Thoughts on selling/trade value

With a disastrous performance in the first two games of a  entire three game series against the NL Central-leading Cincinatti Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers are just about out of the playoff race. Although crazier things have happened, teams with playoff aspirations do not get shut down by Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, two of the most hittable (read: worst) starting pitchers in baseball. As well as allowing nine runs in two games to an offense that's pretty horrific without Joey Votto. So, assuming the team goes into the blessed and hallowed "sell mode", what can the Brewers reasonably expect for some of these players?

Zack Greinke 
Greinke is the biggest piece the Brewers have. With the news that the Brewers will only receive one compensation pick if he leaves in free agency (instead of two like the old days), the value of keeping him all season and then letting him leave in free agency lessens greatly. There are a lot of issues tied into dealing him, however.

The first (and biggest) one is that the Brewers offered him a contract extension in the $112 million range. Frankly, he would be a lunatic not to take it. He was offered near-Matt Cain money, and although his upside is higher than Cain's (Cain hasn't come close to Greinke's Cy Young season in '09, which was done in the tougher league and in a tougher run environment), he's nowhere near as safe or consistent year-to-year. He's also unlikely to find a deal like it in free agency; Cole Hamels will command the biggest money, and while Greinke is a clear second there are many solid young-ish arms that will cost a fraction of what Greinke will likely ask for (McCarthy, Liriano, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, etc.). Tied in with that is the fact that many high-payroll teams are either disinterested in Greinke or looking to cut costs. The only team that can reasonably be forecasted to offer Greinke a big deal is the Dodgers, and it's no secret the covet Hamels more than anyone.

Another issue is there's plenty of pitching available on the trade market. Why give up a king's ransom for Greinke when you could have Ryan Dempster or Franciso Liraino for less? And if you are willing to go all in, Cole Hamels is the better option and you could argue James Shields is a worthwhile investment as well.

Oh, and about the king's ransom; it's not going to happen. Seeing as the team that trades for Greinke will not receive draft picks when he leaves in FA, the Brewers have much less leverage. They'd either receive a C-level prospect that's close to the bigs but has low upside, or someone with tools who's light years away from contributing. Or a collection of below-average major leaguers. Ick.

Shaun Marcum
Marcum is also a free agent at the end of the year, but he's currently hurt and the only chance the Brewers have of moving him is a post-deadline waiver deal. Not likely to get much for him.

Randy Wolf
Also a free agent. He has a team option for next year but only an imbecile would not buy him out. He's just about worthless as a trade asset. 

Jose Veras
See Wolf, Randy.

Francisco Rodriguez
He's a "closer", and he's a big name, so there's a non-zero chance that a GM become nostalgic and gives up a 4th outfielder or relief prospect for him. The team could move him for nothing just to cut costs.

John Axford
Axford is cheap and under team control for awhile yet, and that's what would make him tempting to a team desperate for relief help despite his struggles. Seeing as relievers a volatile and Axford is sexy when he's right, he could bring back an interesting return. A progressive-thinking GM would think about moving him, but progressive isn't exactly how I would describe Doug Melvin. Not going anywhere.

Corey Hart
Hart could bring back a nice return seeing as the first base position has weakened this year and he's signed through next year on a very reasonable deal. He has a great relationship with the organization and is a good extension candidate, so it's highly unlikely he's dealt. 

Rickie Weeks
Not happening

Aramis Ramirez
It's odd to think that Ramirez could bring back the biggest return, but it's probably true. Bats are hard to come by on the trade market, and he's about as reliable as they come. He's also not a rental, but the next two years of his contract are unsightly. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in him and might part with Nate Eovaldi or (hopefully) Zach Lee to get a competent bat. If they don't get Chase Headley, it could happen. Let's hope it does.

Nyer Morgan
He's the offensive version of K-Rod. Having a bad year, but brings value as a part-time player and was tremendous last year. We can only hope teams trade for the 2011 version of Morgan. Would bring little-to-nothing in return, but would open up playing time for prospect Logan Schafer. 

George Kottaras
George is a great backup catcher and would be an extremely useful piece for a playoff team. It's hard to gauge what return he could bring because his value might greatly exceed how good he actually is. There just aren't many catchers on the market. He's also a decent pinch-hitter but that might be his only role on the Brewers once Jonathan Lucroy returns. Maybe they could package him with Randy Wolf in a trade (GET IT? IT'S A BREWERS JOKE).

Travis Ishikawa
Seems like a classic post-waiver deal. Decent pinch-hitter, can play a couple positions.

