Brewers/Pirates series review - moar runz

Results:
Monday, 4/29 Brewers 10, Pirates 4
Tuesday, 4/30 Brewers 12, Pirates 8
Wednesday, 5/1 Pirates 6, Brewers 4

Win Probability Stars
4/30 Yuniesky Betancourt homered to right (+.189 WPA)
4/30 Martin Maldonado doubled to left, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez scored (+.175 WPA)
4/30 Jean Segura homered to right center (+.169 WPA)

The Pittsburgh Pirates played baseball games in Milwaukee, which means the Pittsburgh Pirates lost baseball games. Even with Wednesday's loss, the Brewers are a stunning 46-8 against the Pirates at Miller Park. Someday, the Pirates will be better than the Brewers. Someday, the Pirates will be able to win games at Miller Park. But that day isn't here yet; the Pirates still look like a AAA team whenever they set foot into the Dairy State. Their normally solid pitching was awful, as a (sort of) watered-down Brewers offense hung 24 runs (with 10 dingers) on them in three games

Pittsburgh actually scored a fair amount of runs in this series, and left fielder Starling Marte proved to be a significant thorn in the Brewers' side. He hit big home runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, including one off a 1-1 pitch from John Axford that wasn't even in the strike zone. It's hard to take much of the rest of their offense seriously, seeing as it's composed of a bunch of defense-first guys or platoon players, but the Pirates might have something in Marte and that McCutchen guy.

The Brewers might also have something in Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, who went a combined 11-22 with four walks and four homers in the series. It's hard to put into words how great those two have been, providing tremendous offensive production and elite defensive positions. The fact that the Brewers are over .500 without Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart is pretty incredible, and both Gomez and Segura are huge reasons for that. Both will regress at some point, but they've both been pretty fun to watch at the plate while providing excellent defense.

I suppose this is the part of the review where I should mention Yuniesky Betancourt (who had a big series of his own), but I feel like his production is some elaborate hoax. He has not changed one bit at the plate, yet somehow is on pace for 44 home runs and 137 RBI's. He's also played remarkably not-awful defense, which probably has something to do with playing at positions that are not shortstop. There's really no analysis to be given, because there's no explanation. Smoke 'em while you got 'em, I guess.

MVP: Carlos Gomez

I've already mentioned how good Gomez, Segura, and Betancourt were in this series, but Gomez takes the cake. Despite Carlos' career OBP south of .300, it's gotten to the point where it seems like some sort of witchcraft on the opposing pitcher's part when Gomez makes an out. I expected his power surge from last year to continue, but he's been a much better hitter overall at the plate, spraying the ball all over the field.

There's enough of a track record to suggest that Carlos Gomez will turn back into Carlos Gomez at some point, but either way that contract extension was a steal.

LVP: John Axford

This was a tough pick seeing as his meltdown on Wednesday wasn't all his fault (an infield hit and an error contributed to two of the runs), but it's the only negative in the series that sticks out. His homer problem doesn't appear to be going away. Honorable mention to Marco Estrada, who pitched poorly on Tuesday night but opposing starter James McDonald was hilariously worse.

Play of the Series: Rickie Weeks' three-run homer

It was a big moment in a close and exciting game, and it felt especially significant for the slumping Weeks. Whether it turns out to be a "slump-buster" or not, it's hard not to be happy for Weeks for producing in a big spot after failing in similar situations for most of the season.

What's Next

The Brewers host a four-game series against the evil baby-eating Cardinals, who come into town after winning two of three against the Cincinnati Reds. Considering the Cardinals are really good, splitting the series would be something of a small victory. The Brewers will have to face Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller, which sucks, but they will also get Aramis Ramirez back, which is awesome. Brewers fans can only hope that Mitchell Boggs will figure prominently into this series.

Probable starters
5/2 Westbrook vs. Peralta
5/3 Miller vs. Lohse
5/4 Wainwright vs. Gallardo
5/5 Garcia vs. Estrada

Brewers By Position - Second Base

We continue our Brewers forecast by looking at a position that's not first base. Thank God I don't have to write about first base again.

