A Common Sense Approach to Appropriately Evaluating Strikeouts in the Proper Context, or Dudes Chill Out Already

                There seems to be this pervasive notion amongst rabid “old school” fans and analysts that a strikeout is the ultimate sin a batter can commit, and that putting a ball in play is always better (and by extension the player that strikes out less is the better player).  The thinking here is that if you put the ball in play you might advance the runner, possibly driving in a run, and you force the defense to make a play which sometimes they won’t.  If you strikeout then nothing happens (except for the rare occasion when the catcher drops the ball and the runner reaches).  On the surface it makes sense, but when you look closer you begin to see the holes.

Advancing a runner only matters if it results in that runner crossing home plate at some point in that inning.  That doesn’t always happen and when it doesn’t, that productive out didn’t really matter. Even then, driving in a run doesn’t always matter.  One run isn’t going to help you much if you’re down by 5 late in the game.  The point here is that while technically better than a strikeout, if your team doesn’t end up winning that game those outs don’t really matter except maybe to make you feel better, pad a player’s stats, or help your fantasy team. 

There are a several ways that an out on a ball in play is no worse than striking out.  A fielder’s choice erasing the runner at second is tantamount to a strikeout.  It might even be worse if the new runner at first is worse than the previous base runner.  Any out where it’s the first out of an inning and there are no base runners isn’t really any different than striking out.  Any out that is the third out of an inning is essentially no different than a strikeout.  Any out where a batter sees at least 3 pitches but does not advance a runner or drive in a run, an infield pop-up  or a shallow fly-out for example, is more or less equal to a strikeout.

I can even think of a few instances where an in-play out has a more detrimental impact on the game than a strikeout.  A strikeout requires at least 3 pitches be thrown.  Therefore, an at-bat where a player sees 2 or less pitches (pitch counts matter in today’s game) before making an out that does not advance a runner or result in an RBI would be worse than a strikeout.  Putting a ball in play that results in a force out at 3rd base or home plate is worse than a strikeout.  Hitting into a non-run producing double play is the absolute worst way to make an out.  One could argue that even an RBI double play is worse than a strikeout as it erases a base runner and potentially kills a big inning.  That might be a stretch but I hope you’re beginning to see my point.

I won’t deny that striking out is a bad thing and there are certain ways to make an out that we’ve labeled as “productive.”  But just because a player has a low strikeout rate doesn’t necessarily make him a good offensive player.  Placido Palanco, Juan Pierre, and Andrelton Simmons all have a K% of less than 10% which is much lower than the major league average of 19.8%.  In fact they have the they have the 4th, 5th, and 8th lowest K% respectively in the majors as of this writing.  They must be great right?  Well, not a single one of them has an OBP higher than .294.  Simmons currently owns a .279 OBP.  To put it another way, even though they don’t strike out a lot, in over 70% of their at-bats they’re still making outs.  That’s terrible.

Conversely, just because a player strikes out a lot doesn’t mean he’s a bad player or that he’s worse than one who strikes out less.  Look at someone like Rickie Weeks, who I’ve heard criticized for his strikeout rate.  This year his K% is 26.8% (23.2 for his career).  But Weeks current season OBP is .331 (.349 for his career).  He strikes out more than those other three, but overall he makes fewer outs.  Rickie Weeks is a much better offensive threat despite the strikeouts.  By the way, the major league average in 2013 for second basemen is .316 so even in a down year he’s getting on base at a better than average rate.

            Strikeouts are bad, of course.  But people who rail against them seem to forget one simple thing: All outs, in general, are bad.  That’s really the crux of my argument.  If you’re going to cite a player’s K% you need to put in context with his OBP.  Otherwise you’re only giving me part of the story.

2013 Trade Deadline Preview

The Brewers are not going to compete this season. There, I said it. And at the rate they're playing, they are almost guaranteed to be sellers by the time the non-waiver trade deadline rolls around on July 31st.

So with this in mind, a lot of questions need to be answered. Who will be on the block for the Brewers? What could they possibly get in return? Will Mark Attanasio play ball despite wanting to field an annual contender?

To find all these answers and more, The Book of Gorman is giving you an exclusive look behind the door of an actual Major League Baseball GM, or to be more specific, that of one Mr. Douglas Decimus Meridius Melvin...

Doug calls Phillies GM Ruben Amaro

(phone rings) "Hello?"

