Welcome to the Ump Show!

I was ready to write a completely different post today, but that will have to wait. Instead, I’d like to discuss the officiating we just witnessed this series. A bit asinine to be complaining about umpires after your team just won 2 of 3 on the road, but sometimes you can’t avoid the elephant in the room.

And boy, did we have a doozy of a crew on our hands these past three days. Gary Darling and company were well on display from game, starting with refusing to review a foul ball hit off the pole here:

Notice anything different about this photo? Let's have a closer look:

The left side of the Western Metal Supply building doesn't have an off color yellow stripe, does it? That's because this photo was taken in 2008. That means that the Padres decided they needed to paint a pointless stripe on the foul side of the building AFTER home run replay was instilled.

Even still, the flat out refusal by the home plate umpire to use a tool developed to make his job easier  was borderline juvenile.

Then the next night, Darling blows a strike call behind the plate, then appeals down to his third base umpire who also misses call. Oh, and then Roenicke gets ejected for arguing without stepping a foot out of the dugout.

Yes, the third base umpire thought he held up here.

And finally in game 3, the boys in black added a cherry on top by squashing the Brewers rally with this whopper:

I do get unnerved now and again by officiating, and there are times when I’m wrong. I’ll openly admit that. But this time? I think I speak for both the Brewers and Padres fan bases when I say that the all around umpiring was nothing short of abysmal.

Behold the strike zone from last night for Marco Estrada:

The right corner of the plate was closed for construction, apparently.

I understand each umpire dictates a ball and a strike in their own way, but good lord, Estrada couldn’t get the right side of the plate if he tried. It’s a minor argument that happens almost every game, but it's still ridiculous how badly the zone can fluctuate to this degree. And all of this doesn't even include the calls at first base, where any Padre or Brewers who wasn't clearly safe stood no chance of being called so. And actually, it was the Padres who got more of the raw end on these calls.

Look, I’ve never umpired in my life. I imagine it’s a bit of a stressful job, and it’s a national pastime to give grief to the guys who actually do it. But man, there’s making questionable calls, and straight up refusing do your job correctly. We unfortunately had to witness the latter the past few days.

Brewers/Cardinals series review - Well at least the bullpen was better

Results:

Friday, 4/12 Cardinals 2, Brewers 0

Saturday, 4/13 Cardinals 8, Brewers 0

Sunday, 4/14 Brewers 4, Cardinals 3

Win Probability Added stars (WPA explanation here)

April 14th, Yuniesky Betancourt doubled to right, Carlos Gomez scores (+.401 WPA)

April 14th, Jonathan Lucroy homered to left (+.385 WPA

April 14th, Carlos Beltran grounded out to shortstop (Burke Badenhop pitching) (-.166 WPA)

As you can see, all of the big plays for the Brewers happened on Sunday. That's because that's the only game they scored runs. If math is to be believed, it also bears reasoning that Sunday's game is the only game they won. The Cards clearly outplayed them in every facet during the weekend, with one lone exception; bullpen. That seems odd, but the Cardinals bullpen actually has a higher ERA than the Brewers bullpen. Most of that is thanks to Cards "closer" Mitchell Boggs, who was shaky on Friday and awful on Sunday. The Brewers relievers, on the other hand, pitched 7 2/3 innings and giving up two runs (zero earned), keeping them in two of the games. 

Friday's game was a pitching duel between Kyle Lohse and Shelby Miller, with Shelby Miller coming out on top as the Brewers' bats failing to show up. Saturday was more of the same, except Yovani Gallardo pitched poorly (as he does against St. Louis) while his counterpart Adam Wainwright threw a brilliant 4-hit shutout with a whopping 12 strikeouts. Both Miller and Wainwright were terrific, but for their part the Brewers' bats swung at too many bad pitches. No offense in baseball was getting to Wainwright on Saturday, but Miller threw a lot of pitches over the plate and the offense couldn't capitalize.

Sunday seemed like a variation on the theme, as the offense couldn't muster anything against Jamie Garcia's soft pitches (his fastball dipped as low as 84 mph during the 5th inning) and Brewers starter Marco Estrada couldn't keep the Cards' bats off the board. The offense finally woke up in the 8th against flamethrowing reliever Trevor Rosenthal, when Ryan Braun hit a two-run oppo-taco to score the first Brewers runs of the series. They added a run in the 9th to tie, and probably should have had more were it not for a series of poor management decisions that led to a popped-up bunt and a baserunning blunder. Lucroy's tater in the 10th gave them the lead, and the combo of Brandon Kintzler, Mike Gonzalez, and Burke Badenhop got through the bottom of the 10th with a big assist to the defensive shift that Carlos Beltran grounded into for the final out. 

All told, it was a pretty poor series for the Crew despite Sunday's win. The offense as a whole was pretty awful despite some solid pitching performances. The Cardinals are obviously a very good team and beating them at home is not easy, but even with how good St. Louis' pitching was it's hard to excuse how bad the offense played. But the bullpen pitching better was a good sign, and both Lohse and Estrada performances were impressive against a tough Cardinals offense. All told, there wasn't anything to be learned from this series besides the Brewers missing Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez a whole lot. That and the Cards are better at playing baseball.

MVP: Jonathan Lucroy

I almost gave this to Lohse, who threw an excellent game on Friday, but after some further research I had to go with Luc. Aside from his game-winning homer and an excellent tag to nail a runner at the plate, his pitch-framing was unbelievable. Just look at some of these called strikes (click to embiggen).

Obviously not all of it is Lucroy's framing, what with umpires being human and all, but the Brewers lead baseball in extra called strikes and we already know Lucroy is a pitch-framing wizard. Even with only one noteworthy game at the plate in the series, Lucroy's impact behind the plate was evident in every game.

