My Build for the 2014 Brewers

Compete or rebuild.  Everyone seems to think baseball teams need to choose one or the other.  I don’t see why they have to be mutually exclusive.  In a year where they finished last in their division, the Red Sox traded away a bunch of their marquee players.  Then the following year they won the World Series.  The Rays traded away one of their front-line starters (among others) and still made the playoffs.  I’m not at all suggesting the Brewers have the ability to do exactly the same thing.  They have neither the money nor caliber of pitching, but I think they can do something similar.  Here’s what I’d try to do:

1. Trade Lohse; Sign Scott Kazmir to replace him.

Several clubs were reported to have interest in Lohse at the trade deadline, but for some reason the Brewers weren’t interested.  I expect there to be even more clubs looking in on Lohse over the winter, especially since the free agent class for starting pitchers is so very mediocre.  I’m not sure what they could get for Lohse, but I imagine it would by a package with 2 or 3 prospects coming over.  If they do trade him, they would have the money to sign a guy like Kazmir.  If MLB Trade Rumors is accurate with their prediction, Kazmir could be had for something like 2 years and $16 million.  With Kazmir they’d still have a chance at getting the same level of performance from their rotation.  Kazmir experienced a career renaissance in Cleveland.  He threw his fastball harder than he has in years and had great peripherals (9.23 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 1.08 HR/9).  They’d also have the potential to trade him at a later date as well.  Gallardo is another guy I’d listen to offers for, but I think if he pitches well leading up to the trade deadline he could be worth quite a deal more.  I know the reverse is true as well, but I’d hang onto him until then.

2. Trade Aoki; Use Khris Davis in left and Ryan Braun in right.

I would absolutely trade Aoki.  I like Aoki, but he’s essentially a league average player well into his decline years.  I’d like to see Khris Davis play a full year in left field (with Ryan Braun in right).  I was impressed with what he did in 2013 and if he can perform near that level over 150 games he’ll be a very productive (and cheap) player for several years.  Aoki is a fourth outfielder on most teams, but he’s a reasonably productive player on an extremely cheap one year contract.  I think he could fetch one B type prospect.  That’s what I’d aim for rather than a major league player.

3. Trade Weeks; Platoon Gennett with Bianchi or Mark Ellis.

Trading Rickie Weeks before the season starts would prove exceedingly difficult.  Weeks was awful in 2013 and missed the second half of the season with a torn hamstring.  He’ll make $11 million in 2014.  There’s a chance, remote though it may be, that a team like the Royals or Blue Jays get desperate and trade next to nothing for Weeks and a significant amount of cash.  Gennett has proven he simply cannot hit left-handed pitching so they'll need someone to platoon him with.  They can probably find a cheap option on the free agent market but, they may already have one in Bianchi.  He hasn’t acquitted himself well at the plate in the majors but he was a much better batter in the minors, specifically against left-handed pitching.  If they don’t feel comfortable with Bianchi, Mark Ellis would provide a cheap and productive option.  Despite his age he still hits LHP well and has good defense so he could also serve as a defensive replacement late in games. 

4. Trade Ramirez; Sign Juan Uribe to replace him.

Ramirez also missed a significant chunk of time due to an injury (knee).  He was still very good when he played, putting up a triple slash line of 283/37/461 over 91 games.  A team may be interested in that, especially if they can put him at DH every once in a while to keep him fresh.  He’ll need to show he’s healthy and his salary is going to make a trade difficult.  He’s owed $16 million in 2014, $6 million of which is deferred.  There is also a mutual option in 2015 for a salary of $14 million with a $4 million buyout.  If the Brewers were to pay the $6 million in deferred salary it might make a deal viable.  If/when Alex Rodriguez is suspended, I bet the Yankees at least check in with the Brewers.  Should they find a way to complete a trade, my top target to replace Ramirez would be Juan Uribe.  His 2013 season at the plate (278/331/438) might prove to be a fluke but he’s a plus defender at third base.  That will be a nice change especially for the Brewers starting rotation which features an ever growing cadre of ground ball pitchers.  Again, if MLB Trade Rumors is accurate with their prediction, he’ll be a comparatively cheap option at the hot corner and can likely be had on a two year deal.  That could bridge the gap for recently acquired Nicky Delmonico, assuming he can actually stick at third.

5. Re-sign Corey Hart to play first base.

He comes with serious health concerns after a season missed to multiple knee surgeries, but there aren't any very good first basemen on the market.  Already several teams were reported to have shown interest in Hart as a buy low right handed power option.  I still think he ends up back in Milwaukee.  I look at Mike Napoli’s 2013 contract as a model for what Hart’s will look like.  Ultimately, I believe he’ll sign for something close to $6 million in base salary with the potential to earn another $8 million in incentives.  He’ll be a useful player, assuming health, if the Brewers are able to compete.  If they can’t, then maybe he could bring in a mid-tier prospect or two at the trade deadline.  Should they trade him (or never sign him to begin with) I would platoon Juan Francisco with Sean Halton or maybe even Jason Rogers rather than pursue a free agent or make a trade. 