"Ruben! It's Doug Melvin. How the heck are ya?"






"Oh, hi Doug. It goes okay, I guess."






"Aww, what's the matter? Got the Roy Halladay blues? You know what, though? I got just thing to cure what ails you: Yuniesky Betancourt. Eh? Eh???





"Gee Doug, that's a tempting offer, but we already got ourselves a slow position player who can't hit right handed pitching. His name is Delmon Young."





"Well, why not double down then, huh? Think about it: Young and Betancourt back-to-back in the lineup. Not bad, right?"






(dial tone)







"Hello? Ruben?"

Doug calls A's Actor/GM Billy Beane

"Billy! Long time no talk. How's George Kottaras working out for you?"

"Umm...I cut him a while ago, Doug."






"Ohh, that's too bad...hey! Guess what I'm calling about?"






"I don't want Kyle Lohse, Doug."






"Fine, be that way. Say hi to Angelina and the kids for me!"






"...What?"

Doug calls Angels GM Jerry Dipoto

"Jerry!"

"What do you want, Doug? I know what this is about. Haven't you taken enough from me?"





"Aww, don't be like that, Jerry! I just wanted to talk...and-maybe-see-if-you-wanted-kyle-lohse-or-aramis-ramir..."






"Goodbye, Doug."

Doug calls Royals GM Dayton Moore

"DAYTON!"

"DOUG!!!"

"DO YOU WANT ARAMIS RAMIREZ?!?"







"OH BOY, OH BOY! DO I EVER!"






"MIND SENDING ME ALL YOUR KYLE ZIMMERS THEN?"





"Oh, gee, I don't know...the fans will be awful cross with me if I went and gave up a really good prospect again."





"But you'd be getting a REALLY good player, Dayton! Come on, it's me, Doug! Your buddy? Your oldest pal? Tell you what: if it makes you feel that bad, I'll give you Yuniesky Betancourt AND Craig Counsell to boot. Then you can just cover all the money!"






"Oh wow!!! You'd really do that for me, Doug? I absolutely LOVE Craig Counsell!"






"Hey, what are friends for?"



Headline of the Kansas City Star on October 3rd, 2013: "DAYTON MOORE CHASED INTO RIVER BY ANGRY MOB"

*end scene*

Gems from the Second Round

Happy Draft Day, everyone!

Oh c’mon, is everyone still bummed out over ANOTHER premature report concerning Ryan Braun possibly, could be, maybe getting suspended? Well turn those frowns upside down! It’s on this day that the Brewers will hopefully draft their next big superstar.

...Alright, so maybe those odds are a little more slim than usual. As many of us are well aware, the Brewers forfeited their first round pick this year to the St. Louis Cardinals for signing free agent pitcher Kyle Lohse; something I imagine the team now wishes they could take back, considering their current standing.

So why get excited then? Because sometimes when you dig deep enough, you find a diamond in the rough. 

The best teams don’t win from drafting all their talent in the first round, they find solid contributors from all over the draft. And as their first pick isn’t until the 2^nd round this year, I decided to take a peak back at all the best selections from that round in franchise history

Yovani Gallardo

Let's start it off with a current player. After being drafted in 2004 out of Trimble Technical High School in Fort Worth, Texas, Gallardo has spent a better part of his career as the Brewers’ #1 pitcher, and has done quite well in that role overall.

To call him a consistent performer, though, would be a bit asinine since he’s far from what you'd call a consistent pitcher, and 2013 has been no exception. However, it’s easy to forget just how good he’s been in the past, as he's currently carrying a career 3.73 ERA (right in line with his cumulative 3.67 FIP) to go with a 9.07 K/9. He's also coming off of his fourth consecutive 200 strikeout campaign, and has been worth a combined 15.2 (f)WAR, which is good for 6^th all time in Brewers pitching.

Given where he was drafted and what he’s brought to the table, it’s really hard to complain about his production to date, especially when he’s been one of the few rocks in the rotation for Milwaukee for the past 5 years. With a contract expiring in 2 seasons, however, it's possible his time as a Brewer may soon be coming to an end. If that’s the case, he will surely be leaving quite an imprint from everything he and the team would have accomplished during his tenure.

 

JJ Hardy

In the midst of Seguramania, we've almost forgotten that the Brewers had themselves an All-Star shortstop just 4 years prior to this one. 