LVP: Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo pitched poorly for the third start in a row. If he's trying to pitch to contact to be more efficient, it's not working. His fastball isn't moving enough at this point to get away with throwing it in the meaty part of the zone. He's still racking up high pitch counts and isn't getting enough whiffs. On the positive side, he's not had a big problem with walks and there's almost certainly some bad luck with balls in play, but he needs to pitch better. He had a tough task in facing a potent lineup on Saturday, but threw too many pitches over the plate and eventually it cost him. Three starts is a very small sample, so there's still plenty of time to turn it around.

Play of the Series: 

Luc's homer won Sunday's game, but it wouldn't have happened if it weren't for Braun's two-run shot. Extra points for going opposite field off a tough reliever. 

What's Next:

The Brewers begin a six-game homestand against the Giants and Cubs on Tuesday. San Francisco comes into town first, and are off to a good start. Milwaukee is fortunate to avoid Giants starter Madison Bumgarner, but there are some interesting pitching matchups nonetheless. Hey, we get to face Barry Zito! 

4/16 - Peralta vs. Zito

4/17 - Fiers vs. Vogelsong

4/18 - Lohse vs. Cain

Brewers/Diamondbacks series review - Everything is broken

The Brewers were lucky to get out of the Arizona series alive, and by that I mean they got swept and three of their best hitters got hurt but at least the bus to Chicago didn't crash. The series went about as bad as it possibly could, although I suppose the D-Backs winning every game 20-0 would have been worse. The pitching continued to struggle, with Mike Fiers and Yovani Gallardo getting knocked around in their starts and the bullpen giving up at least two runs in every game. Gallardo looked a little better than he did on opening day and was the victim of some bad outfield defense, but Fiers was blasted from the start and couldn't draw swings-and-misses. Kyle Lohse had a terrific debut on Friday night, but got little support from his offense and bullpen.

Much of the talk around the series thus far has centered around the failings of the 13-man pitching staff (which led to Kyle Lohse pinch-hitting with the game on the line in Sunday's game), but injuries have taken their toll on the team. Ryan Braun injured his neck prior to Friday's game and sat out the whole series, Aramis Ramirez ended up on the DL with a strained knee, and young shortstop Jean Segura had to leave Sunday's game with a bruised left thigh he sustained from a take-out slide by Gerardo Parra. Segura and Braun are only day-to-day at this point, but with an already short bench it's probably not the last time a pitcher will be forced to pinch-hit at some point.

John Axford blew up again in Sunday's game, escaping the 10th inning despite some loud outs and finally caving in the 11th by giving up a double to a crappy hitter in Cliff Pennington followed by a two-run shot by another crappy hitter in Eric Hinske. Manager Ron Roenicke claims Axford is still his closer, which is pretty incredible, but it's hard to imagine his leash being much longer after giving up four home runs in just 2 2/3 innings.

Awards time.

MVP: Jean Segura

I had a hard time picking between Segura, Lohse, and Nori Aoki, but I ultimately went with Segura despite him being knocked out of Sunday's loss. He hit his first career dinger on Friday, a big shot to straightaway center that ended up being the team's only run. He followed that up with another big game at the plate on Saturday, including a run-scoring double. All told, he went 4-for-9 in the series with a walk, and played fine defensively for the most part.

LVP: Burke Badenhop

Badenhop wins this prestigious award by contributing significantly to two losses. He was charged with two runs on Friday in 1/3 of an inning by giving up a walk and a hit, and while Michael Gonzalez (and Jonathan Lucroy, I guess) allowed those inherited runners to score, Badenhop's job is to get outs and the one out he did get was courtesy of a sacrifice bunt. Burke then followed that up on Sunday by allowing a base hit and a homer in the span of three pitches, putting the Brewers behind by two runs in a game they would lose by one. A pretty forgettable series for the sinkerballer who's ball is not sinking very well.

Play of the Series: It basically came down to Segura's homer and Logan Schafer's sweet throw on Sunday, but I'm going with Segura because first career taters are pretty sweet and Jean's reaction while rounding the bases was priceless. While it was obviously more than one play, Kyle Lohse striking out five straight to start Friday's game was a cool moment as well.

What's Next: The Brewers hit the road for their first trip outside of Miller Park this year. They are fortunate to not have to face Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija in any of the three upcoming games, but with how banged up the lineup is it's difficult to say the Brewers have any kind of edge, even if the pitching comes around. It's too early to declare anything a must-win game or series, but the team needs to take advantage of weak opponents and getting at least a couple wins against the Cubbies would be nice.

Position By Position - Shortstop

What do you get when you cross a piano with a hippopotamus?


...I don't know, but it's probably easier to think about the Brewers shortstop situation.

Jean Segura
 

 
Okay, so maybe that was a bit of an over-dramatic opening. Shortstop isn't THAT complicated for this team. But, it certainly gets a little murky on the depth chart after this guy.

My first exposure to Segura was through the twitter account of one Adam Foster (@AdamWFoster), a currently inactive writer for Project Prospect. For a period of time, it seemed like Foster would get one question a day from Angels fans on the transition of Segura to shortstop, to which he would respond that many early reports were positive.

"Built a little like Rickie Weeks, Segura is a high-energy talent with swagger, an aggressive approach at the plate and surprisingly smooth defensive actions given his build. He has quick feet and a quick exchange."

Foster wrote that in November of 2011, before Segura made the full transition to shortstop. But even then, he believed Segura could be average defensively at the position.

And really, that's all he needs to be with the Brewers. The offensive promise he brings is good enough to make up for any setbacks defensively, especially if he can make a few plays like this from time to time.