Rickie Weeks

Weeks was unspeakably bad for about the first half of the 2012 season, both in the field and at the plate. He was easily one of the worst players if not the worst player in baseball for the first couple months. Fortunately, a baseball season is comprised of two halves and Rickie righted the ship somewhere around mid-June and looked like his old self again. At the end of the year, he boasted (?) a wRC+ of 100, meaning after all was said and done he managed to be an average hitter. Like Hart, we have a pretty good understanding of what Weeks is. Lots of walks and strikeouts, good power, some steals, and defense that fluctuates between below average and very bad. He's often labeled as "injury-prone", but played 160 games in 2010 and 157 in 2012, sandwiching a fluke ankle injury that limited him to 118 games in 2011. Despite his flaws he's one of the best second basemen in the National League.
.245/.350/.450, 22 HR, 15 SB

Scooter Gennett

He can fly LOOK OUT NL CENTRAL

Gennett is one of the Brewers' "top" "prospects", but with Weeks entrenched at the pivot it seems highly unlikely that we see much of Gennett short of a September cameo. Gennett is a hit-first second baseman that needs work defensively. Despite his small (5'10, 165) stature, Gennett could grow into some power which would nicely supplement his already present hit tool. If that doesn't happen, he's basically an empty-average hitter who doesn't walk. Think Ryan Theriot. Then try not to cry.
.275/.310/.350, 1 HR, 2 SB

Also featuring;

Taylor Green 

Bobby Crosby

Alex Gonzalez

Donnie Murphy

Welp. Green had a couple web gem-type moments at second last year but ideally should only be an emergency option. He's not exactly a natural there. Crosby and Murphy are both awful bats that can field, but still, yuck. Gonzalez has never played second but I don't really doubt his fielding potential there. If any of these guys see significant time at second then it means the world has ended. 

News and notes; Weeks is back, mystery strike zone in Houston, Fiers in Coors

Rickie Weeks is back
Weeks was comically bad to start the season, slashing a .153/.286/.288 line through May 29th and playing terrible defense while striking out at a prolific clip. Weeks seemed lost at the plate and in the field, was removed from the leadoff role, and fans began to wonder if Weeks was done as a player. However, since May 30th, Weeks has hit .263 with seven home runs while maintaining his stellar walk rate. His defense has also improved and he's added five steals in that time frame. It appears that his apocalyptic early season performance was more of a BABIP fluke (.189 BABIP in May) along with a propensity to stare at strike three a little too much. Manager Ron Roenicke moved Weeks back up in the order to the #2 spot on Sunday, a sign that the team has regained confidence in Weeks. Fans should do the same.

Houston's goofy strike zone
The Brewers are coming off an uninspiring weekend in Houston, where they lost two of three to a team that hadn't won a series since the Reagan administration. The bullpen didn't do the team any favors, but the offense in particular looked out of sorts against an awful Houston rotation. However, by looking at the called strike zones, it's not hard to see why.

Bud Norris

Dallas Keuchel

Jordan Lyles

These are just the called strike zones from the Houston starters, and Houston's relievers benefited from more of the same. The only thing I can add about this is that the strike zone all weekend was just bizarre. On the Milwaukee side only Marco Estrada seemed to get the same treatment (which he did nothing with), and Jordan Lyles is the only Houston starter that didn't get a primarily beneficial zone. I don't think that the home plate umpires were favoring Houston, but many hitters seemed to have no idea what was a ball or strike, and clearly neither did the umpires. So while Corey Hart, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun looked bad during the series, this might help explain why. Oh, and here's Yovani Gallardo's called strike zone.

Somehow I don't think home plate umpire David Rackley will be getting a Christmas card from Yo.

Mike Fiers pitching in Coors
The Brewers start a series in Denver tonight, and despite how horrible the Rockies are as a team, this is an important test for rookie hurler Mike Fiers. Despite an unimpressive repertoire, Fiers has blown through the competition thus far to the tune of a 1.80 ERA with a 2.22 FIP and a 5.00 K/BB ratio. Fiers was outstanding in his last start against the Reds, pitching eight innings of one-run ball and took a perfect game into the seventh inning. That start was particularly notable because it's the first time he'd faced an opponent for the second time. Monday night's game in Colorado will prove a stiffer test.

Coors is and always has been an extreme hitters park in every sense of the word, as the thin air in Denver encourages home runs makes it harder to field sharp grounders and line drives. It also keeps breaking balls from breaking (curves and sliders tend to break 25% less than they do at sea level), which might negate Fiers' looping curveball and turn him strictly into a fastball-changeup pitcher - a dangerous proposition for a guy with a 31% ground ball rate. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fiers favor his cutter a little more in this game, and he may survive simply because the Rockies haven't seen him yet. Either way, it will probably take a bit more luck for Fiers to escape Coors unscathed.