Hardy had recently graduated from Sabino High School in Tucson, Arizona when the Brewers selected him in 2001. Years later, he came up with a star-studded group of prospects that included Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, and despite a poor final season, he performed a lot better than people may give him credit for.

For one, Hardy played his position very well. Spanning over 4500 innings with the Brewers from 2005 to 2009, Hardy rated as the second best defensive shortstop in baseball, just behind Omar Vizquel (who is, by his own merit, certainly no slouch with the glove). He hit 75 home runs, and held a .320 weighted on base average (wOBA), which is by all means pretty good for a shortstop.

The unfortunate part for Hardy was all the while he was experiencing success with the major league club, the team had a whiz defensive shortstop coming up right behind him in Alcides Escobar. This meant that as soon as he got expensive/wasn’t pulling his weight, it was curtains for him. In a light turn for the team, though, the Brewers were also fortunate enough to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Hardy, which has worked out pretty okay, I guess, especially in the past season and a half.

Still, when all is said and done, Hardy will not just be regarded as one of the better 2^nd rounders the Brewers selected, but also one of their best shortstops (even if Segura steals our hearts in the next 5+ years).

Moose Haas

An oldie but a goodie. Selected by the Brewers out of  Owings Mill, Maryland's Franklin High School in the 1974 MLB Draft, the right-handed Haas has gone down as one of the best pitchers in Brewers history. Remember that WAR list I mentioned with Gallardo? Haas ranks 4^th on that list, just a little ways above Gallardo, with a career 20.9 (f)WAR as a member of the Crew.

Haas wasn’t so much a "world-beater" as a pitcher as much as he was a durable, effective starter. He made 231 starts for the Brewers, only once striking out over 113 batters, but also keeping a cool 2.37 BB/9. He averaged around 180 innings in a normal year, and finished a total of 56 games in his career, including one season in 1980 where he went the distance 14 times.

Though his career numbers wouldn’t necessarily “wow” anyone, Haas was a reliable part of the Brewers rotation, and stood as someone the team could count on year in and year out, especially during some of their more competitive years. For a second round value, that’s more than most teams would dream of even today.

 

There are certainly other worthy candidates that could have made this this list, and let’s not forget about recent up-and-comer Jimmy Nelson from the 2010 draft, who just yesterday was promoted to AAA Nashville and will likely be seeing time with the club this September. This is just a nice reminder that even without a first round pick, the Brewers could stumble on some gold if the right player falls to their position.

Enjoy the draft, reaction to hopefully come soon after in the days following.

Brewers/Pirates: Is this real life?

Results:

Friday, 5/24 Brewers 2, Pirates 1

Saturday, 5/25 Brewers 2, Pirates 5

Sunday, 5/26 Brewers 4, Pirates 5

Win Probability Stars:

5/26  Ryan Braun doubled to left. Weeks, Aoki, and Segura score (WPA .237)

5/24  Alex Gonzlez doubled to center.  Ramirez and Gomez score. (WPA .113)

5/26  Jeff Bianchi tripled. (WPA .101)

Another series against the Pirates another near sweep, in bizarro land.  The Brewers are supposed to dominate the Pirates.   They have for years, but for the second series in a row against the Pirates they nearly got swept.  And again, the Brewers only win resulted from another stellar performance from Estrada.

I’m not typically an alarmist, but a few things have got me worried about this team.  Namely, the Brewers’ starting pitching.  Estrada was the only guy to go past the 4^th inning.  Fiers went 4 and gave up 3 earned runs.  He was making a spot start for Lohse who is dealing with “elbow tightness.”  But since Burgos is on the DL and Narveson is still throwing simulated games, unless the Brewers decide to make a move, Fiers is going to remain in the rotation for at least a little while.  We can always hope he’ll find a bit of what he had the first half of last year, but so far we haven’t seen that.

Gallardo continued his struggles with command and therefore his efficiency which has been compounded by his downward trending velocity.  He lasted only 4 innings, giving up 4 runs, while throwing 94 pitches.  He never was a true major league ace, but now he might not even be a number 2 type pitcher.   I still like Gallardo and I do think he can be an above average pitcher again, but he’s going to have to learn to pitch with his lower velocity and tighten his command, something he’s always struggled with. 

