Brewers/Pirates series review - moar runz

Results:
Monday, 4/29 Brewers 10, Pirates 4
Tuesday, 4/30 Brewers 12, Pirates 8
Wednesday, 5/1 Pirates 6, Brewers 4

Win Probability Stars
4/30 Yuniesky Betancourt homered to right (+.189 WPA)
4/30 Martin Maldonado doubled to left, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez scored (+.175 WPA)
4/30 Jean Segura homered to right center (+.169 WPA)

The Pittsburgh Pirates played baseball games in Milwaukee, which means the Pittsburgh Pirates lost baseball games. Even with Wednesday's loss, the Brewers are a stunning 46-8 against the Pirates at Miller Park. Someday, the Pirates will be better than the Brewers. Someday, the Pirates will be able to win games at Miller Park. But that day isn't here yet; the Pirates still look like a AAA team whenever they set foot into the Dairy State. Their normally solid pitching was awful, as a (sort of) watered-down Brewers offense hung 24 runs (with 10 dingers) on them in three games

Pittsburgh actually scored a fair amount of runs in this series, and left fielder Starling Marte proved to be a significant thorn in the Brewers' side. He hit big home runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, including one off a 1-1 pitch from John Axford that wasn't even in the strike zone. It's hard to take much of the rest of their offense seriously, seeing as it's composed of a bunch of defense-first guys or platoon players, but the Pirates might have something in Marte and that McCutchen guy.

The Brewers might also have something in Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, who went a combined 11-22 with four walks and four homers in the series. It's hard to put into words how great those two have been, providing tremendous offensive production and elite defensive positions. The fact that the Brewers are over .500 without Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart is pretty incredible, and both Gomez and Segura are huge reasons for that. Both will regress at some point, but they've both been pretty fun to watch at the plate while providing excellent defense.

I suppose this is the part of the review where I should mention Yuniesky Betancourt (who had a big series of his own), but I feel like his production is some elaborate hoax. He has not changed one bit at the plate, yet somehow is on pace for 44 home runs and 137 RBI's. He's also played remarkably not-awful defense, which probably has something to do with playing at positions that are not shortstop. There's really no analysis to be given, because there's no explanation. Smoke 'em while you got 'em, I guess.

MVP: Carlos Gomez

I've already mentioned how good Gomez, Segura, and Betancourt were in this series, but Gomez takes the cake. Despite Carlos' career OBP south of .300, it's gotten to the point where it seems like some sort of witchcraft on the opposing pitcher's part when Gomez makes an out. I expected his power surge from last year to continue, but he's been a much better hitter overall at the plate, spraying the ball all over the field.

There's enough of a track record to suggest that Carlos Gomez will turn back into Carlos Gomez at some point, but either way that contract extension was a steal.

LVP: John Axford

This was a tough pick seeing as his meltdown on Wednesday wasn't all his fault (an infield hit and an error contributed to two of the runs), but it's the only negative in the series that sticks out. His homer problem doesn't appear to be going away. Honorable mention to Marco Estrada, who pitched poorly on Tuesday night but opposing starter James McDonald was hilariously worse.

Play of the Series: Rickie Weeks' three-run homer

It was a big moment in a close and exciting game, and it felt especially significant for the slumping Weeks. Whether it turns out to be a "slump-buster" or not, it's hard not to be happy for Weeks for producing in a big spot after failing in similar situations for most of the season.

What's Next

The Brewers host a four-game series against the evil baby-eating Cardinals, who come into town after winning two of three against the Cincinnati Reds. Considering the Cardinals are really good, splitting the series would be something of a small victory. The Brewers will have to face Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller, which sucks, but they will also get Aramis Ramirez back, which is awesome. Brewers fans can only hope that Mitchell Boggs will figure prominently into this series.

Probable starters
5/2 Westbrook vs. Peralta
5/3 Miller vs. Lohse
5/4 Wainwright vs. Gallardo
5/5 Garcia vs. Estrada

Brewers/Cubs series review - Taking advantage of mistakes

Results:
Friday, 4/19 Brewers 5, Cubs 4
Saturday, 4/20 Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Sunday, 4/21 Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Win Probability Stars:
4/21, Ryan Braun homered to left, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jean Segura scored (+.350 WPA)
4/19, Ryan Braun homered to left, Norichika Aoki and Jean Segura scored (+.131 WPA)
4/21, Alfonso Soriano grounded into a double play, Anthony Rizzo out at second (Wily Peralta pitching) (-.108 WPA)

Despite the sweep, the Brewers didn't necessarily dominate the series. Every game was close, but the Brewers won by taking advantage of mistakes made by the Cubs both in the field and on the mound. Chicago committed six errors (at least one in each game) and every one would eventually result in runs for the Brewers. Errors are subjective and kind of a silly statistic to evaluate defense, but every one of the Cubs' mistakes were worthy of the title. Of course, the Brewers made one incredible blunder of their own (more on that later), but were able to overcome it.