The Pirates regression train hits Miller Park

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a hot story halfway through the 2012 baseball season, and their sparkiling 48-37 record coming into Friday night's game was expected by precisely no one. Their run prevention is outstanding, as they treat opposing offenses the same way Walter Sobchak treats German nihilists. Their offense is another story, as it's basically a pile of hot garbage outside of the solid Neil Walker and fan-freakin'-tastic Andrew McCutchen. I suppose Pedro Alvarez isn't terrible, but he's kind of like a poor man's Adam Dunn at this point, if Dunn were shorter and had a better tan.

                                          Pirates players celebrating someone getting on base.

There are many regression candidates on the Pirates, and by many I mean almost the entire pitching staff. James McDonald is a fine young pitcher, but his batting average allowed is just .194 and that's not something that just happens. And for an extreme fly ball pitcher, his home runs allowed is stupidly low (Ryan Braun spanked one out against him tonight). Jeff Karstens reeks of Dave Bush to me, and AJ Burnett hasn't come even close to meeting his blow-up quota. Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard kind of suck. And then there's the bullpen, featuring gimmicky guys (Tony Watson and Jared Hughes), and veterans who are greatly out-pitching their peripherals as well as their career norms (Resop, Slaten, Grilli, Cruz, even Hanrahan).

So no, I don't believe in the First Place Pirates. And the conductor of the regression train is manager Clint Hurdle, who did one of the dumbest things I've ever seen tonight. Which is really something considering how many stupid things are done by managers daily. It was the defining moment in one of the most entertaining baseball games this season.

                                        Pictured: Clint Hurdle chewing styrofoam because DERP.

The situation; tie game, 8th inning, runners on second and third, two out. Rickie Weeks at the plate. Tony Watson pitching. Weeks has been better over the last month or so, but still sports a .200 batting average along with a titanic 100 strikeouts. What should Hurdle do? NOTHING. Have Watson (I'll get to him in a second) pitch to Weeks. What does Hurdle do? He has Watson intentionally walk him. I'll repeat rephrase that. HE INTENTIONALLY WALKS A .200 HITTER. Predictably, the tiring Watson threw a beach ball to Cody Ransom five pitches later, and predictably Ransom sent it to Argentina. Grand Slam, Pirates go one to lose by 3. I can fathom walking Joey Votto to get to a bad hitter (which Ransom is). But not a hitter with worse numbers than Ransom himself.

                                             Cody Ransom, thanking Clint Hurdle for giving him the opportunity.

There's so many things that went wrong here. The first is the fact that Watson was even in the game. Lefty Nyjer Morgan was supposed to lead off the inning for the Brewers, but was pinch-hit for by righty Carlos Gomez with the left-handed pitcher Watson entering the game. Hurdle then left Watson in to face seven consecutive righties. Now, Watson isn't a LOOGY, and actually has reverse platoon splits. But the Brewers crush lefties as a team, and Watson isn't even very good to begin with. Despite having better pitchers in the bullpen, Hurdle stuck with Watson for a whopping 35 pitches and was rewarded with a four-run deficit. Why not Jason Grilli? Or Juan Cruz? Or heaven forbid, Joel Hanrahan in a high-pressure situation? And finally, why intentionally walk anyone? There's two outs. You don't need a double play. Low-contact hitter at the plate. PITCH TO HIM. Hurdle did what a stupid manager does.

Now, the Pirates may still finish ahead of the Brewers. They may even make the playoffs. But holy cow, will their playoff opponent be excited to face them.

First half grades - hitters

After a disappointing first half, the Brewers enter the All-Star break with a 40-45 record, 8 games behind first place Pittsburgh. Injuries and poor relief pitching have taken their toll, shadowing an above-average offense and solid starting pitching. As the article's title suggests, I will delve more into the individual performances of everyone who has donned a Brewer uniform this season. Today I focused on the offense, sometime later this week I'll look at the pitchers. wRC+ and WAR stats are accurate through Saturday's games, while the other numbers are accurate through Sunday (Fangraphs doesn't update during the day, ESPN does).

