Brewers/Cubs series review - We Won a Game!

This review is brought to you by The Goat Emporium. Goat Heads: Because what else would you expect?

Will the rain ever end? The weather finally caught up with the team and washed out the would-be final game of the series tonight, meaning that this bad boy is over, baby.

What a hum dinger this series was! And when I say that, I mean it was about as good as an episode of "Keeping Up the Kardashians" (I know, how 2012 of me!). It actually wasn't that bad, they did win a game after all, but it feels like they should have won both. To sum up this series – the offense looked good for the first 11 innings, the starting pitching looked worlds better (even if it was the Cubs), and the bullpen appears to be as bad, if not worse, than last year. The hot topic in Brewer Nation today surrounded Roenicke's decision to use John Axford for an additional inning after bringing him into a tie game in the 7th to get the final out. And right in line with the rest of his 2013 season to date, Axford bombed again, promptly loading the bases before being pulled in favor of Alfredo Figaro, who allowed all three baserunners to score (et tu, Alfredo?).

I made my own thoughts pretty clear last night on Twitter as to what I thought of Roenicke's decision to stick with Axford, so I'll try to be a little more even-keeled here. I get what he was thinking: tie game, have a somewhat tired bullpen, just lost Narveson to the DL, and don't want to go into extras burning two relievers against two batters. I get that. The question I'm wondering, more or less, was why he even used Axford in the 7th to begin with? In case you've been living under a rock recently, John Axford has not been good so far this season. Some think it may be a change in his release point, others pointing to dips in velocity, but whatever the reason is, he's been really off and getting absolutely bludgeoned. He's been getting hit so hard, in fact, that Roenicke removed him from the closer role just a couple days ago. So why did he go with Ax if we're not even sure whether or not he actually trusts him? Your guess is as good as mine. The facts are these: John Axford has been mostly ineffective this season, and whether or not he'll eventually figure it out, he probably should be kept away from high-leverage situations for a long while.

So, what could have been a pretty good series ended on a sour note, despite a good showing by the other facets of the team: offense and starting pitching. And actually, if we want to get technical, the offense may not have even scored more than one run yesterday if not for some rough defense by Starlin Castro (which isn't terribly unusual). Even still, Estrada and Peralta both looked on top of their games, giving the team at least 6 2/3 innings on back-to-back nights. Maybe this little bit of success will spread through the Brewers dugout like a raging case of Good Luck Pox? Or maybe they'll just spread Chicken Pox. Wouldn't that be the worst?

Okay, enough blather, it's awards time.

MVP: Wily Peralta

I know. Braun was 5 for 9, and Aoki has been on fire. But guess what? Ryan Braun will often be 5 for 9, and I want to save giving this honor to Aoki for that one series he'll have this year where he'll somehow hit 3 home runs, including 2 in one game.

The big question coming into this season was the pitching, and after the first 6 games, things we're not looking good for anyone outside of the usual suspects. If the Brewers hopes for this year and beyond fall on anyone in particular, though, it's this young man. Peralta has been rated as the Brewers top prospect by pretty much every baseball analyst out there, and he sure looked the part last night. He had his fastball topping out at 96 mph, moving away and in on hitters like it was being pulled by a string. Yes, it was the Cubs, and on top of that, it was a cold night. But you know what? Peralta already has the stuff to put away top-level hitters regardless, and there's little questioning that. What he needs to find is consistency in his control, and 62 strikes out of 94 pitches is exactly the kind of thing that will lead to long term success. Very nice to see out of a young pitcher like Peralta.

And on top of everything else, he was 1-2 with a walk. Eat your heart out, Yovani!

LVP: The Bullpen

I've got the fear, you guys. I've got it real bad.

Okay, bit of an overreaction there. As poor as the bullpen has looked so far, I'm going to predict that things get straightened out sooner rather than later. A common trend with early struggles is that they either fix themselves quickly or are eliminated through replacement. It's highly unlikely Axford sees a save situation again any time soon, and aside from a couple struggles this series, Kintzler, Figaro  and Henderson have looked better than decent. I'm all aboard a bullpen by committee, because when you don't have a dominant relief pitcher, you're better off riding the hot hand.

