Players capsules: Murphy, Webb, Jakubauskas

The Brewers actually did something today, signing utility infielder Donnie Murphy to a minor-league deal. Since players of his ilk have a tendency to end up on the Brewers major league team at some point, I figured he was worth writing about, in conjunction with a couple other mildly interesting minor deals they've consummated.

Name: Donald "Donnie" Murphy
Birthdate: March 10, 1983 (age 29)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 5'10, 190
Position: 2B, SS, 3B

Looks like: 

Originally a 5th-round pick by the Royals in the 2002 MLB draft, Murphy has done a fair share of bouncing around in his career. He spent 2004-2006 with Kansas City, '07-'08 with the A's, '09 in the Orioles' organization, and most recently was a member of the Florida/Miami Marlins. Offensively, Murphy looks like the stereotypical "quad A" player, someone who hit fine in the minors (.279/.347/.461) but cannot translate it to the majors (.205/.270/.373). He has a bit of power (18 home runs in 640 career MLB at-bats) but strikes out a ton, basically making him a younger version of Cody Ransom, just without the walks.

Like Ransom, his saving grace is his glove and versatility. He can play all the infield positions (aside from 1B), and plays them pretty well. His range isn't spectacular, but he has soft hands and a good arm.

If he were to make the team, his role would be similar to the role Craig Counsell held in past seasons, a defensive replacement type who can occasionally start. If Murphy were to receive substantial playing time, it would either mean he achieved a late-career Justin Ruggiano-type offensive breakout or that something terrible has happened. Let's hope something terrible doesn't happen.

Oh yeah, and his middle name is Rex.


Name: Christopher Jakubauskas
Birthdate: December 22, 1978 (age 33)
Bats/Throws: L/R (?!)
Height/Weight: 6'2, 215
Position: SP/RP
Looks like: 
Chris Jakubauskas has a pretty incredible backstory. He's Lithuanian-American, and was a first baseman at the University of Oklahoma who didn't convert to pitching until after he graduated. Jaku (as I'll now call him to avoid carpal tunnel) pitched in independent league ball for a few years before the Seattle Mariners took notice and signed him to a minor league deal. After toiling in the minors for two years, Jaku finally made the Mariners' opening day roster in 2009. He appeared in 35 games that season split between starting and relief and even tossed a complete game, albeit in a loss. He would spend 2010 in the Pirates' organization, 2011 with the Orioles, and 2012 split between the Blue Jays' and Diamondbacks' minor league systems. Jaku sustained a scary head injury with pitching with the Pirates, taking a Lance Berkman line drive off his head during a start against the Houston Astros that left him with a concussion. Sadly, that's probably his most significant major league moment.

As far as stuff, Jaku throws four pitches; a fastball that sits 88-92, a curveball in the mid-70s, and will occasionally use a low-80s changeup and a high-80s cutter. His curve is probably his best pitch, but I use the word "best" liberally. He tends to pitch to contact, and while his groundball rate isn't shabby, he has a pretty serious homer problem (career 1.41 HR/9). His career .307/.375/.531 line against lefties is fairly problematic as well.

Considering the team's depth at starting pitching, it's hard to see Jakubauskas making any real impact on the Brewers next year. If things work out just right for him, he could carve out a role as a long man, but it's more likely he's just an arm for AAA.


Name: Travis Webb
Birthdate: August 2, 1984
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6'4, 205
Position: SP/RP
Looks like:
A former 8th-round pick in the 2006 draft, Webb spent seven years in the Reds' minor league system, making 95 starts among 172 appearances. He was used primarily as a reliever the last two seasons, which is probably his role long-term.

He uses four pitches; a fastball that sits 86-90 and has a little cut to it, a slider that sits around 80, a changeup in the high 70s, and a seldom used curveball in the low 70s. His arm angle and rough walk numbers (career 4.7 BB/9) will keep him in the relief role, and his arm angle will likely limit him to a lefty-specialist role. Aside from his shaky control, he's a flyball pitcher who has experienced some home run issues in the past. Since he's transitioned to the bullpen, however, his strikeout rate has spiked (10.9 K/9 in 2011-12) and he boasts a 2.72 FIP against lefties.