It’s not all on the starting rotation however.  The Brewers averaged 3 runs per game, but just scored 2 runs in the first two of the series.  Only Aoki, Segura, Braun, Gomez, and Ramirez when he’s playing, are hitting.  Everyone else has been miserable.  Corey Hart still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment so there is no date for his return which means we’re going to have to sit through the first base platoon of Betancourt and Gonzalez for the foreseeable future.  That does not bode well.  Lucroy and Weeks have yet to find their stride and have both seen their playing time reduced because of it.  As a result Bianchi has seen some starts at second base and has performed well enough, but he’s not a long-term solution.  As for Lucroy’s back-up, Maldonado, he’s been about as “good” as Luc. 

There is room for optimism.  Lohse is supposed to start Thursday or Friday so hopefully his elbow problems aren’t serious and overall he’s been good.  Gallardo has history on his side and hopefully he can turn his season around.  Peralta’s velocity is just so good, if he can improve his command there is no reason to believe he can’t be as good or close to, as he was in his starts last year.  Chris Narveson is on the mend and should be joining the haggard rotation sometime in the next few weeks barring a setback.  That’s…something.  Corey Hart too should be returning…this year anyway.  I also believe Lucroy and Weeks will start hitting again.  In fact, I’ll be so bold as to say that Weeks is back to his old self in by mid-June!  Still, it’s deep hole they got themselves in.  If they win 60% of the rest of their games (using their record after Monday’s game) they’ll end the season with 86-87 wins.  That’ll probably place them just shy of the second wild card.  But hey, Segura stole first base this year so stranger things have happened.

MVP: Marco Estrada

I promise one of these times I’ll give the MVP to someone other than Estrada, but to me he was again the clear choice.  He gave the Brewers 7 splendid innings and only gave up 1 run which was essential since the team only scored twice.  Estrada wasn’t just good he was perfect through the first 4 innings.  Neil Walker broke up the perfect game and no hitter with a single in the 5^th inning with 2 outs.  Before that Estrada had retired the first 14 batters of the game.  He struck out 8 batters, allowed four hits, and zero walks. 

LVP: Yovani Gallaro

It hurts me to do it, but I had to give it to Gallardo.  He’s supposed to be the ace of the staff and the Brewers really needed him to pitch like it after a short start from Fiers the day before.  Instead he only pitched 4 innings and gave up 4 runs.  The bullpen came in an only gave up 1 run in the last 5 innings, but if the Brewers continue to ask them for 4 or 5 innings then they’re going to get worn out pretty fast.

Play of the Series: Segura's home run to center

There were actually a few plays I could have gone with.  Gonzalez’s game winning double, Gomez’s two home runs, and Braun’s 3-RBI double were the chief competition.  In the end I gave it to Segura’s home run to center because it was gone by a lot.  Most of Segura’s home runs have gone down the line and one could argue that put into question his true power: Is he just getting lucky.  But this home run was hit to the deepest part of the park and it was a no-doubter.  I have no real idea what his home run potential for a season is, but I’m a lot more optimistic after watching that one.

What’s Next:

Let’s pretend this isn’t late and Monday’s game has been played already, okay?  So, ahem: Next up is the Twins.  They’re awful this year so yay for the Brewers!  Peralta should have an easy task ahead of him on Monday.  Then on Tuesday we’ll see a spot start from Alfredo Figaro.  It’s going to be a tough day for the bullpen, but I’m sure Peralta will go deep enough in the game on Monday to help them rest up in preparation.

Probable Pitchers

Monday, 5/26 Peralta vs Correia

Tuesday, 5/27 Figaro vs Diamond

BREWERS/PIRATES SERIES REVIEW: Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Enter Here

Results:

Monday, 5/13: Brewers 5, Pirates 1

Tuesday, 5/14: Brewers 3, Pirates 4

Wednesday, 5/15: Brewers 1, Pirates 3

Thursday 5/16: Brewers 1, Pirates 7

Win Probability Stars

5/14 Carlos Gomez doubled to right.  Ryan Braun scored. (+.139 WPA)

5/15 Jonathan Lucroy tripled to center. (+.127 WPA)

5/14 Jean Segura homered. (+.116 WPA)

Brewers sweep the Pirates! Brewers sweep the Pirates!  Well, not exactly.  But that’s what we were all thinking coming into the series because, you know, it’s the Pirates.  Monday’s game certainly did nothing to make us think otherwise.   Estrada pitched a 7 inning, 1-run gem and the Brewers backed him up with 5 runs and a hilarious number of stolen bases (6), 3 of which came from Jean Segura who also had 3 hits.  That’s more or less where the fun stopped. 