Anyone else
There's not much else of worth that the Brewers could move, and certainly not for any real value. I suppose Manny Parra and Kam Loe could go, but whether they like it or not the Brewers have to field a bullpen of some kind. No one wants the shortstops. Braun, Aoki, Gallardo, Lucroy, and anyone else young/cheap are safe, as they should be. 

First half grades - hitters

After a disappointing first half, the Brewers enter the All-Star break with a 40-45 record, 8 games behind first place Pittsburgh. Injuries and poor relief pitching have taken their toll, shadowing an above-average offense and solid starting pitching. As the article's title suggests, I will delve more into the individual performances of everyone who has donned a Brewer uniform this season. Today I focused on the offense, sometime later this week I'll look at the pitchers. wRC+ and WAR stats are accurate through Saturday's games, while the other numbers are accurate through Sunday (Fangraphs doesn't update during the day, ESPN does).

Catcher


Jonathan Lucroy - .345/.387/.583 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 5 HR, 17 R, 30 RBI, 2 SB, 163 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
After a solid sophomore campaign in 2011, Lucroy came roaring out of the gates in 2012, establishing himself as one of the best catchers in the National League before breaking his hand in a freak hotel room accident. A few aspects of Lucroy's start are unsustainable (including a .519 average with RISP and a .381 BABIP), but his HR/FB and LD rates are consistent with last year's and he's cut down on his strikeouts considerably. As far as defense goes, he's good at blocking pitches in the dirt as well as pitch-framing, but his throwing arm comes and goes. He should be back shortly after the All-Star break. Grade: A


George Kottaras - .228/.430/392, 3 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 138 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
At this point, most Brewer fans know what Kottaras is; good backup catcher. He walks a lot, has some power, is a decent pinch-hitter, and has a questionable glove. He has improved defensively since joining the Brewers in 2010, but other than blocking pitches, is below average in every other defensive category (his arm sucks). But as far as backups go, he's an extremely valuable asset. He was very hot at the plate to start the season, but has pretty much done George Kottaras things ever since. Grade: C+


Martin Maldonado - .245/.303/.391, 5 HR, 11 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 97 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Maldonado was called up when Lucroy went down, and has not disappointed. He's an elite defensive catcher with a little pop, and despite uninspiring minor league numbers, hasn't appeared overmatched at the plate. It doesn't hurt that he's come up with some big hits late in games. He's made a good case for keeping three catchers when Lucroy returns. Grade: B-


First Base


Matt Gamel - .246/.293/.348, 1 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 80 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Gamel was the starting first baseman to begin the season, but only made 21 starts before succumbing to a torn ACL. His numbers look unimpressive, but are a little deceiving and reek of small sample size. He looked comfortable at the plate, showed good baserunning skills and handled the move to first base reasonably well. It'll be interesting to see what the team does with him next year. Grade: Incomplete


Corey Hart - .254/.316/.498, 16 HR, 50 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
Corey Hart is constantly underrated by everybody. He has flaws, such as striking out a lot and possessing a walk rate that comes and goes with the wind, but he's an extra-base machine that has been a steady force in the lineup and a surprisingly good defender at first base. Hart started the year in his usual position at right field, but moved to first to replace the injured Gamel and Ishikawa as well as open up an outfield spot for Nori Aoki. The move helps his grade, as his defense in RF left something to be desired and the willingness to change positions reflects a selfless team-first approach. Grade: B-


Travis Ishikawa - .243/.313/.473, 4 HR, 9 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
Ishikawa was a surprise inclusion on the opening-day roster, but he's proved that he's worth a roster spot. He's an acceptable pinch-hitter and can field and play the outfield a little. He was briefly a starter after Gamel's injury but he belongs on the bench. Grade: C-


Brooks Conrad - .075/.136/.225, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI, 0 SB, -8 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
No player with an at-bat had a worst WAR than Brooks Conrad amongst Brewers players (including pitchers). He was horrible in every sense, and was released after 44 mind-blowingly bad plate appearances. Typing out his numbers may have made me bleed internally. At least his two home runs happened. Grade: F


Second Base


Rickie Weeks - .199/.314/.343, 8 HR, 34 R, 29 RBI, 6 SB, 82 wRC+, -0.2 WAR
One of the Brewers' best players when healthy, Weeks has strangely been pretty terrible all season. He's been one of the worst defenders in all of baseball (after being decent the last two years), strikes out at an epic clip (29% of plate appearances), and has experienced a downturn in power (.137 ISO compared to .175 career). Weeks has looked more like himself over the last month or so, and how he performs in the second half plays a big part in what the Brewers do from here on out. Grade: D-