Even if the Brewers add a couple more relief arms in free agency, Webb probably has a shot at making the team as a lefty specialist if he can tighten up his control a little. The team hasn't had a decent lefty since Mitch Stetter's last good year in 2009, and Webb could end that string of futility. If nothing else, he can at least provide minor league depth and give the team an option should a need arise.

The bullpen problem

It's not a news flash that the Milwaukee Brewers possessed a pretty terrible bullpen in 2012, and the performance of the relief pitching was probably the biggest reason the Brewers missed the postseason. I'm not going to focus on the numbers, because they're bad. Pretty much every Brewers reliever had their worst season. Understandably, Doug Melvin has already started a massive overhaul, parting ways with Kameron Loe, Jose Veras, and Manny Parra. Set-up man Francisco Rodriguez is a free agent and is unlikely to return under any circumstance. Burke Badenhop was acquired in a trade, and Melvin has already added five other relievers on minor-league deals. Next up is lefty relievers. That all sounds reasonable, right?

Sort of. The minor league deals are all fine moves, and Melvin has a history of finding treasure among other people's trash (John Axford, Marco Estrada, Jim Henderson, and Jeff Bianchi to name a few). Pursuing a lefty makes tons of sense, the team has had to make do without a decent one for a couple of years now. Parra needed to go. But the rest of the moves are murky at best.

Veras has an annoying skill set and is often difficult to watch, but pitched much better in the second half and has been a decent reliever throughout his career. He may not have been worth what he would have been paid, but his strikeout ability is nice to have around. The Loe and Badenhop moves are far more puzzling. Loe might cause Brewers fans to roll their eyes, but he was a perfectly fine middle reliever for most of his time in Milwaukee. Injuries and a lack of better options briefly forced Loe into a setup role in 2011, a role he is not designed for and some blown saves soured fans' opinion of him. A plethora of short outings by the starting rotation led to him being overworked early in 2012, and he never seemed to recover. The team decided to try to do better....by trading for his twin in Burke Badenhop. While Badenhop had a better 2012 (and is a little cheaper), his performance in prior seasons suggest that he's no better than Loe overall. Basically, they're buying Badenhop's career year combined with Loe's worst year over the larger sample of their respective careers.

This is where an interesting problem arises; we watched Loe and Veras fail repeatedly last year, which makes us want to be done with them even though we'd look at them as good buy-low candidates if the pitched somewhere else in 2012 (to give another example, when Dan Haren was cut loose by the Angels, every other team's fanbase looked at him as a great bounced-back option, while Angels fans viewed him as an aging starting pitcher with back problems and velocity issues). The recency effect also helps is forget how good guys like Loe and Axford (now viewed as a shaky and unreliable closer) were previously. This also shows us the volatility of relief pitchers; 60 innings is a small sample size for any pitcher, yet for a reliever that's an entire season, and a slump or random bad luck is all it takes to taint the perception of said reliever. Paying these guys lots of money is an enormous risk, and dismissing them because of one bad year is also a risk.

So with all of this in mind, what's the correct way to rebuild a bullpen? The old-school approach suggests finding seasoned veterans (including a "proven closer"), an approach that worked pretty well for teams like the Orioles, Rangers, and Yankees in 2012, but on the other hand failed horribly for the Mets, Red Sox, and Marlins. The new school approach is to go cheap, buying low-cost veterans and trusting unproven youngsters. Worked great for the Rays, A's, and Nationals, not so much for the Cubs, Rockies, and Astros. This leaves us at something of an impasse; putting faith in Brandon Kintzler and Tyler Thornburg sounds cool, but could backfire just as easily as signing Sean Burnett and Jason Grilli to hefty deals.

The best solution to this problem is simple, but not easy; depth. It's what the good teams have and the bad teams don't. Bullpen depth is something the team did not have last year, having to bring up guys like Vinnie Chulk, Juan Perez, and Mike McClendon when injuries and ineptness happened, and unsurprisingly it led to more ineptness. In a vacuum, there was nothing wrong with the relief core that broke camp this last season, and there was no way anyone could have predicted that every pitcher would have a terrible year. But that's no excuse for having someone like Chulk as next best option in AAA. Whether it's through trades, free agency, or continued development of the youngsters, Melvin's primary concern should not just be quality, but quantity as well.

