Brewers/Cardinals series review - Well at least the bullpen was better

Results:

Friday, 4/12 Cardinals 2, Brewers 0

Saturday, 4/13 Cardinals 8, Brewers 0

Sunday, 4/14 Brewers 4, Cardinals 3

Win Probability Added stars (WPA explanation here)

April 14th, Yuniesky Betancourt doubled to right, Carlos Gomez scores (+.401 WPA)

April 14th, Jonathan Lucroy homered to left (+.385 WPA

April 14th, Carlos Beltran grounded out to shortstop (Burke Badenhop pitching) (-.166 WPA)

As you can see, all of the big plays for the Brewers happened on Sunday. That's because that's the only game they scored runs. If math is to be believed, it also bears reasoning that Sunday's game is the only game they won. The Cards clearly outplayed them in every facet during the weekend, with one lone exception; bullpen. That seems odd, but the Cardinals bullpen actually has a higher ERA than the Brewers bullpen. Most of that is thanks to Cards "closer" Mitchell Boggs, who was shaky on Friday and awful on Sunday. The Brewers relievers, on the other hand, pitched 7 2/3 innings and giving up two runs (zero earned), keeping them in two of the games. 

Friday's game was a pitching duel between Kyle Lohse and Shelby Miller, with Shelby Miller coming out on top as the Brewers' bats failing to show up. Saturday was more of the same, except Yovani Gallardo pitched poorly (as he does against St. Louis) while his counterpart Adam Wainwright threw a brilliant 4-hit shutout with a whopping 12 strikeouts. Both Miller and Wainwright were terrific, but for their part the Brewers' bats swung at too many bad pitches. No offense in baseball was getting to Wainwright on Saturday, but Miller threw a lot of pitches over the plate and the offense couldn't capitalize.

Sunday seemed like a variation on the theme, as the offense couldn't muster anything against Jamie Garcia's soft pitches (his fastball dipped as low as 84 mph during the 5th inning) and Brewers starter Marco Estrada couldn't keep the Cards' bats off the board. The offense finally woke up in the 8th against flamethrowing reliever Trevor Rosenthal, when Ryan Braun hit a two-run oppo-taco to score the first Brewers runs of the series. They added a run in the 9th to tie, and probably should have had more were it not for a series of poor management decisions that led to a popped-up bunt and a baserunning blunder. Lucroy's tater in the 10th gave them the lead, and the combo of Brandon Kintzler, Mike Gonzalez, and Burke Badenhop got through the bottom of the 10th with a big assist to the defensive shift that Carlos Beltran grounded into for the final out. 

All told, it was a pretty poor series for the Crew despite Sunday's win. The offense as a whole was pretty awful despite some solid pitching performances. The Cardinals are obviously a very good team and beating them at home is not easy, but even with how good St. Louis' pitching was it's hard to excuse how bad the offense played. But the bullpen pitching better was a good sign, and both Lohse and Estrada performances were impressive against a tough Cardinals offense. All told, there wasn't anything to be learned from this series besides the Brewers missing Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez a whole lot. That and the Cards are better at playing baseball.

MVP: Jonathan Lucroy

I almost gave this to Lohse, who threw an excellent game on Friday, but after some further research I had to go with Luc. Aside from his game-winning homer and an excellent tag to nail a runner at the plate, his pitch-framing was unbelievable. Just look at some of these called strikes (click to embiggen).

Obviously not all of it is Lucroy's framing, what with umpires being human and all, but the Brewers lead baseball in extra called strikes and we already know Lucroy is a pitch-framing wizard. Even with only one noteworthy game at the plate in the series, Lucroy's impact behind the plate was evident in every game.

LVP: Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo pitched poorly for the third start in a row. If he's trying to pitch to contact to be more efficient, it's not working. His fastball isn't moving enough at this point to get away with throwing it in the meaty part of the zone. He's still racking up high pitch counts and isn't getting enough whiffs. On the positive side, he's not had a big problem with walks and there's almost certainly some bad luck with balls in play, but he needs to pitch better. He had a tough task in facing a potent lineup on Saturday, but threw too many pitches over the plate and eventually it cost him. Three starts is a very small sample, so there's still plenty of time to turn it around.