 

 

The Brewers will certainly be hoping to see a bit of that offense come to fruition this season after a rather ho-hum debut last year. As it was, he already appeared to be getting more comfortable down the stretch by posting a .785 OPS in September/October, which was worlds better than the putrid .489 he recorded in August. He's still a rookie, too. Let's not forget that even demi-god Mike Trout had a .296 wOBA after his first 40 games in 2011.

Given time, Segura could provide a nice burst to the top of the lineup with his above-average speed, good contact ability and surprising power. He probably won't ever be a 20-home run hitter the way J.J. Hardy was, but I don't think it's out of line to expect a few double-digit homer seasons from him during his time with Milwaukee. That might be asking a lot this year, but maybe one day soon.

I thought about doing a profile of Yuniesky Betancourt, but the mere idea of it made me want to go  cry alone in a corner while shoveling down a box of chocolate chip cookies.


So I did it anyway.

Yuniesky Betancourt
 

 
There isn't too much to say about ol' Yuni that we don't already know. He's an awful shortstop, and a pretty bad hitter to boot (he posted a 73 wRC+ in over 200 games from 2011-12). But alas, as things stand right now with Alex Gonzalez manning first base, he's likely to see a little time spelling the Brewers young starting shortstop.

I don't know if there's anyone who rightfully draws the fury of fans with their poor play more than Betancourt. I'm still in awe he started as many games at shortstop as he did 2011 (152!!!). He had his moments, sure, but I'm not about to .gif that behind-the-back flip you'll be seeing 80 times next month on FS-Wisconsin. No, instead I've decided I'm going to show you this one to inspire everyone out there to pray like hell nothing happens to any of the current infielders on this team.

But hey, it's not all doom and gloom with Yuni. After all, he did hit .299 one month...right?


...RIGHT?!?

The Other Guys:

Alex Gonzalez
Jeff Bianchi
Josh Prince

Eventually, Gonzalez will be expected to reclaim his main utility infielder role once Hart returns from the DL, and it's reasonable to expect him to see most of the reps at shortstop then whenever Segura needs an off day. Gonzalez was a great shortstop for a long time, and is probably still just above average today. Heck, even after knee surgery, he may still be better than Segura there. He's an ideal backup candidate, bringing good pop and solid glove off the bench whenever he's needed. Bianchi and Prince may see time eventually, with Bianchi likely a better candidate than Prince at this point. Bianchi has hit well in the minors, but hasn't shown much yet at the major league level.

It's hard to say who will play where all year, especially once Hart returns from the DL. The hope has to be that Segura plays well enough to not need much time off early on, and that when he finally does, Gonzalez is back in the role the team signed him to play.

Brewers bring back Betancourt

Tuesday was a dark day for Brewers fans. Actually, it's been a dark couple of days, depending on whether you strongly hate or just hate the Kyle Lohse signing. The Brewers brought back a familiar face in Yuniesky Betancourt (pronounced Un-tal-en-ted Sh-it-bag), who'll serve as a utility infielder with Taylor Green hitting the DL with a hip issue and Jeff Bianchi having his own hip problems (those geezers). Yuni just opted out of a minor league deal with the Phillies, a team that employs Ryan Howard, Michael Young, Delmon Young, Chad Durbin, Kevin Frandsen and Michael Martinez, yet found Yuni just too shitty to commit to for the 2013 season. If traditional stats are your thing, you'll note that Betancourt has been a flaming train wreck of a player throughout his career. If advanced stats are your thing, you'll note that Betancourt's career is a nuclear disaster on top of a flaming train wreck that also happens to have killed a litter of kittens.

Betancourt "served" as the team's "shortstop" during their 2011 playoff run, and spent 2012 as a part-time statue for a dominant Kansas City Royals squad. Hopefully, Betancourt will see minimal at-bats and be the the sacrificial lamb when Green and/or Corey Hart return from injury, but maybe the baseball gods hate us and he'll see 400 at-bats somehow. But let's leave on a happy note. Here's a Yuni highlight!

Brewers sign Kyle Lohse; a novella

Doug Melvin is on a train. He doesn't yet know he's on a train, because he's asleep. The train shudders on the track and Melvin awakens. He's confused. "Why am I on a train?", he mutters to himself. His head aches and throbs, as if he is hung over. He looks out the window and sees desert. Sparse vegetation and a couple rock formations. It reminds him of the cover of "The Joshua Tree". "That was a great album", he thinks, the song "Bullet the Blue Sky" now stuck in his head. Bono's imaginary voice soothes the piercing pain in his head.

Then his brain snaps back into focus. He still doesn't know what he's doing on a train, or where he's going. He reaches for his phone, hoping for some clarity. Unfortunately, he isn't getting any reception. But his Blackberry reminds him that his text messages are full, which seems odd. He begins opening the messages one-by-one, and his look of confusion gives way to a look of horror. Fellow front-office personnel, baseball writers, and friends have flooded his inbox. Most say some variation of  "Lohse, huh?" or "Well, someone had to do it!" A few seem positive, such as "Not a bad get!" or "You got a discount!", but even more say "I don't know man" or "Seems like a hefty price". Then there's the messages from his wife Ellen, a seemingly endless stream of variations of "Where are you?!"

He begins to piece things together. He remembers going out to dinner the previous evening with his boss, Mark Attanasio. He remembers the waiter being somewhat incompetent, forgetting things and going long periods without checking on their table. Mark seemed really chatty, and a little nervous. He remembers drinking wine. A lot of wine. And then...nothing. He woke up on a train heading to God knows where, and a phone full of ominous text messages regarding a pitcher he had little interest in.