The other story of the series was the Brewers' pitching. They got quality starts out of Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta, and an excellent debut (5 IP, 1 ER) out of fresh call-up Hiram Burgos. The bullpen contributed 9 1/3 innings giving up only one run. The offense was merely okay despite the run totals, mostly having a couple big innings surrounded by stretches of nothingness.

All told, it was a pretty bland series for the Brewers, which is odd considering it was a sweep. But beating the #Cubes is always pretty sweet.

MVP: Ryan Braun

Braun hit big home runs in two of the games, so this was a pretty easy choice. Overall, Braun's had an odd start to the season, basically amounting to a three-true-outcomes player (14 hits, 5 HR, 10 BB, 20 K in 60 plate appearances). He also sports an incredibly low 3.3 line drive %, which is bizarre. I'm sure it's small-sample weirdness, but it's still strange to see on his stat sheet.

LVP: Alex Gonzalez

Rickie Weeks was under consideration, but he still worked some deep counts and drew his walks. Gonzalez went 0-for-the series, his only bright spot being an RBI groundout. It's been a commonly held belief that Yuniesky Betancourt will be the odd man out when Aramis Ramirez or Jeff Bianchi return from the DL, but Gonzalez has played the worst of the bench players by far, and hasn't been as good with the glove as expected.

Play of the Series: Jean Segura's baserunning decision

This is the blunder I was referring to earlier. It seems weird to pick a bad play for this award, but it stands out more than anything else. Braun's game-winner on Sunday will probably be forgotten in a few days, but Segura's retreat back to first after being picked off trying to steal third is without a doubt the strangest thing I've ever seen in a baseball game. And I've seen this (hey, Kyle Lohse was involved).

What's Next:

The Brewers head to glorious Petco Park in San Diego, looking to add to their 7-game winning streak. Petco hasn't been kind to the Brewers lately but Braun did hit three bombs and a triple in one game there last year, so there's that.

Probable starters
4/22 Lohse vs. Marquis
4/23 Gallardo vs. Richard
4/24 Estrada vs. Volquez

Brewers/Diamondbacks series review - Everything is broken

The Brewers were lucky to get out of the Arizona series alive, and by that I mean they got swept and three of their best hitters got hurt but at least the bus to Chicago didn't crash. The series went about as bad as it possibly could, although I suppose the D-Backs winning every game 20-0 would have been worse. The pitching continued to struggle, with Mike Fiers and Yovani Gallardo getting knocked around in their starts and the bullpen giving up at least two runs in every game. Gallardo looked a little better than he did on opening day and was the victim of some bad outfield defense, but Fiers was blasted from the start and couldn't draw swings-and-misses. Kyle Lohse had a terrific debut on Friday night, but got little support from his offense and bullpen.

Much of the talk around the series thus far has centered around the failings of the 13-man pitching staff (which led to Kyle Lohse pinch-hitting with the game on the line in Sunday's game), but injuries have taken their toll on the team. Ryan Braun injured his neck prior to Friday's game and sat out the whole series, Aramis Ramirez ended up on the DL with a strained knee, and young shortstop Jean Segura had to leave Sunday's game with a bruised left thigh he sustained from a take-out slide by Gerardo Parra. Segura and Braun are only day-to-day at this point, but with an already short bench it's probably not the last time a pitcher will be forced to pinch-hit at some point.

John Axford blew up again in Sunday's game, escaping the 10th inning despite some loud outs and finally caving in the 11th by giving up a double to a crappy hitter in Cliff Pennington followed by a two-run shot by another crappy hitter in Eric Hinske. Manager Ron Roenicke claims Axford is still his closer, which is pretty incredible, but it's hard to imagine his leash being much longer after giving up four home runs in just 2 2/3 innings.

Awards time.

MVP: Jean Segura

I had a hard time picking between Segura, Lohse, and Nori Aoki, but I ultimately went with Segura despite him being knocked out of Sunday's loss. He hit his first career dinger on Friday, a big shot to straightaway center that ended up being the team's only run. He followed that up with another big game at the plate on Saturday, including a run-scoring double. All told, he went 4-for-9 in the series with a walk, and played fine defensively for the most part.

LVP: Burke Badenhop

Badenhop wins this prestigious award by contributing significantly to two losses. He was charged with two runs on Friday in 1/3 of an inning by giving up a walk and a hit, and while Michael Gonzalez (and Jonathan Lucroy, I guess) allowed those inherited runners to score, Badenhop's job is to get outs and the one out he did get was courtesy of a sacrifice bunt. Burke then followed that up on Sunday by allowing a base hit and a homer in the span of three pitches, putting the Brewers behind by two runs in a game they would lose by one. A pretty forgettable series for the sinkerballer who's ball is not sinking very well.