News and notes; awards awarded, players acquired, rumors, and new contributors

Happy holidays, everyone. It's that magical time of year when fake Cesar Izturis twitter accounts are created and signings like Johnny Gomes are big news. Hopefully you have something like football or basketball to keep you entertained and don't have to sit at your computer and refresh mlbtraderumors.com every few seconds.

New faces
It's my pleasure to announce a pair additions to the Book of Gorman staff, Tom Stadler and Corey Heim. They will be assisting me in making this site much more awesome and less like it sucks so bad. Tom is a UW alum, bacon lover, all-around cool cat, and also a master of karate and friendship for everyone. His first post  for TBOG is here (spoiler: it kicks ass) and his previous work can be found here (also kicks ass). Corey is very passionate and intelligent, and one HELL of a model American. I highly recommend his personal blog and I'm excited for his contributions in the future.

Awards happened
I truly care about the awards handed out at the end of the Major League Baseball season, which is unfortunate because it makes me a crazy person. I won't get into stuff like snubs (BRENDAN RYAN) or injustice (MIKE TROUT), but I will mention that our boy Ryan Braun finished second in NL MVP voting to Buster Posey. While the gap in voting isn't reflective on how close the two players were in actual value, it's still somewhat encouraging as far as the voting process is concerned that Braun was on every ballot and got a few first place votes (if only the AL MVP were as rational). I've been trumpeting Braun as the MVP all season, and while I still believe him to be the most valuable, Posey had a great season of his own and is very deserving (even if he didn't carpet bomb the likes of Petco Park and Target Field with homers like Braun did). Aramis Ramirez finished 9th in the voting, which is cool.

Some guys were signed
The Brewers made some minor moves, signing catcher Blake Lalli and pitchers Zach Kroenke and Frankie De La Cruz to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training. De La Cruz pitched briefly for the Brewers in 2011, and pitched reasonably well at that. Kroenke is a former Yankees and Diamondbacks farmhand that also has a smidge of major league experience and a last name that sounds like something the Crocodile Hunter would yell in a moment of excitement. Lalli is a run-of-the-mill depth guy who had 16 plate appearances with the Cubs last season and not much else. He isn't Will Nieves, so there's that.

Dumb rumors
The Josh Hamilton rumors involving the Brewers just won't die, which is unfortunate because they should die. Aside from the facts that Hamilton is expensive, doesn't fill a need, and is a huge injury/off-field risk, all of the "interest" the Brewers have supposedly shown is nothing but pure speculation on the part of bored baseball writers trying to make a connection because Hamilton and Brewers hitting coach Jerry Narron are buds. Nevermind that the team already has a top offense, is trying to ease back on the payroll, and has needs on the pitching staff. Unless Narron feels like donating a few hundred million to the cause, Josh Hamilton will not be a Brewer.

Player Capsules - Michael Olmsted

I've stirred from my offseason laziness/procrastination to cover the Brewers' acquisitions so far, partially out of boredom and partially out of guilt for being a lazy procrastinating blogger. All three of the team's claims are interesting, and all for different reasons. Arcenio Leon is notable for having a cool name, Jairo Asencio is notable because I've heard of him, and Michael Olmsted is notable because he is a large human and he might actually have some talent. I'll start by looking at Olmsted, as he is the most intriguing pickup. The Brewers signed him as a minor league free agent, and instantly added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft and making it likely that we'll see him at some point in 2013.

Name: Michael Olmsted
Birthdate: May 2, 1987 (age 25)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6-6, 245
Position: RP
Looks like:

Drafted by the Mets in the 9th round of the 2007 draft out of Cypress College in California, Michael Olmsted began his minor league career as a starting pitcher in the Mets system before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008. Prior to the surgery, Olmsted put up some nice numbers in '07 and '08 but never pitched above Class A. The Mets cut ties with him during 2009 and he spent 2010 pitching briefly in Japan (for Kam Loe's old team, coincidentally) and in independent ball before signing with the Red Sox in 2011.