Don't believe me? Just look at the last two World Series champs. The Cardinals and Giants we're having some rather troubling bullpen issues until they hit the final stretch towards the playoffs. And you know how they did it? Handing the ball to whoever was throwing the best at the time. Sometimes, it's just that easy.

Play of the Series:

Fun fact: Marco Estrada is averaging one hit per start, and has an many RBIs as Aramis Ramirez so far this season. Pitcher hits are always the best.

What's Next:

The Brewers road trip continues into the cannibalistic Ozarks of St. Louis. Reformed baby-eater, Kyle Lohse, will be starting the first game of the series against his former team and his replacement, Shelby Miller. The Cardinals are 5-4 to start the year, but have just lost their closer, Jason Motte ,to the DL for what might be the season. That's not to say their new closer, Mitchell Boggs, is much worse than Motte, especially coming off of a nice year playing 8th-inning guy for manager Mike Matheny, but his Axfordian start to the season may give way to some pretty wild ninth innings throughout this series. Oh, and did I mention that the Cardinals eat babies?

We don't discriminate on species.

Till Friday, folks. Keep the faith!

Brewers lose Peralta and game, season dwindling

The Brewers played an odd game yesterday, losing 2-1 to the Reds in what can best be described as a stomach-punch of a game. Until the 9th inning, it was the Carlos Gomez show, as he showed that he can take over a game on both sides of the ball by homering for the Brewers only run, making some outstanding catches in center field, and stealing a base after a single because that's a Carlos Gomez thing. Brewers starting pitcher Wily Peralta was dominant for 5 1/3 innings but left early with what is being called bicep tendinitis, which fortunately for the Brewers is a fairly minor injury but unfortunately is one that will likely keep him from starting again this season (Tyler Thornburg time).

The bullpen successfully bridged the gap to end-of-game reliever John Axford, who blew away Zack Cozart and Joey Votto (!) before serving up a first-pitch tater to Todd Frazier, and then followed that up by giving up a base hit to Jay Bruce and a walk-off triple to Dioner Navarro. Dioner Navarro should not hit triples off of John Axford. An ugly yet fitting end to the game for Axford, who has been better the last couple months but no one will remember that thanks to this game.

To me, the strangest part of this game was the performance of Reds starter Matt Latos. For those unfamiliar with Latos, he's essentially the Reds' version of Yovani Gallardo, a solid #2 starter the Reds gave up too much for who will look unhittable in some games but very hittable in others. Latos usually sits 92-93 mph on his fastball, but in this game was sitting around 90 mph and threw pitch after pitch right over the heart of the plate. Latos had no problem throwing strikes, but left a lot of pitches up and drew only seven swings-and-misses total (just three strikeouts), none on fastballs.

The Brewers responded by hitting a majority said meatballs right to the Reds' fielders with the exception of Gomez, who hit a ball to a place where it's impossible to put a fielder. By looking at the box score, it looks like Latos was fairly dominant, but watching the game it was pretty clear something was off. It means little to the Brewers now but it's something to keep an eye on for the Reds heading into the postseason.

And speaking of the postseason, this loss puts the Brewers four games back with six to play, and while the current 2nd wild card incumbent Cardinals have two tough matchups against the Reds and Nationals, they would have to go 2-4 at best for the Brewers to even tie them, and the Dodgers have moved ahead of the Brewers to boot. The season is likely over, but the team gave it a great run over the last month. There's still plenty to watch for on the Brewers (Aramis chasing the team's doubles record, Braun kicking ass, a likely Thornburg start, quest to finish above .500), even if the season didn't end the way we wanted.


Thanks to Brooksbaseball.net for the PITCH/fx data!

Can the Brewers count on Mark Rogers next year?