Things seemed to get off on the right foot in the second game as Segura hit a solo home run in the first inning.  Lohse was a bit shaky, but overall it wasn't a terrible start.  He went 5 2/3 innings and while he gave up just 2 runs, he also allowed 5 walks which was exactly the number of walks he allowed in all his previous starts this season.  The Brewers had a 1 run lead going into the 8th until John Axford gave up a single to Neil Walker and then a double to Russell Martin, tying it up.  The game would go into extra innings, until Andrew

McCutchen ended things with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th off of Michael Fiers.

Gallardo pitched on Wednesday and, well, was Gallardo.  He only allowed 2 runs but couldn’t get past the 6th inning.  The offense was pretty quiet except for a RICKIE WEEKS HOME RUN!!!  Unfortunately he followed that effort up with a botched play, which was not entirely his fault.  With McCutchen on third, Weeks was able to make an impressive play to stab a grounder from Neil Walker, but the throw was a bit short and Alex Gonzalez, the other (main?) culprit here, wasn’t able to pick it. Walker reached and McCutchen scored.  It didn’t really matter though, as Weeks’ home run was the only run of the game for the Brewers.

Hiram Burgos, and his righteous eyebrows, took the mound for the series finale.  Coming off what could very well end up being the worst start of his major league career, Burgos pitched relatively well going 5 innings and giving up 3 runs.  In the fifth inning Alex Gonzalez wasn’t able to pick a throw from Betancourt allowing Starling Marte to reach base.  Burgos then allowed a home run to Travis Snider.  He would get through the inning, but unfortunately that’s as far into the game as he would go.  Ramirez pinch hit for him in the 6th to no avail.  The Pirates would then put the game away in the bottom of that inning tagging Figaro for 4 runs (3 earned). 

That’s it.  Nothing else of import happened.  Okay fine.  Francisco Rodriguez made his Brewers season debut, pitching a 1-2-3 8th inning including a strikeout.  In order to make room for him on the roster the Brewers moved Taylor Green to the 60-Day DL and optioned Blake Lalli to AAA.  So yeah, 8 man bullpen again.  Huzzah…

MVP: Marco Estrada

Estrada had his worst outing against the Cardinals, sorry the evil, baby eating, puppy kicking Cardinals, last week.  Afterwards he admitted feeling lost out there so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise when his start against the Reds on Sunday was pushed back to Monday against the Pirates.  It was a good decision too, because Marco had easily his best start of the year.  He went 7 innings for just the second time this year giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 BB while striking out 5.  Make no mistake, PNC Park gets an assist here because there were more than a few long loud outs, a couple of which might have been home runs at Miller Park, but who cares?  Can’t we just let him have this one?  It was a good outing when Estrada (and the Brewers who had been on a 4 game slide) needed it most.  It was also the only win of the series...

LVP: Afredo Figaro

I struggled with this decision.  I like Figaro, I really do.  I was all set to give the “honors” to Yuni B.  I wanted to.  It would have been cathartic.  I mean, the guy did nothing in the series until game 4 when he singled and drew a walk.  But I felt Alex Gonzalez just edged him out.  His inability to pick the throw from Weeks lead to a run and only added fuel to the fire for people that inexplicably want Weeks cut.  His inability to pick the throw from Betancourt resulted in Burgos giving up a 2 run home run instead of a solo shot.  Unfortunately Figaro’s outing on Thursday beat them both.  When he came in the game the Brewers were down by 2 and still had a chance to win the game.  The Pirates were up by 6 when he was pulled after recording only 1 out.  That pretty much says it all.

Play of the Series: Jean Segura steals 3 bases in Monday's game.

Yeah, I know. It’s technically 3 different plays, but it’s what stuck out to me as the most enjoyable thing from this sad series.  Rickie Weeks’ solo shot was a close second.

What’s Next

I really didn’t think I’d be writing this, but the Brewers have to be thrilled to leave PNC Park.  They’ll finish their brutal road trip in Mordor for a weekend series against the Cardinals, who by the way have lost 3 games in May.  One of them was Thursday against the Mets so I guess anything is possibly, right?  Thankfully, as it stands now, the Brewers will miss Wainwright and Miller.