Olmsted was outstanding while pitching in the Sox's system, making a combined 68 appearances (all in relief) in 2011 and 2012 while sporting a 1.47 ERA with 140 strikeouts (!) in 91.2 innings. In addition to the ridiculous number of whiffs, he kept butts off the bases to the tune of a 0.86 WHIP with a solid 2.45 BB/9. Only 14 of Olmsted's appearances were above Class A, but his AA numbers were still impressive, allowing just 18 baserunners in 20 innings while punching out 31.

As far as his stuff, Olmsted features a fastball that varies anywhere from 90-97 with a tight slider that he controls really well. The fastball velocity is easy due to his large frame and he can get good plane due to his height, but has trouble keeping velocity from game to game and sometimes the pitch doesn't have a whole lot of life. The slider is lethal and can be used to hitters from both sides of the plate, and his lack of significant platoon splits is a testament to how well he uses both pitches.


Considering Boston's bullpen woes and that Olmsted projects as a major-league reliever, it's surprising he never got a chance above AA, or a spot on their 40-man roster to prevent him from reaching free agency. This has all the makings of another one of Doug Melvin's sneaky pickups, something he seems to have a real knack for. If Olmsted has a strong camp and/or good start to the minor league season, he could be a significant factor in the Brewers' bullpen next season and beyond.

Do not sign Kyle Lohse

It's not secret that the Brewers will be in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason. There are plenty of candidates, and plenty of good ones at that. But there's plenty of time to write about who they should pursue, and right now I'd rather write about who they shouldn't. One name comes to mind immediately, in part because he's the kind of pitcher the Brewers have targeted before. A pitcher who's coming off a career year, eats innings, is fairly low-risk, and is due for a big payday. Due to the title of this article, you already know who that is. But let's look at some blind résumés  for a second.

There's a lot of noise there, but none of those pitchers have career numbers worthy of a hefty free agent deal.  At best they're #4 starters. In order, those pitchers are Kyle Lohse, Randy Wolf, Braden Looper,......and Jeff Suppan. I specifically picked mediocre pitchers the Brewers signed to drive home the point. Kyle Lohse has not been a very good pitcher in his career, and the Brewers have a tendency to overpay for mediocre starters coming off of career years (Suppan didn't have a career year per se, but was coming off of a tremendous playoff performance). And Lohse is indeed coming off a career year, achieving career bests in innings and ERA as well as putting up tremendous BB/9 numbers. 

                                                                                             Not pictured: consistency

Obviously it's not entirely fair to judge a pitcher solely on his career numbers. It's certainly possible that Lohse "turned a corner", or "reinvented himself", or "learned how to pitch", or whatever platitude you choose. But while I'm willing to say Lohse is a better pitcher than his days in Minnesota, there's a more rational explanation to his career turnaround in St. Louis. That explanation being that he pitches in St. Louis. 

Lohse has spent the last five seasons pitching in St. Louis, three of those seasons easily being the best of his career, and one of those seasons struggling with injury. Lohse is a flyball pitcher, and Busch Stadium is very accommodating to pitchers of his ilk. Busch is a moderate pitcher's park according to park factors, but is even more kind as far as suppressing home runs. It's no surprise then that Lohse has put up career low HR/9 numbers while his flyball and line drive rates have stayed fairly static. It's also no surprise that he has had noticeable home/road splits in four of his five seasons in St. Louis. 

                                                                       Not pictured: enough facial hair

  

It's a nice narrative to say that Lohse has been revitalized by the magic of former Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. But such reasoning falls apart under closer scrutiny, and it also doesn't explain why former Cardinals pitchers have turned into pumpkins upon leaving St. Louis. The more logical explanation is that Duncan simply encouraged his projects to throw strikes and let the ballpark and defense do the rest. It's much easier to pound the strike zone when you know flyballs are for the most part staying in the stadium, and that strategy works in parks like Busch. 

This isn't to say that Lohse is a bad pitcher, or that he doesn't do good things, or even that he won't have success elsewhere. But he does have a specific skill set that works when he's pitching at least half his games in a friendly stadium. It doesn't take a genius to note that he will not be pitching in a favorable stadium if he signs in Milwaukee. He'd be going from one of the better home run parks (from a pitcher's perspective) to the worst. There's a reason why Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum had problems pitching in Miller Park; it's a shitty park for flyball pitchers. And it's even worse for someone like Lohse who throws a lot of strikes but doesn't strike hitters out. There will be plenty of pitchers who will be available, and of the guys GM Doug Melvin is likely to pursue, Lohse might be the worst possible fit, especially if he's looking for a potential #2 starter.