"Did I make a deal with Lohse while drunk last night?" he thinks to himself. No, there's no way. Melvin wanted no part of Lohse, especially surrendering a draft pick to do so. Lohse was a decent enough pitcher, but Melvin was set on going with the younger guys. This all had to be an elaborate prank. Melvin chuckles to himself a little. "Good one, Mark." he says to no one. Suddenly his phone dings. He has a voicemail from Ellen, which means he now has reception. He quickly calls Attanasio.

Mark - "Hello?"
Doug - "Yeah Mark, it's me. Good one. You got me real good. Got me drunk and had everyone pretend that I signed Lohse"
(Mark doesn't say anything)
Doug - "I don't know where you sent me, but you're playing for the ticket home. And boo for not telling Ellen, she seemed clueless!" (laughs)
Mark - "Um Doug, there was no prank"
"What?"
"We really did sign Lohse"
"WHAT?!"
"Well, I signed Lohse, but I needed you out of the picture, at least temporarily. Just so I could get the deal done without hassle."
"I....I...Mark...."
"You're probably around New Mexico by now, but don't worry, once you get there there'll be a return ticket waiting for you."
"But....I...why?"
"You know I want to win, Doug. And the poor guy couldn't stay out there forever, you know? I kinda felt bad for him. And Scott."
"You felt BAD for them?! Mark, we have to give up our first round pick!"
"I know, but, I mean, what's the likelihood of that pick turning out? I need to sell tickets here, Doug."
"So wait, hold on. Am I fired? Are you just taking over? I just signed an extension. We have a deal, man."
"Oh no, no. Nothing like that. I just planned on getting the Lohse deal done, you're still my guy. I just wanted to get it done as quickly as possible, you know. I knew you'd just exacerbate things."
"......."
"Look, Doug, we needed the arm, and look at the bright side. Wily can start in the minors, and we get some extra service time. And we stole a guy from the Cardinals! You know I love that."
"But we basically give a pick back to them.
"Meh."
"What the f.....okay, how much, Mark."
"Not that much. It was a steal, really."
"How much?!"
"Look, that budget thing was only a leveraging thing, right? So..."
"HOW MUCH"
".....three years, 33 million. The Cards get the 28th pi..."
"AHHHHH*click*
"Doug?"

Doug Melvin jumps off a train.

Brewers By Position - Catcher

A position where the Brewers have depth?! WHAT IS THIS NEW DEVILRY?

Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy was one of the biggest surprises in baseball during the 2012 season, spraying line drives all over the field and putting up a 138 wRC+  with 12 dingers in 346 plate appearances. It might have been even more awesome had Lucroy not suffered a broken hand in a bizarre hotel-room incident involving a suitcase and his wife. Luc was thought of as a bat-first catcher coming up through the system, but was just okay in his first two seasons and if anything was more impressive defensively. Last year brought a refined approach and a better swing, striking out way less and hitting more fly balls as well as a willingness to go to the opposite field.

It's easy to point at his .338 BABIP and say "well, he got lucky, he'll regress", but that's lazy analysis. When a player sees a BABIP spike (and not a huge one, in Lucroy's case), the reaction should be finding out WHY it was high before declaring luck as the culprit. The reason his BABIP was high is he leveled out his swing and also swung at better pitches. Miraculously, his well-hit average soared by 46 points. He squared up the ball way more often, cutting his swinging strike numbers and not only hitting more fly balls but maintaining a solid line drive rate to boot. He improved as a hitter overall, and its possible that even further development is in store. He can even run the bases a little bit (for a catcher), which isn't nothing.

Defensively, Lucroy is rock solid. His mediocre throwing arm will prevent him from being Molina-level behind the plate, he's pretty much a wizard in every other form of catcher defense. His pitch-framing is already at a legendary status, ranking fourth in baseball in this pitch-framing study despite only playing for two partial years at the time (the study covered six seasons). He's also excellent at blocking pitches and pitchers seem to enjoy working with him (except for Randy Wolf, but screw him). All told, Luc is quickly developing into the total package.
.285/.340/.430, 16 HR, 4 SB

                                                                                                    my god


Martin Maldonado

Unlike Lucroy, Maldonado is already an elite defender. Also unlike Luc, Maldonado's bat leaves a little something to be desired. Called upon as the starting catcher while Luc was sidelined with the hand injury, Martin got off to a great start at the plate while providing superb defensive chops behind it. All told, his .266/.321/.408 line was nothing to sneeze at, but going forward it's more likely he settles around the .220-ish hitter he was in the minors. He has solid power and has some plate discipline, which is really all you can ask of a backup. Defensively, you name it, he's got it. Excellent pitch-framer, laser throwing arm, pitchers love him. Despite the limited bat, he's probably good enough overall as a player to start for a major league team at some point.
.215/.285/.340, 7 HR, 0 SB

Blake Lalli
A former Cub farmhand, Lalli was brought in on a minor-league deal and will serve as the team's third catcher, probably starting for AAA Nashville. He's raised some eyebrows by hitting well during Spring Training, but it's Spring Training so the first part of this sentence is now worthless. He's acceptable defensively and can hit a tiny bit, but has little power. If he sees time in the majors it will be because of injury.
.230/.275/.300, 0 HR, 0 SB

Brewers By Position - Third Base

I don't like writing intros and I don't think I'm good at it. So here's third base.

Aramis Ramirez

It's tough to know what to do with Ramirez. When the Brewers originally signed him prior to the 2012 season, it looked like a bad deal for a player on the decline. A couple months into the season, it looked like a really bad deal, as Ramirez was hitting just above the Mendoza line and sporting a ghoulish 71 wRC+. He started playing a little better in May, and then starting in June, exploded all over everyone's face. By the end of the year, he had put up what was quite possibly the best season of his 15-year career. He also managed to be much better than advertised defensively, even entering the conversation for a Gold Glove, for whatever that's worth. He somehow stole a career-high nine bases, although to call him a good baserunner is to lie. While a decline from last season is inevitable, there's not a whole lot of precedent for a 34-year old putting up a career year on both sides of the ball.