Probable Pitchers:

Friday, 5/17: Peralta vs. Garcia

Saturday, 5/18: Estrada vs. Lynn

Sunday, 5/16: Lohse vs. (John) Gast

The Best of Doug Melvin: Part 1

 

Doug Melvin has gotten a lot of flack over the years for some of the moves he's made. Suppan? Gagne? Those names will constantly make Brewers fans cringe. And no, not every move he has made for the Brewers has been a good one. But compared to the ones that did? Let's just say it definitely appears as though he's done more good than bad.

It’s the job of a general manager to find talent to fill his club from anywhere and everywhere, so it should come as no surprise that they make good moves now and again. But Melvin has seemingly been able to find real value in the most unlikely of spots at times, whether through trades, under-the-radar free agent signings, or simple waiver claims. Considering how the Brewers have been virtually absent in the international market for a long time, this is a special gift.

Read to take a stroll down memory lane? Some of these names just may make you nostalgic for some Yost-isms...

Scott Podsednik

Perhaps one of Doug Melvin’s first truly bright moves was snagging OF Scott Podsednik off of waivers from Seattle. Pods was originally a member of the Texas Rangers after being selected in the 3rd round of the 1994 draft. From there, he bounced around in the minors from club to club until landing with the Mariners, with whom he made his major league debut in 2001. When the Mariners cut Podsednik after the following year, he fell right into the lap of the Brewers, who at the time were looking for anybody with a pulse on the heels of a 100-loss season.

Given the opportunity to play everyday, Podsednik responded with arguably his best years in the majors. In his two seasons with Milwaukee, he stole 113 bases while averaging just a .330 wOBA. With just a .313 OBP in 2004, he stole 70 bases. That’s right: he got on base in less than 1/3 of his total plate appearances and still managed to steal that many. In comparison, Rickey Henderson never stole more than 70 bases with an OBP lower than .358.

Without a doubt, Podsednik was a real value to the Brewers during his short tenure, and was used as a key piece in acquiring Carlos Lee the following year, who I guess was okay for the Crew.

But really, this was just Melvin getting warmed with his ability to find diamonds in the rough.


Casey McGehee

Before he became a Japanese superstar, Casey McGehee was a very productive 3B for the Brewers.

As a waiver claim from the Cubs, McGehee had a total of 25 big league plate appearances before making Milwaukee’s roster out of spring training in 2009. With no sure playing time anywhere around the infield, he made the most of his limited opportunities before finally getting the nod over Bill Hall to play third base full-time. Although a bit rough with the glove, McGehee more than made up for it with his bat, averaging a 103 wRC+ over his 3 seasons with the club (120, if you take away his poor 2011), hit 52 home runs and accumulated 4.6 WAR, which is just .1 above his career 4.5 WAR.

Whatever McGehee had to give, he left it all on the field for the Brewers, providing a solid bat behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder where he would pick up any scraps they left behind. Those are the kind of returns you may hope for out of some top draft picks, not some guy who originally was just hoping for a bench job.


CC Sabathia

Sabathia isn’t here because the production wasn’t expected (although that 1.65 ERA was awful good), but because the returns were worth more than the price.

Michael Brantley has had a fine career to date. Not spectacular, but better than decent. Matt LaPorta though? Zach Jackson? Rob Bryson? All toiling away in the minors. LaPorta has pretty much bombed as any sort of hopeful prospect, with little hope he’ll ever exceed “useful regular” status (although he is off to a pretty nice start following hip surgery). So pretty much all the value the Indians have gotten in return has come from Brantley, and if you asked me to trade Brantley for a half season of Sabathia in his prime, it's a no brainer. Sabathia gave the Brewers 130.2 innings, 7 complete games (3 of which were shutouts), a 5 to 1 K:BB ratio and posted a ridiculous 255 ERA+.

Now, are you ready for the big one? To this day, meaning up to this point in the 2013 season, the combined WAR of Brantley, Jackson and LaPorta’s major league CAREERS has not eclipsed what Sabathia recorded with the Brewers in 2008. That's using scores by both Baseball-Reference (4.9 vs. 3.1) and Fangraphs (4.3 vs. 2.5). Yeah, it was a pretty darn good move in retrospect.


That's all for today though, folks. Stay tuned for part 2, with 50% more content and 100% more bipolar relievers...