Despite a disappointing season, it's not all frowns for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. They've had encouraging performances from many young players, namely Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Carlos Gomez. But even though those players (as well as Nori Aoki) have been pleasant surprises, the guy who had the most to overcome might be former pitching prospect Mark Rogers. A 2004 first-round pick, Rogers has had a whopping four two shoulder surgeries as well as two wrist surgeries since joining the Brewers organization. He was an afterthought coming into the season, and honestly, I thought he was done as a baseball player after the wrist surgeries and subsequent poor minor league performance in 2011. If you had told me that he would secure a major league rotation spot before Tyler Thornburg or Wily Peralta, I would have called you a filthy liar.

But I would have been wrong. Rogers pitch fairly well in AAA Nashville, and earned a promotion to the Brewers' starting rotation following the Zack Greinke trade. While his major league numbers (5.02 ERA) seem just okay after five starts, there's evidence he's been unlucky; that lofty ERA is accompanied by a .316 BABIP, 67.9 LOB %, and an inflated 15.4% HR/FB rate, leading to a 3.79 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. In short, better things may be in store. Of course, that's assuming he stays healthy.

In eight seasons in the organization, this is only the second time he's eclipsed 100 innings pitched (2010 being the other). The team has hinted at shutting him down after a couple more starts, which is not only good for his health but should give the team an opportunity to get a look at Hiram Burgos, Peralta or Thornburg in the major league rotation. It's a double-edged sword; while it keeps his workload in check, if any of the aforementioned youngsters are lights-out in his absence, it could cost him a spot in the majors next year.

Looking at what's currently in the organization, a 2013 rotation could consist of Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and two of the group of Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Chris Narveson, and perhaps Burgos. And that's assuming the team doesn't make a trade or go after a free agent or two, which would further muddy the waters. The team will likely try to contend in 2013, meaning that the likelihood of them going into next season with the above rotation is very unlikely.

It's not all bad for Rogers, however. While he hasn't been very reliable, there's reason to believe he could still push hard for a rotation spot no matter what the team does to supplement the pitching staff. Among his likely competitors, Peralta has struggled greatly with control in the minors, Thornburg might be too small to be a SP and has had trouble with the long ball, and Burgos hasn't proven himself in the majors yet. Estrada would seem to have a leg up on a rotation spot, but has pitched well in the bullpen before and may be a better fit for a relief role than Rogers. While a relief spot may seem good for Rogers in theory, less innings for him may not equate health; he's be pitching less innings, sure, but he'd likely be throwing harder more often. And the team has shown no interest whatsoever in making him a reliever. Not to mention that despite everything that's happened to him, he's still touching 97 mph with his fastball and breaking a wicked slider.

Personally, if I were running the team next year (read: I won't be) I'd give him every opportunity to win a starting rotation spot. While it's small sample size, it's hard to ignore a 31/9 K/BB ratio, which is what he's done in the majors this year. That kind of strikeout ability has a lot of value for a 4th or 5th starter, even if he's only going five or six innings a start. And if he once again can't stay healthy (I doubt he would lose a spot due to performance), the team would have options for replacing him. Can they count on him? Probably not, but because of there backup options, they don't really have to.

First-half grades - pitchers

The Brewers pitching staff has had an odd season. The starting rotation got off to a rough start while the bullpen was passable, and as the season went on the rotation improved while the bullpen fell off of a cliff. The team has basically lived and died by the performance of the pitching staff and I'll be honest, a lot of these guys are tough to grade. Irredisregardless, I'll give it a shot.

Starters

Zack Greinke - 19 starts, 9-3 (W-L), 111 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 WAR
Greinke has really had a great half-season for the Brewers. I don't really know what else to add to that. He had a couple poor starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks where he was basically singled to death, but has otherwise pitched like an ace and is really fun to watch on top of that. He's got a decent shot at the Cy Young award if he keeps this up. Grade: A-

Yovani Gallardo - 18 starts, 7-6, 108.1 IP, 8.89 K/9, 4.15 BB/9, 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
There were a lot of high hopes for Gallardo coming into the season, and some had him pegged as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. Fast-forward to halfway through the season, and Yovani is, well....still Yovani.  And frankly, that's fine. He's still inefficient, still gives up too many home runs, and still gets pounded by the Cardinals, but he's a solid #2 starter and realistically that's what we should expect from him. Many thought he had turned a corner last year by drastically lowering his walk rate, but at this point that seems to have been a mirage. Grade: B-