Catcher


Jonathan Lucroy - .345/.387/.583 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 5 HR, 17 R, 30 RBI, 2 SB, 163 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
After a solid sophomore campaign in 2011, Lucroy came roaring out of the gates in 2012, establishing himself as one of the best catchers in the National League before breaking his hand in a freak hotel room accident. A few aspects of Lucroy's start are unsustainable (including a .519 average with RISP and a .381 BABIP), but his HR/FB and LD rates are consistent with last year's and he's cut down on his strikeouts considerably. As far as defense goes, he's good at blocking pitches in the dirt as well as pitch-framing, but his throwing arm comes and goes. He should be back shortly after the All-Star break. Grade: A


George Kottaras - .228/.430/392, 3 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 138 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
At this point, most Brewer fans know what Kottaras is; good backup catcher. He walks a lot, has some power, is a decent pinch-hitter, and has a questionable glove. He has improved defensively since joining the Brewers in 2010, but other than blocking pitches, is below average in every other defensive category (his arm sucks). But as far as backups go, he's an extremely valuable asset. He was very hot at the plate to start the season, but has pretty much done George Kottaras things ever since. Grade: C+


Martin Maldonado - .245/.303/.391, 5 HR, 11 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 97 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Maldonado was called up when Lucroy went down, and has not disappointed. He's an elite defensive catcher with a little pop, and despite uninspiring minor league numbers, hasn't appeared overmatched at the plate. It doesn't hurt that he's come up with some big hits late in games. He's made a good case for keeping three catchers when Lucroy returns. Grade: B-


First Base


Matt Gamel - .246/.293/.348, 1 HR, 10 R, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 80 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Gamel was the starting first baseman to begin the season, but only made 21 starts before succumbing to a torn ACL. His numbers look unimpressive, but are a little deceiving and reek of small sample size. He looked comfortable at the plate, showed good baserunning skills and handled the move to first base reasonably well. It'll be interesting to see what the team does with him next year. Grade: Incomplete


Corey Hart - .254/.316/.498, 16 HR, 50 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
Corey Hart is constantly underrated by everybody. He has flaws, such as striking out a lot and possessing a walk rate that comes and goes with the wind, but he's an extra-base machine that has been a steady force in the lineup and a surprisingly good defender at first base. Hart started the year in his usual position at right field, but moved to first to replace the injured Gamel and Ishikawa as well as open up an outfield spot for Nori Aoki. The move helps his grade, as his defense in RF left something to be desired and the willingness to change positions reflects a selfless team-first approach. Grade: B-


Travis Ishikawa - .243/.313/.473, 4 HR, 9 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB, 102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
Ishikawa was a surprise inclusion on the opening-day roster, but he's proved that he's worth a roster spot. He's an acceptable pinch-hitter and can field and play the outfield a little. He was briefly a starter after Gamel's injury but he belongs on the bench. Grade: C-


Brooks Conrad - .075/.136/.225, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI, 0 SB, -8 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
No player with an at-bat had a worst WAR than Brooks Conrad amongst Brewers players (including pitchers). He was horrible in every sense, and was released after 44 mind-blowingly bad plate appearances. Typing out his numbers may have made me bleed internally. At least his two home runs happened. Grade: F


Second Base


Rickie Weeks - .199/.314/.343, 8 HR, 34 R, 29 RBI, 6 SB, 82 wRC+, -0.2 WAR
One of the Brewers' best players when healthy, Weeks has strangely been pretty terrible all season. He's been one of the worst defenders in all of baseball (after being decent the last two years), strikes out at an epic clip (29% of plate appearances), and has experienced a downturn in power (.137 ISO compared to .175 career). Weeks has looked more like himself over the last month or so, and how he performs in the second half plays a big part in what the Brewers do from here on out. Grade: D-


Shortstop


Alex Gonzalez - .259/.326/.457, 4 HR, 8 R, 15 RBI, 1 SB, 112 wRC+, 0.3 WAR
Like Gamel, Gonzalez was lost for the season thanks to a torn ACL. He was a solid addition both offensively and defensively before going down. The injury was devastating for the Brewers, as they had no one in the system worthy of starting. Grade: Incomplete


