just to get into the count. Glancing at his game log, he's had four good starts; three combined against the awful Cubs and Astros, and one against the mediocre Royals. While there's some evidence he's been unlucky (.332 BABIP), he's simply not throwing the quality strikes that he had been the previous two seasons. His starting job is probably safe no matter what, but the Marcum injury assures that he will have no choice but to figure it out in the rotation. Grade: D

Marco Estrada - 14 games (8 starts), 0-3, 51 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 4.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
Estrada has had tremendous value to the Brewers the last two years, bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and pitching reasonably well in both roles. He took over for the injured Narveson early in the season, and has been a pleasant surprise. He's done a great job getting ahead of hitters and mixing his pitches, though he sometimes pays for his zone-pounding ways in the form of home runs. His most memorable performance was his 12 strikeout performance against the Reds, and aside from a brief DL stint has been pretty reliable all season. A nice second half should cement a starting role for him in 2013.
Grade: C+

Michael Fiers - 8 games (7 starts), 3-3, 46.2 IP, 9.64 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Fiers came up and seized a rotation spot by pitching like madman through his first seven starts. His numbers are eerily similar to Estrada's, the difference being Fiers has kept the ball in the park. Like Estrada, he has kind of a "meh" fastball, but his off-speed stuff is pretty great and he's worked the corners of the strike zone better than anyone could have hoped. He's also similar to Estrada in that he's an extreme flyball pitcher who'll spend a lot of time in Miller Park, so some regression is likely coming, but seeing as he doesn't walk anybody I don't foresee him being firebombed often. Fiers is probably a #4 starter long-term, but his performance thus far is impressive and has really saved the Brewers' bacon. Grade: B+

Tyler Thornburg - 1 start, 0-0, 5.1 IP, 3.38 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 8.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Called up for a spot start against Toronto, Thornburg cruised through his big-league debut until the 6th inning, when he served up three consecutive home runs, chasing him from the game. In fairness, the homers were hit by the powerful trio of Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, so it's a bit harsh to judge him from just this start (though he's likely a reliever long-term). We'll probably see Tyler again in September after the All-Star break. Grade: Incomplete

Relievers

Wily Peralta - 1 game, 0-0, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

The consensus top prospect in the Brewers system to start the year, Peralta has struggled with his control in the minors, keeping him from seizing a rotation spot for the big league club. Made one relief appearance during a brief call-up in April, and was immediately sent back down. Peralta seems to have turned his season around in AAA, and will almost certainly be the first guy up if an injury/trade occurs. Grade: Incomplete

Mike McClendon - 4 games, 0-0, 8 IP, 4.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 6.75 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

McClendon has bounced back and forth between the Brewers and the AAA club the last few years, and until this year had pitched reasonably well. But there's a reason why he's never stuck around long, and that reason is that he's not very good. A pure deception guy with a goofy delivery that he changes from pitch to pitch, it can get ugly when a team figures him out. His four appearances this year a largely forgettable. 

Grade: F

Livan Hernandez - 6 games, 1-0, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 6.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, -0.2 WAR

Claimed off of waivers from Atlanta, Livan is fat, old, kinda fun to watch, and just about done as a major leaguer. He's passable as a long reliever (or Jabba the Hut doppelgänger), which is hopefully where he'll stay until someone better is found (Seth McClung?). Grade: D+

Vinnie Chulk - 7 games, 1-0, 9 IP, 10.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 10.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

In and out of the majors since 2003, Chulk was an absolute apocalypse during his brief tenure with the Brewers. Words cannot describe how truly awful he was. Basically a mop-up guy, he was scorched (a remarkable 36.4 line drive % allowed) in all but three appearances, one of them being an important scoreless two-inning outing in an extra-inning win over the Cubs where he was the last man available to pitch. Sadly, that outing was a red herring. Grade: F

Juan Perez - 10 games, 0-1, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 5.14 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Was up for about a month and did typical crappy LOOGY things. Lots of strikeouts and walks, not really good enough to stick. Grade: D-

Tim Dillard - 34 games, 0-2, 37 IP, 7.05 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
Dillard has gained something of a cult following due to his funky sidearm delivery, hat tilt, sideburns, killer Tim Kurkjian impersonation, and that one time he wiggled out of a bases-loaded, one out jam. But the Legend of Tim Dillard is fading; he should only be facing right handed batters due to his ROOGY ways, but as the season's worn on righties have been hitting the ball harder and harder off of him. His numbers aren't awful and he has some uses but with Kameron Loe around, he's kind of redundant. Grade: D

John Axford - 36 games, 2-5 (15 saves), 34.1 IP, 12.84 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 4.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
The struggles of John Axford have been well-documented. The walks and home runs allowed have skyrocketed this season, and that's a deadly combination. There are some signs that he may have been a bit unlucky, but it's still pretty embarrassing that guys like Clint Barmes and Gaby Sanchez are hitting bombs off of him. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but the first half of 2012 was a largely forgettable one for the Ax-man. Grade: C-


Manny Parra - 36 games, 1-3, 39 IP, 9.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

At the beginning of the season, I was excited at the thought of Parra as a reliever. His control issues coupled with an inability to get through a batting order multiple times prevented him from reaching his potential as a starter, but those problems would be minimized in the bullpen. He could just crank it up for an inning or two and not have to worry about batters figuring him out. Unfortunately, Parra's struggles followed him to his relief role. His walks and home runs allowed have gone down along with his ground ball % going up (all good things), but he still falls behind hitters far too often, leading him to groove hittable pitches that batters are smoking for line drives. He has improved against left-handed hitters (he was a reverse platoon split guy coming into this season) and he strung together some nice outings coming into the break, so there's still hope he can be a valuable member of the bullpen in the second half. Grade: C-

Kameron Loe - 37 games, 4-2, 38.2 IP, 6.52 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
Kam does two things well; get ground balls and slay right-handed batters. He hasn't done those things quite as well this season as he has in the past, but he's still a really nice guy to have around. Used heavily the first couple months of the season, he has trouble locating his bowling ball of a sinker when he's tired, which turns those ground balls into line drives. The usage pattern combined with his skill set and his willingness to do the dirty work can lead to wild ERA fluctuations during a season, but when he's right, he's one of the more reliable arms in the bullpen. Grade: C

Jose Veras - 40 games, 3-3, 37 IP, 9.97 K/9, 6.08 BB/9, 4.62 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

WALKS. LOTS OF WALKS. Grade: D+

Francisco Rodriguez - 42 games, 1-4, 38.2 IP, 7.91 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Like Axford, K-Rod hasn't been able to follow up his stellar 2011 campaign. Home runs have been a huge problem, and his ability to generate swings-and-misses has faded. He's also giving up more walks and line drives, and he's not even been all that unlucky; a .318 BABIP allowed, which is above league average but not outrageous. All these things put together reveal a pitcher with eroding skills, and it's been costing the Brewers in close games. Grade: C-