Shortstop


Alex Gonzalez - .259/.326/.457, 4 HR, 8 R, 15 RBI, 1 SB, 112 wRC+, 0.3 WAR
Like Gamel, Gonzalez was lost for the season thanks to a torn ACL. He was a solid addition both offensively and defensively before going down. The injury was devastating for the Brewers, as they had no one in the system worthy of starting. Grade: Incomplete


Cesar Izturis - .212/.231/.271, 1 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 30 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
There's no mincing words here, Izturis is a terrible baseball player. His one calling card, defense, hasn't even been that impressive. His range has faded and his arm is weak, and considering his offensive contributions the Brewers are almost better off batting another pitcher 8th. Grade: F


Cody Ransom - .188/.299/.317, 3 HR, 12 R, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 70 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
Claimed on waivers from Arizona (only his Brewers numbers are displayed above), Ransom plays good defense, has a little power, walks a lot, and strikes out a TON (40.7% as a Brewer). But, he's better than Izturis, so there's that. Grade: D


Edwin Maysonet - .250/.297/.317, 1 HR, 7 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 79 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Maysonet made a name for himself with a Grand Slam against the Cubs on May 12th, but hasn't done much since (that home run represents all four of his RBI's). He provided a decent glove and some contact with the bat, but it wasn't enough to keep him in the majors over Izturis. Currently in AAA. Grade: D


Third Base



Aramis Ramirez - .272/.345/.475, 10 HR, 47 R, 52 RBI, 2 SB, 123 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
Ramirez has done Aramis Ramirez things with the bat. He started slow and still swings at pitches he shouldn't, but enjoyed his annual June revival and is still the good hitter he's always been. His glove has been a pleasant surprise. Once nicknamed "E5" (Edwin Encarnacion has since assumed that mantle), Ramirez has shown some nice playmaking ability and an accurate arm as well as turning in some tremendous barehand plays. His range is pretty awful, that's something that hasn't changed. Grade: B

Taylor Green - .198/.287/.358, 2 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB, 73 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
A fan favorite since last year, Green has seen fairly sparse playing time since his May call-up. He's played some third, second, and first, and shown better fielding ability than expected. He hasn't really gotten it going with the bat, and his only path to consistent playing time is at second base, where Weeks seems to be turning it around. Both of his home runs came as a pinch-hitter, which might be his primary role barring an injury. Grade: D+


Outfield


Ryan Braun (LF) - .306/.391/.599, 24 HR, 56 R, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 164 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
Ryan Braun rocks balls. I said everything I need to say here. Grade: A


Norichika Aoki (RF) - .301/.369/.450, 5 HR, 36 R, 20 RBI, 11 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
No one really knew what the Brewers had when they signed Aoki from Japan in the offseason. Most saw him as a platoon player, but he's been sooooo much more. He's been equally effective from both sides of the plate, shown surprising pull-side power, and his speed on the bases has been a tremendous boost for the offense. Defensively, he has solid range and instincts, but has a weak arm, which is why he had trouble squeezing into the center field rotation. Gamel's injury gave him an opportunity, and he's taken advantage of it. Grade: B+


Carlos Gomez (CF) - .233/.280/.423, 5 HR, 26 R, 18 RBI, 11 SB, 94 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Gomez is probably the most polarizing Brewer. His defense is outstanding, but he tends to take too many risks, leading to extra bases for opponents. He has a bit of power in his bat, and unfortunately he knows it, swinging for the fences far too often and exacerbating his contact issues. And while he's used as the right-handed version of a center field platoon, he's actually worse against left-handed pitchers for his career, and only better against them this season by the slightest of margins. But there's no denying the excitement that ensues when he gets on base, and he goes through stretches where he shows the patience that makes you think he might have some OBP skills someday.  His baserunning and defense are game changers, and if he ever cleans it up at the plate, he'll be a great player. We're still waiting. Grade: C-


Nyjer Morgan (CF) - .230/.298/.281, 2 HR, 30 R, 5 RBI, 8 SB, 64 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
A huge fan favorite last year, Morgan brought terrific outfield defense and a contact-oriented approach to a team that desperately needed it. He kept the clubhouse loose and entertained both his teammates and Brewers fans alike with his gregarious personality, and he was a huge part of a Brewers team that won a playoff series for the first time since 1982. This year could not be more different. He's constantly made bonehead plays in the outfield and on the bases, bunts too much, and has been pretty much useless while trying to hit the baseball with the baseball bat. The only reason he continues to play is the fact that his platoon partner Carlos Gomez isn't exactly dripping with baseball IQ either. On the plus side, he still seems to be a favorite in the clubhouse and he hasn't tried to fight an opposing player yet. And frankly, he's had some rotten luck this year, as his BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career average. He should play better in the second half, but so far, he's been dreadful. Grade: D-