Shaun Marcum - 13 starts, 5-3, 82.1 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
Marcum was the Brewers' most consistent starter last season, and was well on his way to another solid year when elbow soreness landed him on the DL. Initially slated to return after the All-Star break, Marcum's elbow is still giving him trouble, which is a major concern for a guy who's already had Tommy John surgery once in his career. Grade: B-

Chris Narveson - 2 starts, 1-1, 9 IP, 5.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, -0.1 WAR

Made only two starts (one good, one bad) before a torn rotator cuff injury ended his season. When healthy, he's one of the best #5 starters in baseball. Grade: Incomplete

Randy Wolf - 19 games (18 starts), 2-6, 99.1 IP, 5.89 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 5.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
Wolf has been something of a FIP buster during his time with the Brewers, a guy who puts up a better ERA than his peripheral numbers suggest. But it's all come crashing down this season, and Wolf has been an unmitigated disaster. He's done just about everything poorly, and watching him pitch feels kind of like shoving pencils into my eye sockets. He has an affinity for throwing up and in to righties, but he can't hit that spot for strikes, so he falls behind and then has to throw meatballs just to get into the count. Glancing at his game log, he's had four good starts; three combined against the awful Cubs and Astros, and one against the mediocre Royals. While there's some evidence he's been unlucky (.332 BABIP), he's simply not throwing the quality strikes that he had been the previous two seasons. His starting job is probably safe no matter what, but the Marcum injury assures that he will have no choice but to figure it out in the rotation. Grade: D

Marco Estrada - 14 games (8 starts), 0-3, 51 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 4.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
Estrada has had tremendous value to the Brewers the last two years, bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and pitching reasonably well in both roles. He took over for the injured Narveson early in the season, and has been a pleasant surprise. He's done a great job getting ahead of hitters and mixing his pitches, though he sometimes pays for his zone-pounding ways in the form of home runs. His most memorable performance was his 12 strikeout performance against the Reds, and aside from a brief DL stint has been pretty reliable all season. A nice second half should cement a starting role for him in 2013.
Grade: C+

Michael Fiers - 8 games (7 starts), 3-3, 46.2 IP, 9.64 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Fiers came up and seized a rotation spot by pitching like madman through his first seven starts. His numbers are eerily similar to Estrada's, the difference being Fiers has kept the ball in the park. Like Estrada, he has kind of a "meh" fastball, but his off-speed stuff is pretty great and he's worked the corners of the strike zone better than anyone could have hoped. He's also similar to Estrada in that he's an extreme flyball pitcher who'll spend a lot of time in Miller Park, so some regression is likely coming, but seeing as he doesn't walk anybody I don't foresee him being firebombed often. Fiers is probably a #4 starter long-term, but his performance thus far is impressive and has really saved the Brewers' bacon. Grade: B+

Tyler Thornburg - 1 start, 0-0, 5.1 IP, 3.38 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 8.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Called up for a spot start against Toronto, Thornburg cruised through his big-league debut until the 6th inning, when he served up three consecutive home runs, chasing him from the game. In fairness, the homers were hit by the powerful trio of Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, so it's a bit harsh to judge him from just this start (though he's likely a reliever long-term). We'll probably see Tyler again in September after the All-Star break. Grade: Incomplete

Relievers

Wily Peralta - 1 game, 0-0, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

The consensus top prospect in the Brewers system to start the year, Peralta has struggled with his control in the minors, keeping him from seizing a rotation spot for the big league club. Made one relief appearance during a brief call-up in April, and was immediately sent back down. Peralta seems to have turned his season around in AAA, and will almost certainly be the first guy up if an injury/trade occurs. Grade: Incomplete

Mike McClendon - 4 games, 0-0, 8 IP, 4.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 6.75 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

McClendon has bounced back and forth between the Brewers and the AAA club the last few years, and until this year had pitched reasonably well. But there's a reason why he's never stuck around long, and that reason is that he's not very good. A pure deception guy with a goofy delivery that he changes from pitch to pitch, it can get ugly when a team figures him out. His four appearances this year a largely forgettable. 