                                                                          Goddamn right "Wow"

Even with some regression, Ramirez should still be a very good hitter, albeit a unique one. His plate discipline is pretty bizarre, as he's extremely aggressive and swings at too many pitches outside the strike zone, but is pretty comfortable when behind in the count and doesn't strike out very much. When he wants to, he can work the count and take a walk. His BABIP has seen some pretty intense fluctuations over the years, which is to be expected from a high-contact, bad ball hitter who's not fast. His walk rates have also seen quite a bit of variation, so that makes projecting any kind of hitting line difficult. He's also a predictive quagmire defensively. He's been bad most of his career but has put up a couple decent seasons (including last year). His range is obviously not good, but he's tremendous at charging and bare-handing the ball, robbing infield hits and bunt attempts. His arm is pretty strong, but how accurate it'll be year to year is anyone's guess. 

.290/.350/.475, 23 HR, 4 SB

Everyone else

Taylor Green

Jeff Bianchi

Donnie Murphy

Bobby Crosby nope

Alex Gonzalez

None of these guys will see much time unless Ramirez gets hurt or traded. Third base is Green's natural position, so if Aramis misses time for any reason Green will probably see the lion's share of playing time. Bianchi saw some innings there in 2012 but is more of a shortstop. I think I've made my feelings on Murphy and Gonzalez pretty clear. Crosby was given a mercy killing taken out back like Ol' Yeller ritually sacrificed released yesterday.

Aramis Ramirez .gif courtesy of Carson Cistulli

"Let's Talk Prospects" – Johnny Hellweg

Johnny D. Hellweg

Profile:

• Born: 10/29/1988

• Hometown: Ann Arbor, MI

• Height: 6'9" 

• Weight: 210 lbs

• College: Florida CC

• Selected by the Angels in the 16th round (499th overall) of the 2008 Amateur Draft; acquired by the Brewers via trade July of 2012 in exchange for RHP Zack Greinke.

• Finished last year with: AA Huntsville Stars

•  Bats/Throws: R/R

Bio:

Hailing from the Wolverine State, Hellweg first attracted the attention of major league eyes when he was attending high school in O'Fallon, Missouri. The big right-hander was drafted in the 46th round of the 2007 MLB Draft by the Florida Marlins, but did not sign; he decided instead to go to Florida Community College for a year to up his draft stock. He was then drafted again the following year, this time in the 16th round by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. After topping out at 91 mph with his fastball as senior in high school, Hellweg's velocity has grown by leaps and bounds, and has carried his prospect status with him. Hellweg was recorded throwing 93 mph in Rookie ball, but most recently has been clocked hitting triple-digits.

In addition to his big arm, Hellweg's success as a starter over the past two seasons has also helped increase his stock quite a bit. He threw a career high 119 innings over 29 games (23 starts) last year in AA, compiling a 3.29 ERA and striking out 105 in the process. The Brewers obviously took notice of Hellweg's development, as they asked for him to be included as one of three players in a trade package for pitcher Zack Greinke this past summer. Hellweg finished out 2012 pitching in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 2.08 ERA over 9 appearances.

Scouting report:

Hellweg has the kind of profile that teams dream of – tall, durable, throws hard – but unfortunately doesn't have the command needed at this point to fully utilize those attributes. Simply put: Hellweg walks too many batters. When a pitcher is as long as he is, he needs to control a lot more movement with his body than the average guy. This was an issue for Randy Johnson as well, who averaged over a 5.5 BB/9 during his first 4 full seasons in the majors.

That's not saying that anyone should expect Hellweg to be another Johnson; only that their large builds bred similar issues. Aside from body size, though, the other attribute Hellweg shares with Big Unit is a plus-plus fastball – a pitch that Hellweg will occasionally hit 100 mph with. With an above-average curveball as well to keep hitters off balance, the stuff is certainly there for Hellweg to play some sort of impact role at the major league level. The only questions lies in where that spot will be.

What's ahead:

Hellweg was recently optioned to AAA Nashville, and is slated to begin the season there as a part of the starting rotation. He'll likely to get ample time to try and harness his command, too, with there being virtually no rush for him to join the major league rotation anytime soon. If he is called up to the big league club this year, tempered expectations say that it will be later on in the season, and likely just seeing time out of the bullpen.

Brewers By Position - Second Base

We continue our Brewers forecast by looking at a position that's not first base. Thank God I don't have to write about first base again.

Rickie Weeks

Weeks was unspeakably bad for about the first half of the 2012 season, both in the field and at the plate. He was easily one of the worst players if not the worst player in baseball for the first couple months. Fortunately, a baseball season is comprised of two halves and Rickie righted the ship somewhere around mid-June and looked like his old self again. At the end of the year, he boasted (?) a wRC+ of 100, meaning after all was said and done he managed to be an average hitter. Like Hart, we have a pretty good understanding of what Weeks is. Lots of walks and strikeouts, good power, some steals, and defense that fluctuates between below average and very bad. He's often labeled as "injury-prone", but played 160 games in 2010 and 157 in 2012, sandwiching a fluke ankle injury that limited him to 118 games in 2011. Despite his flaws he's one of the best second basemen in the National League.
.245/.350/.450, 22 HR, 15 SB

Scooter Gennett

He can fly LOOK OUT NL CENTRAL

Gennett is one of the Brewers' "top" "prospects", but with Weeks entrenched at the pivot it seems highly unlikely that we see much of Gennett short of a September cameo. Gennett is a hit-first second baseman that needs work defensively. Despite his small (5'10, 165) stature, Gennett could grow into some power which would nicely supplement his already present hit tool. If that doesn't happen, he's basically an empty-average hitter who doesn't walk. Think Ryan Theriot. Then try not to cry.
.275/.310/.350, 1 HR, 2 SB

Also featuring;

Taylor Green 

Bobby Crosby

Alex Gonzalez

Donnie Murphy

Welp. Green had a couple web gem-type moments at second last year but ideally should only be an emergency option. He's not exactly a natural there. Crosby and Murphy are both awful bats that can field, but still, yuck. Gonzalez has never played second but I don't really doubt his fielding potential there. If any of these guys see significant time at second then it means the world has ended. 