Play of the Series: 

Luc's homer won Sunday's game, but it wouldn't have happened if it weren't for Braun's two-run shot. Extra points for going opposite field off a tough reliever. 

What's Next:

The Brewers begin a six-game homestand against the Giants and Cubs on Tuesday. San Francisco comes into town first, and are off to a good start. Milwaukee is fortunate to avoid Giants starter Madison Bumgarner, but there are some interesting pitching matchups nonetheless. Hey, we get to face Barry Zito! 

4/16 - Peralta vs. Zito

4/17 - Fiers vs. Vogelsong

4/18 - Lohse vs. Cain

Brewers By Position - Catcher

A position where the Brewers have depth?! WHAT IS THIS NEW DEVILRY?

Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy was one of the biggest surprises in baseball during the 2012 season, spraying line drives all over the field and putting up a 138 wRC+  with 12 dingers in 346 plate appearances. It might have been even more awesome had Lucroy not suffered a broken hand in a bizarre hotel-room incident involving a suitcase and his wife. Luc was thought of as a bat-first catcher coming up through the system, but was just okay in his first two seasons and if anything was more impressive defensively. Last year brought a refined approach and a better swing, striking out way less and hitting more fly balls as well as a willingness to go to the opposite field.

It's easy to point at his .338 BABIP and say "well, he got lucky, he'll regress", but that's lazy analysis. When a player sees a BABIP spike (and not a huge one, in Lucroy's case), the reaction should be finding out WHY it was high before declaring luck as the culprit. The reason his BABIP was high is he leveled out his swing and also swung at better pitches. Miraculously, his well-hit average soared by 46 points. He squared up the ball way more often, cutting his swinging strike numbers and not only hitting more fly balls but maintaining a solid line drive rate to boot. He improved as a hitter overall, and its possible that even further development is in store. He can even run the bases a little bit (for a catcher), which isn't nothing.

Defensively, Lucroy is rock solid. His mediocre throwing arm will prevent him from being Molina-level behind the plate, he's pretty much a wizard in every other form of catcher defense. His pitch-framing is already at a legendary status, ranking fourth in baseball in this pitch-framing study despite only playing for two partial years at the time (the study covered six seasons). He's also excellent at blocking pitches and pitchers seem to enjoy working with him (except for Randy Wolf, but screw him). All told, Luc is quickly developing into the total package.
.285/.340/.430, 16 HR, 4 SB

                                                                                                    my god


Martin Maldonado

Unlike Lucroy, Maldonado is already an elite defender. Also unlike Luc, Maldonado's bat leaves a little something to be desired. Called upon as the starting catcher while Luc was sidelined with the hand injury, Martin got off to a great start at the plate while providing superb defensive chops behind it. All told, his .266/.321/.408 line was nothing to sneeze at, but going forward it's more likely he settles around the .220-ish hitter he was in the minors. He has solid power and has some plate discipline, which is really all you can ask of a backup. Defensively, you name it, he's got it. Excellent pitch-framer, laser throwing arm, pitchers love him. Despite the limited bat, he's probably good enough overall as a player to start for a major league team at some point.
.215/.285/.340, 7 HR, 0 SB

Blake Lalli
A former Cub farmhand, Lalli was brought in on a minor-league deal and will serve as the team's third catcher, probably starting for AAA Nashville. He's raised some eyebrows by hitting well during Spring Training, but it's Spring Training so the first part of this sentence is now worthless. He's acceptable defensively and can hit a tiny bit, but has little power. If he sees time in the majors it will be because of injury.
.230/.275/.300, 0 HR, 0 SB

Jonathan Lucroy and contact

Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy has been an offensive force in 2012, and is on the list of the most improved players in the National League. He's improved greatly in every offensive category and could have made a push for the All-Star game had he not suffered a hand injury that cost him two months. But while he was considered a good offensive catcher coming up through the minors, no one thought he would be this good. Most have written him off as a small sample size wonder or a BABIP fluke, and while his BABIP is high for someone who's clearly not a speedster, there is evidence that Lucroy has made some real improvements to his offensive game.