Cesar Izturis - .212/.231/.271, 1 HR, 4 R, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 30 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
There's no mincing words here, Izturis is a terrible baseball player. His one calling card, defense, hasn't even been that impressive. His range has faded and his arm is weak, and considering his offensive contributions the Brewers are almost better off batting another pitcher 8th. Grade: F


Cody Ransom - .188/.299/.317, 3 HR, 12 R, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 70 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
Claimed on waivers from Arizona (only his Brewers numbers are displayed above), Ransom plays good defense, has a little power, walks a lot, and strikes out a TON (40.7% as a Brewer). But, he's better than Izturis, so there's that. Grade: D


Edwin Maysonet - .250/.297/.317, 1 HR, 7 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 79 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Maysonet made a name for himself with a Grand Slam against the Cubs on May 12th, but hasn't done much since (that home run represents all four of his RBI's). He provided a decent glove and some contact with the bat, but it wasn't enough to keep him in the majors over Izturis. Currently in AAA. Grade: D


Third Base



Aramis Ramirez - .272/.345/.475, 10 HR, 47 R, 52 RBI, 2 SB, 123 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
Ramirez has done Aramis Ramirez things with the bat. He started slow and still swings at pitches he shouldn't, but enjoyed his annual June revival and is still the good hitter he's always been. His glove has been a pleasant surprise. Once nicknamed "E5" (Edwin Encarnacion has since assumed that mantle), Ramirez has shown some nice playmaking ability and an accurate arm as well as turning in some tremendous barehand plays. His range is pretty awful, that's something that hasn't changed. Grade: B

Taylor Green - .198/.287/.358, 2 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB, 73 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
A fan favorite since last year, Green has seen fairly sparse playing time since his May call-up. He's played some third, second, and first, and shown better fielding ability than expected. He hasn't really gotten it going with the bat, and his only path to consistent playing time is at second base, where Weeks seems to be turning it around. Both of his home runs came as a pinch-hitter, which might be his primary role barring an injury. Grade: D+


Outfield


Ryan Braun (LF) - .306/.391/.599, 24 HR, 56 R, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 164 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
Ryan Braun rocks balls. I said everything I need to say here. Grade: A


Norichika Aoki (RF) - .301/.369/.450, 5 HR, 36 R, 20 RBI, 11 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
No one really knew what the Brewers had when they signed Aoki from Japan in the offseason. Most saw him as a platoon player, but he's been sooooo much more. He's been equally effective from both sides of the plate, shown surprising pull-side power, and his speed on the bases has been a tremendous boost for the offense. Defensively, he has solid range and instincts, but has a weak arm, which is why he had trouble squeezing into the center field rotation. Gamel's injury gave him an opportunity, and he's taken advantage of it. Grade: B+


Carlos Gomez (CF) - .233/.280/.423, 5 HR, 26 R, 18 RBI, 11 SB, 94 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Gomez is probably the most polarizing Brewer. His defense is outstanding, but he tends to take too many risks, leading to extra bases for opponents. He has a bit of power in his bat, and unfortunately he knows it, swinging for the fences far too often and exacerbating his contact issues. And while he's used as the right-handed version of a center field platoon, he's actually worse against left-handed pitchers for his career, and only better against them this season by the slightest of margins. But there's no denying the excitement that ensues when he gets on base, and he goes through stretches where he shows the patience that makes you think he might have some OBP skills someday.  His baserunning and defense are game changers, and if he ever cleans it up at the plate, he'll be a great player. We're still waiting. Grade: C-


Nyjer Morgan (CF) - .230/.298/.281, 2 HR, 30 R, 5 RBI, 8 SB, 64 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
A huge fan favorite last year, Morgan brought terrific outfield defense and a contact-oriented approach to a team that desperately needed it. He kept the clubhouse loose and entertained both his teammates and Brewers fans alike with his gregarious personality, and he was a huge part of a Brewers team that won a playoff series for the first time since 1982. This year could not be more different. He's constantly made bonehead plays in the outfield and on the bases, bunts too much, and has been pretty much useless while trying to hit the baseball with the baseball bat. The only reason he continues to play is the fact that his platoon partner Carlos Gomez isn't exactly dripping with baseball IQ either. On the plus side, he still seems to be a favorite in the clubhouse and he hasn't tried to fight an opposing player yet. And frankly, he's had some rotten luck this year, as his BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career average. He should play better in the second half, but so far, he's been dreadful. Grade: D-