SEASON PREVIEW; Brewers by position - First Base

The baseball season is near, and excitement and wonderment fills the air! Every team's fanbase (besides the Astros) is anxious to see their team exceed expectations and achieve that miracle season. So naturally, with all the excitement about, I'll begin our Brewers season preview by looking at the team's most boring position; first base.

During the positional section of our previews, I'll list all the players that are most likely to make an impact at that position, and give an approximation of what numbers I expect from them. I should preface this by saying that I don't like predicting individual numbers, as it's impossible to know how much playing time Hunter Morris will get or whether or not Corey Hart will get traded. But I'll do it anyway, to make it a little more interesting. It should be noted that the numbers I'm predicting for Alex Gonzalez and Taylor Green include what they'll put up at other positions, too. I'm not expecting 34 home runs out of the first base position. So anyway...

First Base
Corey Hart

                                                             Like a caveman swinging a toothpick, he is                         
                                   
Hart is who he is at this point, which is a power-hitting 3-4 WAR first baseman who strikes out a lot, walks sometimes, and can go through ridiculous hot streaks. He's also aging, which is partially why he's at first base in the first place (attn. Dr. Seuss). Defensively, his range isn't much, but seriously how many first baseman have range anyways? His glove is pretty good there regardless. He'll miss the first month or two of the season recovering from knee surgery and he's in the last year of his deal, so the team would do well to trade him as soon as he's healthy and producing. There were extension talks during the offseason but those have appeared to die down. The numbers below reflect what he'd produce during the entire season, but I doubt it's all in Milwaukee.
.265/.340/.500, 20 HR, 3 SB

Alex Gonzalez

                                                           Pictured: Alex Gonzalez. Not pictured: first base

Gonzo has never played anywhere besides shortstop during his major-league career, which is frankly amazing. But he'll start the 2013 season at first base while Hart recovers and Mat Gamel mourns, which is both amusing and a little sad. He has power and some contact ability but doesn't walk. Gonzalez's bat plays fine at SS, but first base holds a much higher standard that he can't possibly meet. He was a slick fielder at his natural position, but there's no telling how his glove will play at first. After Hart returns, he'll probably continue to see occasional at-bats as a utility infielder.
.250/.290/.390, 7 HR, 2 SB

Taylor Green

                                                                        So dreamy. So Canadian.

Green will fill a utility role and will probably see some platoon time at first. For the most part, his Triple-A raking hasn't shown itself in the majors, though it's hard to take too much stock in what amounts to less than 150 career plate appearances. His glove will probably be okay, but his bat doesn't profile at first base even under the most rosy scenarios. He doesn't have a lot of power and his plate discipline needs some work.
.260/.310/.390, 4 HR, 1 SB

Hunter Morris

                                                            I vote we nickname him "Hunter-Killer Drone"

I've written about Hunter recently, and there's no doubt he's the real wild card here. He probably won't break camp with the team, but if he mashes in AAA he could force the team's hand with Corey Hart. If nothing else, he should see some September at-bats.
.235/.280/.380, 3 HR, 0 SB

New and notes: Gonzalez returns, prospect rankings, Corey Hart, Brewers sign a bunch of old guys

Alex Gonzalez strikes back
The Brewers are bringing back veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez on a one-year, $1.5 million-dollar deal that could be worth $2.5 million with incentives. Gonzalez hit .259/.326/.457 in 2012 and provided solid defense before tearing his ACL on May 5th while stealing a base against the San Francisco Giants. He will likely provide insurance in case youngster Jean Segura struggles while also serving as a righty bat off the bench. Gonzalez has never played any position other than shortstop in his career, so it will be interesting to see how the team uses him.

Prospective prospects
'Tis the season for prospect rankings, and most of the major prospect publications have released at least a top-10 of Brewers prospects. The friendly dudes over at Disciples of Uecker already posted a comprehensive list of the different rankings, and there aren't many surprises other than Fangraphs' fairly bizarre inclusions of Jim Henderson and Mark Rogers, both of whom are well past prospect status. The other major takeaway is that the Brewers have a much deeper system than in years past, though they lack high-end upside. We here at The Book of Gorman will do our own set of rankings at some point, just in case you were laying awake at night worried that there just wasn't enough prospect talk on the internet.

Corey Hart :(
Brewers first baseman/awesome sauce Corey Hart underwent knee surgery last Friday, forcing him to miss the first two months of the season. While Hart has had a few DL stints in his career, this is the first time he's had to miss a significant amount of time, and it comes at a bad time for the Brewers, who need all the help they can get to contend. Mat Gamel will likely fill in, and the team has been looking at other veteran options, including former fan favorite Lyle Overbay. I personally still believe that Gamel can hit at the major-league level, but it's unlikely that he can replicate Hart's production offensively and defensively for the first couple months.