I went into this study assuming to find that Lucroy had drastically improved his plate discipline. I knew he had cut down on his strikeouts, and it seemed that he had been taking more walks and being more selective at the plate. But it wasn't as much as I had thought. Lucroy's walk rate is up (6.8%, up from 6.2% in his first two years), but just barely. His plate discipline numbers don't suggest a major difference either. While is is seeing a few less strikes overall (as well as first-pitch strikes), he's swinging at about the same number of pitches outside the zone, and his overall swing percentage is about the same as his career norms. What is substantially different though, is his rate of contact. 

                                                        "Beast mode" should probably be renamed "Lucroy mode".

In his first two years in the majors, Lucroy possessed a swinging strike rate of about 7%, with a contact rates 85.2% and 83.7%. 2012 has been a different story. He's lowered his swinging strike rate to 5.1% and his contact rate has risen to 88.9% - not a small difference. Lucroy's been more selective, but only marginally so. It's not that Lucroy is swinging at better pitches, more that Lucroy is just hitting everything. When he swings at pitches outside the zone, he's making contact 79.1% (!) of the time, well up from his previous rates. As you would expect with an improved contact rate, his strikeout rate has plummeted. During his first year, Lucroy kept the K's in check, striking out in 14.8% of his plate appearances. But with a larger sample in 2011 (his first full season), he whiffed 21.2% of the time, a surprising number since he only struck out in 13.8% in his PA's in his minor league career. It seemed that either pitchers had figured him out, or he was pressing due to being pitched around as he was often batting in the 8th spot in the order, batting in front of the pitcher. Whatever the problem was, he clearly fixed it. He's striking out just 12.4% of the time, a number you generally see from spray-hitting speedsters, not a catcher.

So is his performance sustainable? I think so. He made a lot of contact coming up through the system, and his willingness to hit the ball to the opposite field makes him tough to pitch to. While his BABIP will likely come down a bit, good hitters tend to have higher BABIP's due to being able to hit the ball where it's pitched, something Lucroy clearly does well. And I haven't even mentioned his increase in power, which is even more evidence of his maturation as a hitter. If he keeps this up, the five-year deal the Brewers gave him in the off-season will be a steal. If he continues to improve, we'll be watching one of the best catchers in the major leagues for years to come. 

Lucroy is back, Kottaras DFA'd, Jim Henderson blah, blah, blah

The Brewers reinstated catcher Jonathan Lucroy from the disabled list, designating backup catcher George Kottaras for assignment. The team has 10 days to decide to trade him, release him, or hope he accepts a minor league assignment. A trade is the most likely outcome, as a proven backup catcher is something many playoff contenders could use.

                                                  Welcome back, Luc. May the force be with you.

The team also sent IF Jeff Bianchi back to AAA after an uninspiring debut, replacing him with RHP Jim Henderson. The 29 year old Henderson is making his major league debut after putting up some impressive number for AAA Nashville (35 appearances, 48 IP, 56 K, 1.21 WHIP, 1.69 ERA). Despite Henderson's numbers, it's hard to get too excited considering his unsightly 4.13 BB/9 and his flyball profile. The team is currently carrying 13 pitchers, which is pretty ludicrous. Hopefully a trade or two will reduce that number.

First half grades - hitters

After a disappointing first half, the Brewers enter the All-Star break with a 40-45 record, 8 games behind first place Pittsburgh. Injuries and poor relief pitching have taken their toll, shadowing an above-average offense and solid starting pitching. As the article's title suggests, I will delve more into the individual performances of everyone who has donned a Brewer uniform this season. Today I focused on the offense, sometime later this week I'll look at the pitchers. wRC+ and WAR stats are accurate through Saturday's games, while the other numbers are accurate through Sunday (Fangraphs doesn't update during the day, ESPN does).