Play of the Series: It basically came down to Segura's homer and Logan Schafer's sweet throw on Sunday, but I'm going with Segura because first career taters are pretty sweet and Jean's reaction while rounding the bases was priceless. While it was obviously more than one play, Kyle Lohse striking out five straight to start Friday's game was a cool moment as well.

What's Next: The Brewers hit the road for their first trip outside of Miller Park this year. They are fortunate to not have to face Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija in any of the three upcoming games, but with how banged up the lineup is it's difficult to say the Brewers have any kind of edge, even if the pitching comes around. It's too early to declare anything a must-win game or series, but the team needs to take advantage of weak opponents and getting at least a couple wins against the Cubbies would be nice.

Position By Position - Shortstop

What do you get when you cross a piano with a hippopotamus?


...I don't know, but it's probably easier to think about the Brewers shortstop situation.

Jean Segura
 

 
Okay, so maybe that was a bit of an over-dramatic opening. Shortstop isn't THAT complicated for this team. But, it certainly gets a little murky on the depth chart after this guy.

My first exposure to Segura was through the twitter account of one Adam Foster (@AdamWFoster), a currently inactive writer for Project Prospect. For a period of time, it seemed like Foster would get one question a day from Angels fans on the transition of Segura to shortstop, to which he would respond that many early reports were positive.

"Built a little like Rickie Weeks, Segura is a high-energy talent with swagger, an aggressive approach at the plate and surprisingly smooth defensive actions given his build. He has quick feet and a quick exchange."

Foster wrote that in November of 2011, before Segura made the full transition to shortstop. But even then, he believed Segura could be average defensively at the position.

And really, that's all he needs to be with the Brewers. The offensive promise he brings is good enough to make up for any setbacks defensively, especially if he can make a few plays like this from time to time.

 

 

The Brewers will certainly be hoping to see a bit of that offense come to fruition this season after a rather ho-hum debut last year. As it was, he already appeared to be getting more comfortable down the stretch by posting a .785 OPS in September/October, which was worlds better than the putrid .489 he recorded in August. He's still a rookie, too. Let's not forget that even demi-god Mike Trout had a .296 wOBA after his first 40 games in 2011.

Given time, Segura could provide a nice burst to the top of the lineup with his above-average speed, good contact ability and surprising power. He probably won't ever be a 20-home run hitter the way J.J. Hardy was, but I don't think it's out of line to expect a few double-digit homer seasons from him during his time with Milwaukee. That might be asking a lot this year, but maybe one day soon.

I thought about doing a profile of Yuniesky Betancourt, but the mere idea of it made me want to go  cry alone in a corner while shoveling down a box of chocolate chip cookies.


So I did it anyway.

Yuniesky Betancourt
 

 
There isn't too much to say about ol' Yuni that we don't already know. He's an awful shortstop, and a pretty bad hitter to boot (he posted a 73 wRC+ in over 200 games from 2011-12). But alas, as things stand right now with Alex Gonzalez manning first base, he's likely to see a little time spelling the Brewers young starting shortstop.

I don't know if there's anyone who rightfully draws the fury of fans with their poor play more than Betancourt. I'm still in awe he started as many games at shortstop as he did 2011 (152!!!). He had his moments, sure, but I'm not about to .gif that behind-the-back flip you'll be seeing 80 times next month on FS-Wisconsin. No, instead I've decided I'm going to show you this one to inspire everyone out there to pray like hell nothing happens to any of the current infielders on this team.

But hey, it's not all doom and gloom with Yuni. After all, he did hit .299 one month...right?


...RIGHT?!?

The Other Guys:

Alex Gonzalez
Jeff Bianchi
Josh Prince

Eventually, Gonzalez will be expected to reclaim his main utility infielder role once Hart returns from the DL, and it's reasonable to expect him to see most of the reps at shortstop then whenever Segura needs an off day. Gonzalez was a great shortstop for a long time, and is probably still just above average today. Heck, even after knee surgery, he may still be better than Segura there. He's an ideal backup candidate, bringing good pop and solid glove off the bench whenever he's needed. Bianchi and Prince may see time eventually, with Bianchi likely a better candidate than Prince at this point. Bianchi has hit well in the minors, but hasn't shown much yet at the major league level.

It's hard to say who will play where all year, especially once Hart returns from the DL. The hope has to be that Segura plays well enough to not need much time off early on, and that when he finally does, Gonzalez is back in the role the team signed him to play.