Brewers bring a couple of guys out of retirement, plan sequel to "Space Cowboys"
Since the last time I posted on the Brewers' offseason moves, the team has brought in infielder Bobby Crosby and pitcher Kelvim Escobar on minor-league deals, neither of whom have appeared in a major-league game since 2010. Crosby is a former Rookie of the Year winner who's only good season was his ROY campaign in 2004, while Escobar had a solid career as a starter but has one appearance since 2007. The team also signed 34-year old LOOGY Mike Gonzalez to a major-league deal (yay?), and brought in a bunch of other guys in on minor-league deals (RP Jim Hoey, OF Cole Garner, SS Ozzie Smith Newsome, Rene Tosoni, Alfredo Figaro [sort of], and C Robinson Diaz).

Brewers Have Done Something!!

Ahem.  Ok, so maybe that was a little dramatic.  But, I think a lot of Brewers fans have been going a little stir-crazy over the team making only very minor moves this off-season and many are concerned about the team's pitching.  So today's reported signing of Tom Gorzelanny brought more attention that he probably deserves.  The deal is pretty widely-reported, but isn't official until he completes a physical and is officially announced by the team.  It's reported to be a 2-year deal worth approximately $6 million.  It's a deal on-par with Jason Grilli's, but far less costly than one given to Mike Adams or certainly, the truly goofy deals for Brandon League or Jeremy Affeldt.

At first blush, it's easy to conclude Gorzelanny fills that LOOGY spot in the bullpen the team was missing.  But until last season, Gorzelanny had been largely a starter.  (In 2006, 2007 and 2008, he exclusively started).  In 2012, he made only 1 start--as a spot fill-in.  In my view, if the team is set on using the "young guys" to fill out the rotation, there's nothing to indicate Gorzelanny would be a starter.  He provides a lot to the Brewers, however, because he can be the one LHP in the 'pen but will be there to step into the rotation if someone falters or is injured.  Additionally, his splits don't show any distinct advantage vs LHB, except in OBP.  (In 2012, he allowed an OBP of .343 to RHB, but .289 to LHB; the oppSLG was nearly identical, as was oppBA).  He should really be viewed as a reliever, not a LOOGY.

In 72 IP last year, he posted a 2.88 ERA and a 1.319 WHIP.  His career HR/9 of 1.0 should work well in Miller Park but I'd prefer his 2012 K/9 of 7.8 (his career K/9 is only 7.0) be higher, especially for a guy in relief.  His ERA+ of 138 showed he provided truly solid value.  Grozelanny is only 30 and last year was the first year he was used exclusively in relief, so it's difficult for me to discern if his performance last year was maturation or succeeding in the right environment or a pure anomaly.  In 2007, he threw 201 innings, had a 3.88 ERA, a 1.398 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9 and 6.0 K/9.  That correlates fairly well with his 2012 work, particularly with keeping the ball on the ground and in play.

Given the way the market moved this off-season, Gorzelanny is a solid signing.  He fills out a badly needed spot in the bullpen and provides a good back-up option for the rotation (or an actual option in the rotation if someone falters in the spring).  He comes at a reasonable cost, without having to go the 3 years many other relievers have obtained and is far from a fringe guy.

Players capsules: Murphy, Webb, Jakubauskas

The Brewers actually did something today, signing utility infielder Donnie Murphy to a minor-league deal. Since players of his ilk have a tendency to end up on the Brewers major league team at some point, I figured he was worth writing about, in conjunction with a couple other mildly interesting minor deals they've consummated.

Name: Donald "Donnie" Murphy
Birthdate: March 10, 1983 (age 29)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 5'10, 190
Position: 2B, SS, 3B

Looks like: 

Originally a 5th-round pick by the Royals in the 2002 MLB draft, Murphy has done a fair share of bouncing around in his career. He spent 2004-2006 with Kansas City, '07-'08 with the A's, '09 in the Orioles' organization, and most recently was a member of the Florida/Miami Marlins. Offensively, Murphy looks like the stereotypical "quad A" player, someone who hit fine in the minors (.279/.347/.461) but cannot translate it to the majors (.205/.270/.373). He has a bit of power (18 home runs in 640 career MLB at-bats) but strikes out a ton, basically making him a younger version of Cody Ransom, just without the walks.

Like Ransom, his saving grace is his glove and versatility. He can play all the infield positions (aside from 1B), and plays them pretty well. His range isn't spectacular, but he has soft hands and a good arm.

If he were to make the team, his role would be similar to the role Craig Counsell held in past seasons, a defensive replacement type who can occasionally start. If Murphy were to receive substantial playing time, it would either mean he achieved a late-career Justin Ruggiano-type offensive breakout or that something terrible has happened. Let's hope something terrible doesn't happen.

Oh yeah, and his middle name is Rex.


Name: Christopher Jakubauskas
Birthdate: December 22, 1978 (age 33)
Bats/Throws: L/R (?!)
Height/Weight: 6'2, 215
Position: SP/RP
Looks like: 
Chris Jakubauskas has a pretty incredible backstory. He's Lithuanian-American, and was a first baseman at the University of Oklahoma who didn't convert to pitching until after he graduated. Jaku (as I'll now call him to avoid carpal tunnel) pitched in independent league ball for a few years before the Seattle Mariners took notice and signed him to a minor league deal. After toiling in the minors for two years, Jaku finally made the Mariners' opening day roster in 2009. He appeared in 35 games that season split between starting and relief and even tossed a complete game, albeit in a loss. He would spend 2010 in the Pirates' organization, 2011 with the Orioles, and 2012 split between the Blue Jays' and Diamondbacks' minor league systems. Jaku sustained a scary head injury with pitching with the Pirates, taking a Lance Berkman line drive off his head during a start against the Houston Astros that left him with a concussion. Sadly, that's probably his most significant major league moment.