Catcher


Jonathan Lucroy - .345/.387/.583 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 5 HR, 17 R, 30 RBI, 2 SB, 163 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
After a solid sophomore campaign in 2011, Lucroy came roaring out of the gates in 2012, establishing himself as one of the best catchers in the National League before breaking his hand in a freak hotel room accident. A few aspects of Lucroy's start are unsustainable (including a .519 average with RISP and a .381 BABIP), but his HR/FB and LD rates are consistent with last year's and he's cut down on his strikeouts considerably. As far as defense goes, he's good at blocking pitches in the dirt as well as pitch-framing, but his throwing arm comes and goes. He should be back shortly after the All-Star break. Grade: A


George Kottaras - .228/.430/392, 3 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 138 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
At this point, most Brewer fans know what Kottaras is; good backup catcher. He walks a lot, has some power, is a decent pinch-hitter, and has a questionable glove. He has improved defensively since joining the Brewers in 2010, but other than blocking pitches, is below average in every other defensive category (his arm sucks). But as far as backups go, he's an extremely valuable asset. He was very hot at the plate to start the season, but has pretty much done George Kottaras things ever since. Grade: C+


Martin Maldonado - .245/.303/.391, 5 HR, 11 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 97 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Maldonado was called up when Lucroy went down, and has not disappointed. He's an elite defensive catcher with a little pop, and despite uninspiring minor league numbers, hasn't appeared overmatched at the plate. It doesn't hurt that he's come up with some big hits late in games. He's made a good case for keeping three catchers when Lucroy returns. Grade: B-


First Base


Matt Gamel - .246/.293/.348, 1 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 80 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Gamel was the starting first baseman to begin the season, but only made 21 starts before succumbing to a torn ACL. His numbers look unimpressive, but are a little deceiving and reek of small sample size. He looked comfortable at the plate, showed good baserunning skills and handled the move to first base reasonably well. It'll be interesting to see what the team does with him next year. Grade: Incomplete


Corey Hart - .254/.316/.498, 16 HR, 50 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
Corey Hart is constantly underrated by everybody. He has flaws, such as striking out a lot and possessing a walk rate that comes and goes with the wind, but he's an extra-base machine that has been a steady force in the lineup and a surprisingly good defender at first base. Hart started the year in his usual position at right field, but moved to first to replace the injured Gamel and Ishikawa as well as open up an outfield spot for Nori Aoki. The move helps his grade, as his defense in RF left something to be desired and the willingness to change positions reflects a selfless team-first approach. Grade: B-


Travis Ishikawa - .243/.313/.473, 4 HR, 9 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
Ishikawa was a surprise inclusion on the opening-day roster, but he's proved that he's worth a roster spot. He's an acceptable pinch-hitter and can field and play the outfield a little. He was briefly a starter after Gamel's injury but he belongs on the bench. Grade: C-


Brooks Conrad - .075/.136/.225, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI, 0 SB, -8 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
No player with an at-bat had a worst WAR than Brooks Conrad amongst Brewers players (including pitchers). He was horrible in every sense, and was released after 44 mind-blowingly bad plate appearances. Typing out his numbers may have made me bleed internally. At least his two home runs happened. Grade: F


Second Base


Rickie Weeks - .199/.314/.343, 8 HR, 34 R, 29 RBI, 6 SB, 82 wRC+, -0.2 WAR
One of the Brewers' best players when healthy, Weeks has strangely been pretty terrible all season. He's been one of the worst defenders in all of baseball (after being decent the last two years), strikes out at an epic clip (29% of plate appearances), and has experienced a downturn in power (.137 ISO compared to .175 career). Weeks has looked more like himself over the last month or so, and how he performs in the second half plays a big part in what the Brewers do from here on out. Grade: D-


Shortstop


Alex Gonzalez - .259/.326/.457, 4 HR, 8 R, 15 RBI, 1 SB, 112 wRC+, 0.3 WAR
Like Gamel, Gonzalez was lost for the season thanks to a torn ACL. He was a solid addition both offensively and defensively before going down. The injury was devastating for the Brewers, as they had no one in the system worthy of starting. Grade: Incomplete


Cesar Izturis - .212/.231/.271, 1 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 30 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
There's no mincing words here, Izturis is a terrible baseball player. His one calling card, defense, hasn't even been that impressive. His range has faded and his arm is weak, and considering his offensive contributions the Brewers are almost better off batting another pitcher 8th. Grade: F