Brewers/Cardinals Series review - "I Win the Game if You Beg Me to Cut Off Your Finger"

Results:
Thursday, 5/2 Cardinals 6, Brewers 5
Friday, 5/3 Cardinals 6, Brewers 1
Saturday, 5/4 Cardinals 7, Brewers 6
Sunday, 5/5 Cardinals 10, Brewers 1

Win Probability Stars
5/4 Jonathan Lucroy singled to center. Martin Maldonado and Alex Gonzalez scored. (+.179 WPA)

5/4 Norichika Aoki sacrifice fielder's choice to catcher (Bunt Grounder). Jeff Bianchi scored. Logan Schafer advanced to 2B. (+.172 WPA)

5/4 Logan Schafer singled to center. Jeff Bianchi advanced to 3B. (+.172 WPA)


I know, that's a long title. "Game of Thrones" fans likely recognized that quote and cringed a little bit at the thought of it. For those unfamiliar, this was said from one character to his tied-up captive in the midst of a vicious guessing game, and I thought it was fitting here. The Cardinals toyed with the Brewers this series the same way the "Game of Thrones" prisoner was being played with by his torturer. For games 1 and 3, the Cardinals gave the Brewers just enough of a window to possibly win the game, only to slam it in their face right when they were on the cusp of doing so. Then in games 2 and 4, they just blew them out like it was nothing, scoring runs at will in the process via bloops, bleeders and long balls.

Fun fact: no Brewers starter made it past 5 innings this series, and neither of them allowed less than 4 earned runs. Pretty neat, hey?

I hate the Cardinals. Hate 'em. And there's multiple reasons for it.

Part of it is jealousy. They're a well run organization from the top down with a long tradition of winning. To even deny that's a factor would be kidding myself. But many like me are fortunate enough to follow a football team who also carries these same traits, who also help ease the pain during the Brewers down seasons (apologies to fans raised on Minnesota, Illinois or any other state's football. My condolences.)

Another long handed-down tradition of the Cardinals is bitching and moaning, bred by the Tony LaRussa school of professionalism. This is where a larger part of the hatred comes from. It's their shit-don't-stink attitudes, the way they just seem to suck fun out of the game, and the extremely large ego of their fan base – the self-proclaimed "Best Fans in Baseball."

And that's not to mention the gobs of luck of they always seem to be swimming in. I've made a stink in the past over the Giants last couple World Series-winning clubs overachieving. But the Cardinals previous two winners? They make each of San Francisco's teams look like the Ruth-Gehrig Yankees.

JUST CATCH THE FLIPPIN' BALL, NELSON!!!

Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest. There really wasn't a lot to say about this series outside of that, other than Braun appears to be out of his funk. Rickie Weeks, on the other hand, continues to keep us guessing on whether he's broken out of slump or not.


MVP: Warm Weather


If you spent your time outdoors instead of watching every minute of these games, you are the real winner here.


LVP: Marco Estrada

Sorry, John Axford won it last week. A starting pitcher had to take the cake this time, and Estrada turned in the worst of the group, which also happened to be his second straight poor outing.

The Brewers were in a tough spot from the word "go" this season with their starting pitching, originally having to rely on Estrada to be their #2 starter. Even as a #3 in the rotation, they're asking a lot out of a pitcher who really is more of a back-end guy. Stepping up against some of the more talented starters in the league is always going to have mixed results for him, but especially against the Cardinals multitude of talented starters. He's simply overmatched more often than not.

That's not to say Estrada can't hold his own from time to time, but the early results tell us that gambling on a guy like Estrada to overachieve from what he is might be just asking TOO much of him.

Play of the Series: Ryan Braun's diving grab





Now that I'm done being a snarky sourpuss, I'll acknowledge that Braun actually had himself a pretty good series, and was probably the real MVP.

Watching some of the Brewers reserve outfielder out in left has helped further my appreciation for the progress Braun has made on his defense these past few years, and it's comforting to know that he can  save his own skin when he takes a not-so-good route on a tough fly ball, as was the case here.

Just another reminder that Ryan Braun is good at baseball.

What's Next

The Brewers host a two-game series against the Texas Rangers in their first interleague series of the year. The Rangers are coming in tied for the best record in baseball at 20-11 after sweeping the Boston Red Sox. The Brewers and Rangers are meeting for the first time in 3 years, and this will actually be the first of two meetings between the two teams this season, with a second two-game series set for the second weekend in August in Arlington.

Probable starters
5/7 Peralta vs. Grimm
5/8 Lohse vs. Holland