New and notes: Gonzalez returns, prospect rankings, Corey Hart, Brewers sign a bunch of old guys

Alex Gonzalez strikes back
The Brewers are bringing back veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez on a one-year, $1.5 million-dollar deal that could be worth $2.5 million with incentives. Gonzalez hit .259/.326/.457 in 2012 and provided solid defense before tearing his ACL on May 5th while stealing a base against the San Francisco Giants. He will likely provide insurance in case youngster Jean Segura struggles while also serving as a righty bat off the bench. Gonzalez has never played any position other than shortstop in his career, so it will be interesting to see how the team uses him.

Prospective prospects
'Tis the season for prospect rankings, and most of the major prospect publications have released at least a top-10 of Brewers prospects. The friendly dudes over at Disciples of Uecker already posted a comprehensive list of the different rankings, and there aren't many surprises other than Fangraphs' fairly bizarre inclusions of Jim Henderson and Mark Rogers, both of whom are well past prospect status. The other major takeaway is that the Brewers have a much deeper system than in years past, though they lack high-end upside. We here at The Book of Gorman will do our own set of rankings at some point, just in case you were laying awake at night worried that there just wasn't enough prospect talk on the internet.

Corey Hart :(
Brewers first baseman/awesome sauce Corey Hart underwent knee surgery last Friday, forcing him to miss the first two months of the season. While Hart has had a few DL stints in his career, this is the first time he's had to miss a significant amount of time, and it comes at a bad time for the Brewers, who need all the help they can get to contend. Mat Gamel will likely fill in, and the team has been looking at other veteran options, including former fan favorite Lyle Overbay. I personally still believe that Gamel can hit at the major-league level, but it's unlikely that he can replicate Hart's production offensively and defensively for the first couple months.

Brewers bring a couple of guys out of retirement, plan sequel to "Space Cowboys"
Since the last time I posted on the Brewers' offseason moves, the team has brought in infielder Bobby Crosby and pitcher Kelvim Escobar on minor-league deals, neither of whom have appeared in a major-league game since 2010. Crosby is a former Rookie of the Year winner who's only good season was his ROY campaign in 2004, while Escobar had a solid career as a starter but has one appearance since 2007. The team also signed 34-year old LOOGY Mike Gonzalez to a major-league deal (yay?), and brought in a bunch of other guys in on minor-league deals (RP Jim Hoey, OF Cole Garner, SS Ozzie Smith Newsome, Rene Tosoni, Alfredo Figaro [sort of], and C Robinson Diaz).

Cesar Izturis to Nationals; FREEDOM! Also Jean Segura.

Cesar Izturis has been acquired by the Washington Nationals, MLBTradeRumors reports. No word on what the Brewers will get back, but it'll probably be nothing other than some wadded up cash from GM Mike Rizzo's pocket. The Nats needed infielder depth, and apparently didn't mind said depth possessing a toothpick for a bat.

                                                 The most misleading Izturis photo ever.

Taking Izturis' place will be shiny new prospect Jean Segura, whom the Brewers snagged in the Zack Greinke trade. This call-up is a little puzzling, seeing as this starts the clock early on Segura's service time and he might not be ready for the majors just yet. The team has done this before, however, calling up Alcides Escobar in the second half of the 2009 season and Lorenzo Cain midway through 2010. Regardless, we won't have to watch Cesar hopelessly flounder at the plate anymore. Hallelujah.

Zack Greinke traded, Mark Rogers joins the neighborhood

I believe it was a philosopher that once said, "give me your heart, make it real, or else forget about it". Zack Greinke would not give the Brewers his heart, so to speak, by signing off on a proposed $112 million contract extension, and GM Doug Melvin was left with no choice but to trade him.

And trade him he did, to The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (a name which literally translates to "The The Angels Angels of Anaheim") for SS Jean Segura and RHP's John Hellweg and Ariel Pena. The Brewers did well in this trade (better analysis than mine here and here), and hope still remains that Greinke could return in the offseason if the free agent market plays out that way.

Former first-round pick Mark Rogers will start in Greinke's place on Sunday, as fellow rotation candidate Tyler Thornburg is experiencing a sore arm. Rogers had a cup of coffee with the Brewers during the 2010 season and has overcome a slew of arm troubles to make it back to the majors. Rogers' seasonal number in AAA Nashville don't look all that impressive (6.99 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.72 ERA), but he's pitched very well as of late, giving up just nine hits and two runs over his last 19 innings with 20 strikeouts.

As an aside, I have the vision in my head of Aaron Rodgers and Mark Rogers in a western-style showdown, with Aaron Rodgers drawling "this town ain't big enough for the two of us". Mark Rogers would almost certainly lose the duel, seeing as he would likely suffer a shoulder injury trying to draw the gun from it's holster.