So Doug, do not sign Kyle Lohse.

What would the Brewers have to do to contend in 2013?

Ever since Mark Attanasio took over the Brewers franchise, it's been pretty clear that the team wants to compete every year. Although the team has only made two playoff runs (with one other close call in 2007) since Attanasio purchased the team in 2004, they've kept themselves out of the cellar of the division and maintained relevancy in the NL. And while this season has been a tremendous disappointment, there's no evidence that the team is interested in a rebuilding phase. While it seems smart that the team should use the 2013 season as a mini-rebuild and a litmus test for players such as Mark Rogers, Jean Segura, Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Logan Schafer, etc., there are a few problems with this scenario. I'll leave my personal views out of this for a minute and just look at this objectively.

Other than a possible hit in attendance due to a less-competitive roster, 2013 is the last year the team will possess slugger Corey Hart. Although a contract extension is possible, Hart is setting himself up for a big payday and will likely price himself out of Milwaukee. While first basemen aren't all that difficult to find, veterans tend to be expensive and the internal options of Matt Gamel and Hunter Morris are weak at best. Rickie Weeks and Aramis Ramirez will both be on the downside of their careers in 2014, and there aren't any impact bats in the minors to fill any holes that might arise. 2013 is also the last year the team controls CF Carlos Gomez, and no matter what you think of Logan Schafer, he's probably a downgrade. Another issue is that the team might decide to save up for 2014 but "accidentally" compete in 2013. Coming into this year, no one expected the White Sox, Orioles, and A's to compete, but here we are in August and they're all in the thick of it. The extra wild card opens up a lot of possibilities, and making the playoffs should not be cast aside; flags do fly forever. And finally, if the team were to consider adding a much-needed starting pitcher, this is the offseason to do it.

While the idea of free agent starting pitchers tend to make Brewers fans shudder, there are a lot of good pitchers out on the market (I've included guys who will almost certainly have options declined). There are the decent, young-ish options with upside (Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy) as well as buy-low guys (Roberto Hernandez, Ervin Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Jonathan Sanchez), coming-off-injury bargains (Jorge De La Rosa, Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, Chris Young, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker), and steady, reliable veterans (Joe Blanton, Bartolo Colon, Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis, Brett Myers, Joe Saunders). And then there's possible trade candidates and guys who could have their options declined (Gavin Floyd, Dan Haren, James Shields, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, Jake Westbrook). It's also within the realm of possibility that the team brings back Shaun Marcum, and they've made it clear that they will try to go after Zack Greinke when he hits the market.

                                        Bonus: Brandon McCarthy comes with a supermodel wife.

Although the team's offense will probably be just fine going into next year, a starting rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Estrada, Peralta, and Rogers/Chris Narveson/Tyler Thornburg isn't destined for glory. Considering the injury histories of Narveson and Rogers (and Marcum for that matter), possible regression of Estrada and Fiers, and the unknown of Peralta and Thornburg, the team will have to go after a couple of pitchers pretty much no matter what they decide to do. It comes down to whether they bring in veterans on minor-league deals for depth or bring in someone who can help them long-term. And as for the bullpen, even if the current staff doesn't rebound (which I think they will), options abound in free agency as well as the guys who would likely be pushed to relief roles if the team does bring in free agent starters.

Basically, the team's 2013 fortunes revolve around what the do with the pitching. And given management's history, it's likely they will be players in the free agent market in some capacity. But what SHOULD they do? Both competing next year and building for the future have their pros and cons. But those things aren't mutually exclusive; as long as they don't part with prospects to acquire help for next year, the future can still be bright. And if they sign someone like Edwin Jackson to a reasonable multi-year deal, they'll obviously be around for potential playoff pushes in 2014 and beyond. While there aren't any blue-chip prospects in the minors, thanks to recent drafts and the Zack Greinke trade, the depth is better than it's been in years; we're not going to end up like the Astros or Cubs. Whether they push for next year or focus on the future, I'm okay with it. And there's nothing to say it can't be both.