Cody Ransom - .188/.299/.317, 3 HR, 12 R, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 70 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
Claimed on waivers from Arizona (only his Brewers numbers are displayed above), Ransom plays good defense, has a little power, walks a lot, and strikes out a TON (40.7% as a Brewer). But, he's better than Izturis, so there's that. Grade: D


Edwin Maysonet - .250/.297/.317, 1 HR, 7 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 79 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Maysonet made a name for himself with a Grand Slam against the Cubs on May 12th, but hasn't done much since (that home run represents all four of his RBI's). He provided a decent glove and some contact with the bat, but it wasn't enough to keep him in the majors over Izturis. Currently in AAA. Grade: D


Third Base



Aramis Ramirez - .272/.345/.475, 10 HR, 47 R, 52 RBI, 2 SB, 123 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
Ramirez has done Aramis Ramirez things with the bat. He started slow and still swings at pitches he shouldn't, but enjoyed his annual June revival and is still the good hitter he's always been. His glove has been a pleasant surprise. Once nicknamed "E5" (Edwin Encarnacion has since assumed that mantle), Ramirez has shown some nice playmaking ability and an accurate arm as well as turning in some tremendous barehand plays. His range is pretty awful, that's something that hasn't changed. Grade: B

Taylor Green - .198/.287/.358, 2 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB, 73 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
A fan favorite since last year, Green has seen fairly sparse playing time since his May call-up. He's played some third, second, and first, and shown better fielding ability than expected. He hasn't really gotten it going with the bat, and his only path to consistent playing time is at second base, where Weeks seems to be turning it around. Both of his home runs came as a pinch-hitter, which might be his primary role barring an injury. Grade: D+


Outfield


Ryan Braun (LF) - .306/.391/.599, 24 HR, 56 R, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 164 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
Ryan Braun rocks balls. I said everything I need to say here. Grade: A


Norichika Aoki (RF) - .301/.369/.450, 5 HR, 36 R, 20 RBI, 11 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
No one really knew what the Brewers had when they signed Aoki from Japan in the offseason. Most saw him as a platoon player, but he's been sooooo much more. He's been equally effective from both sides of the plate, shown surprising pull-side power, and his speed on the bases has been a tremendous boost for the offense. Defensively, he has solid range and instincts, but has a weak arm, which is why he had trouble squeezing into the center field rotation. Gamel's injury gave him an opportunity, and he's taken advantage of it. Grade: B+


Carlos Gomez (CF) - .233/.280/.423, 5 HR, 26 R, 18 RBI, 11 SB, 94 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Gomez is probably the most polarizing Brewer. His defense is outstanding, but he tends to take too many risks, leading to extra bases for opponents. He has a bit of power in his bat, and unfortunately he knows it, swinging for the fences far too often and exacerbating his contact issues. And while he's used as the right-handed version of a center field platoon, he's actually worse against left-handed pitchers for his career, and only better against them this season by the slightest of margins. But there's no denying the excitement that ensues when he gets on base, and he goes through stretches where he shows the patience that makes you think he might have some OBP skills someday.  His baserunning and defense are game changers, and if he ever cleans it up at the plate, he'll be a great player. We're still waiting. Grade: C-


Nyjer Morgan (CF) - .230/.298/.281, 2 HR, 30 R, 5 RBI, 8 SB, 64 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
A huge fan favorite last year, Morgan brought terrific outfield defense and a contact-oriented approach to a team that desperately needed it. He kept the clubhouse loose and entertained both his teammates and Brewers fans alike with his gregarious personality, and he was a huge part of a Brewers team that won a playoff series for the first time since 1982. This year could not be more different. He's constantly made bonehead plays in the outfield and on the bases, bunts too much, and has been pretty much useless while trying to hit the baseball with the baseball bat. The only reason he continues to play is the fact that his platoon partner Carlos Gomez isn't exactly dripping with baseball IQ either. On the plus side, he still seems to be a favorite in the clubhouse and he hasn't tried to fight an opposing player yet. And frankly, he's had some rotten luck this year, as his BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career average. He should play better in the second half, but so far, he's been dreadful. Grade: D-