As far as stuff, Jaku throws four pitches; a fastball that sits 88-92, a curveball in the mid-70s, and will occasionally use a low-80s changeup and a high-80s cutter. His curve is probably his best pitch, but I use the word "best" liberally. He tends to pitch to contact, and while his groundball rate isn't shabby, he has a pretty serious homer problem (career 1.41 HR/9). His career .307/.375/.531 line against lefties is fairly problematic as well.

Considering the team's depth at starting pitching, it's hard to see Jakubauskas making any real impact on the Brewers next year. If things work out just right for him, he could carve out a role as a long man, but it's more likely he's just an arm for AAA.


Name: Travis Webb
Birthdate: August 2, 1984
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6'4, 205
Position: SP/RP
Looks like:
A former 8th-round pick in the 2006 draft, Webb spent seven years in the Reds' minor league system, making 95 starts among 172 appearances. He was used primarily as a reliever the last two seasons, which is probably his role long-term.

He uses four pitches; a fastball that sits 86-90 and has a little cut to it, a slider that sits around 80, a changeup in the high 70s, and a seldom used curveball in the low 70s. His arm angle and rough walk numbers (career 4.7 BB/9) will keep him in the relief role, and his arm angle will likely limit him to a lefty-specialist role. Aside from his shaky control, he's a flyball pitcher who has experienced some home run issues in the past. Since he's transitioned to the bullpen, however, his strikeout rate has spiked (10.9 K/9 in 2011-12) and he boasts a 2.72 FIP against lefties.

Even if the Brewers add a couple more relief arms in free agency, Webb probably has a shot at making the team as a lefty specialist if he can tighten up his control a little. The team hasn't had a decent lefty since Mitch Stetter's last good year in 2009, and Webb could end that string of futility. If nothing else, he can at least provide minor league depth and give the team an option should a need arise.

The bullpen problem

It's not a news flash that the Milwaukee Brewers possessed a pretty terrible bullpen in 2012, and the performance of the relief pitching was probably the biggest reason the Brewers missed the postseason. I'm not going to focus on the numbers, because they're bad. Pretty much every Brewers reliever had their worst season. Understandably, Doug Melvin has already started a massive overhaul, parting ways with Kameron Loe, Jose Veras, and Manny Parra. Set-up man Francisco Rodriguez is a free agent and is unlikely to return under any circumstance. Burke Badenhop was acquired in a trade, and Melvin has already added five other relievers on minor-league deals. Next up is lefty relievers. That all sounds reasonable, right?

Sort of. The minor league deals are all fine moves, and Melvin has a history of finding treasure among other people's trash (John Axford, Marco Estrada, Jim Henderson, and Jeff Bianchi to name a few). Pursuing a lefty makes tons of sense, the team has had to make do without a decent one for a couple of years now. Parra needed to go. But the rest of the moves are murky at best.

Veras has an annoying skill set and is often difficult to watch, but pitched much better in the second half and has been a decent reliever throughout his career. He may not have been worth what he would have been paid, but his strikeout ability is nice to have around. The Loe and Badenhop moves are far more puzzling. Loe might cause Brewers fans to roll their eyes, but he was a perfectly fine middle reliever for most of his time in Milwaukee. Injuries and a lack of better options briefly forced Loe into a setup role in 2011, a role he is not designed for and some blown saves soured fans' opinion of him. A plethora of short outings by the starting rotation led to him being overworked early in 2012, and he never seemed to recover. The team decided to try to do better....by trading for his twin in Burke Badenhop. While Badenhop had a better 2012 (and is a little cheaper), his performance in prior seasons suggest that he's no better than Loe overall. Basically, they're buying Badenhop's career year combined with Loe's worst year over the larger sample of their respective careers.

This is where an interesting problem arises; we watched Loe and Veras fail repeatedly last year, which makes us want to be done with them even though we'd look at them as good buy-low candidates if the pitched somewhere else in 2012 (to give another example, when Dan Haren was cut loose by the Angels, every other team's fanbase looked at him as a great bounced-back option, while Angels fans viewed him as an aging starting pitcher with back problems and velocity issues). The recency effect also helps is forget how good guys like Loe and Axford (now viewed as a shaky and unreliable closer) were previously. This also shows us the volatility of relief pitchers; 60 innings is a small sample size for any pitcher, yet for a reliever that's an entire season, and a slump or random bad luck is all it takes to taint the perception of said reliever. Paying these guys lots of money is an enormous risk, and dismissing them because of one bad year is also a risk.

So with all of this in mind, what's the correct way to rebuild a bullpen? The old-school approach suggests finding seasoned veterans (including a "proven closer"), an approach that worked pretty well for teams like the Orioles, Rangers, and Yankees in 2012, but on the other hand failed horribly for the Mets, Red Sox, and Marlins. The new school approach is to go cheap, buying low-cost veterans and trusting unproven youngsters. Worked great for the Rays, A's, and Nationals, not so much for the Cubs, Rockies, and Astros. This leaves us at something of an impasse; putting faith in Brandon Kintzler and Tyler Thornburg sounds cool, but could backfire just as easily as signing Sean Burnett and Jason Grilli to hefty deals.

The best solution to this problem is simple, but not easy; depth. It's what the good teams have and the bad teams don't. Bullpen depth is something the team did not have last year, having to bring up guys like Vinnie Chulk, Juan Perez, and Mike McClendon when injuries and ineptness happened, and unsurprisingly it led to more ineptness. In a vacuum, there was nothing wrong with the relief core that broke camp this last season, and there was no way anyone could have predicted that every pitcher would have a terrible year. But that's no excuse for having someone like Chulk as next best option in AAA. Whether it's through trades, free agency, or continued development of the youngsters, Melvin's primary concern should not just be quality, but quantity as well.