Grade: F

Livan Hernandez - 6 games, 1-0, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 6.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, -0.2 WAR

Claimed off of waivers from Atlanta, Livan is fat, old, kinda fun to watch, and just about done as a major leaguer. He's passable as a long reliever (or Jabba the Hut doppelgänger), which is hopefully where he'll stay until someone better is found (Seth McClung?). Grade: D+

Vinnie Chulk - 7 games, 1-0, 9 IP, 10.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 10.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

In and out of the majors since 2003, Chulk was an absolute apocalypse during his brief tenure with the Brewers. Words cannot describe how truly awful he was. Basically a mop-up guy, he was scorched (a remarkable 36.4 line drive % allowed) in all but three appearances, one of them being an important scoreless two-inning outing in an extra-inning win over the Cubs where he was the last man available to pitch. Sadly, that outing was a red herring. Grade: F

Juan Perez - 10 games, 0-1, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 5.14 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, -0.3 WAR

Was up for about a month and did typical crappy LOOGY things. Lots of strikeouts and walks, not really good enough to stick. Grade: D-

Tim Dillard - 34 games, 0-2, 37 IP, 7.05 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
Dillard has gained something of a cult following due to his funky sidearm delivery, hat tilt, sideburns, killer Tim Kurkjian impersonation, and that one time he wiggled out of a bases-loaded, one out jam. But the Legend of Tim Dillard is fading; he should only be facing right handed batters due to his ROOGY ways, but as the season's worn on righties have been hitting the ball harder and harder off of him. His numbers aren't awful and he has some uses but with Kameron Loe around, he's kind of redundant. Grade: D

John Axford - 36 games, 2-5 (15 saves), 34.1 IP, 12.84 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 4.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
The struggles of John Axford have been well-documented. The walks and home runs allowed have skyrocketed this season, and that's a deadly combination. There are some signs that he may have been a bit unlucky, but it's still pretty embarrassing that guys like Clint Barmes and Gaby Sanchez are hitting bombs off of him. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but the first half of 2012 was a largely forgettable one for the Ax-man. Grade: C-


Manny Parra - 36 games, 1-3, 39 IP, 9.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

At the beginning of the season, I was excited at the thought of Parra as a reliever. His control issues coupled with an inability to get through a batting order multiple times prevented him from reaching his potential as a starter, but those problems would be minimized in the bullpen. He could just crank it up for an inning or two and not have to worry about batters figuring him out. Unfortunately, Parra's struggles followed him to his relief role. His walks and home runs allowed have gone down along with his ground ball % going up (all good things), but he still falls behind hitters far too often, leading him to groove hittable pitches that batters are smoking for line drives. He has improved against left-handed hitters (he was a reverse platoon split guy coming into this season) and he strung together some nice outings coming into the break, so there's still hope he can be a valuable member of the bullpen in the second half. Grade: C-

Kameron Loe - 37 games, 4-2, 38.2 IP, 6.52 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
Kam does two things well; get ground balls and slay right-handed batters. He hasn't done those things quite as well this season as he has in the past, but he's still a really nice guy to have around. Used heavily the first couple months of the season, he has trouble locating his bowling ball of a sinker when he's tired, which turns those ground balls into line drives. The usage pattern combined with his skill set and his willingness to do the dirty work can lead to wild ERA fluctuations during a season, but when he's right, he's one of the more reliable arms in the bullpen. Grade: C

Jose Veras - 40 games, 3-3, 37 IP, 9.97 K/9, 6.08 BB/9, 4.62 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 0.0 WAR

WALKS. LOTS OF WALKS. Grade: D+

Francisco Rodriguez - 42 games, 1-4, 38.2 IP, 7.91 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Like Axford, K-Rod hasn't been able to follow up his stellar 2011 campaign. Home runs have been a huge problem, and his ability to generate swings-and-misses has faded. He's also giving up more walks and line drives, and he's not even been all that unlucky; a .318 BABIP allowed, which is above league average but not outrageous. All these things put together reveal a pitcher with eroding skills, and it's been costing the Brewers in close games. Grade: C-