6. Sign Jesse Crain and/or Ryan Madson.

They’ve both proven to be successful in high leverage situations, have high strikeout rates, and low home run rates.  Madson has been better at limiting walks.  They’re both coming off injuries, but Madson hasn’t pitched since 2011.  I expect both will want a 1 year deal to rebuild value.  Crain’s deal might include incentives based on games played or finished, but I doubt it would raise the entire salary to something the Brewers couldn’t afford.  A deal for Madson is more difficult to figure out.  It’s been two years since he pitched so he might have to settle for a minor league deal similar to what Francisco Rodriguez signed with the Brewers in 2013.  Otherwise, I would be surprised to see him get a major league deal worth more than $2 million dollars.  That’s right in the Brewers wheelhouse.  It’s possible the Brewers could sign both of them for $3-5 million in total (plus incentives for Crain).  Much like Hart, they would be useful to the Brewers if they compete or as mid-season trade bait.

Before the season begins it might prove impossible trade any one of these players I mentioned (Weeks/Ramirez), or not to their advantage either because his value might be too low (Gallardo), or they just signed him and simply aren't allowed to trade him yet (Hart, Madson, Crain).  If that’s the case, and unless they had an impressive lead for one of the playoff spots, I’d revisit the trade market at the deadline.  Depending on health and performance, Estrada might draw some interest too.  I’d even start to listen to offers for Gomez.  I know, I love him too, but my main goal here is to build a competitive team.  With the current major league talent and the farm system the way it is (consistently ranked at or near the bottom), I think the Brewers best window to start competing again is around 2016-2018.  With that in mind, I’m fine with putting together a team to compete now if it’s done intelligently and with an eye towards the future.  I think this combination of trading as well as signing (and then possibly trading) players is the best way for the Brewers to do that.

The 2014 Milwaukee Brewers

Today (Monday, November 11) is the last day for players to accept or decline qualifying offers.  The deadline is 4 pm CT.  After that, the free agent season will begin in earnest.  As usual, it figures to be a rather quiet offseason for the Brewers.  There aren’t a lot of open roster spots to fill and looking at the abysmal free agent class, that’s a relief.  First base is easily the largest hole and I believe they’ll re-sign Corey Hart.  Past that it’s likely just a couple of relievers and possibly a bench player will be signed.  They could go for a starting pitcher if the front office decides Tyler Thornburg is better suited at AAA or in the pen.  However, with Jimmy Nelson and Johnny Hellweg waiting in the wings I think it’s unlikely.  With Mark Attansio as the owner, however, it’s not something I am willing to fully write off.  The following is my best guess at what the Brewers’ 2014 opening day roster will look like:

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado (****$500 k)
1B: Corey Hart (*****$6 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco (***$1.4 MM)
2B: Scooter Gennett (****$500 k)	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez (*$10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi (****$500 k)
SS: Jean Segura (****$500 k)
LF: Khris Davis (****$500 k)
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Nori Aoki ($1.95 MM)
RF: Ryan Braun **(12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson (****$500 k)
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)	RP: Brandon Kintzler (****$500 k)
SP: Wily Peralta (****$500 K)	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Marco Estrada (***$3.5 MM)	RP: Rob Wooten (****$500 k)
SP: Tyler Thornburg (****$500 k)	RP: Donovan Hand (****$500 k)
	RP: Free Agent RP: Free Agent

Unless indicated otherwise, all salary figures come from Cots Contracts.

*Aramis Ramirez’s total salary is $16 million, but $6 million of it is deferred.

**Ryan Braun’s salary is $10 million, but he also gets $2.5 million from his signing bonus.

***Salary figure comes from MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration estimates

****The league minimum is $500,000. Some players might make slightly over that, but not by much.

*****This is just my best guess for Hart’s potential base salary. There would likely be incentives as well.

You can argue against some of my picks but I think this is pretty close to what we’ll see.  Rickie Weeks’ contract is about as close to immovable as it gets so I expect they’ll platoon him with Gennett.  As I mentioned above, I believe the Brewers will bring Hart back.  I’m guessing it’ll be for a deal similar to Mike Napoli’s 2013 contract with the Red Sox.  He got a base salary of $5 million with $8 million in incentives.  I’m also of the opinion that Juan Francisco will return.  I know a lot of people are against it because in their minds Sean Halton’s triple slash of 238/291/396 is just too good to pass up.  For the record, Juan Francisco’s was 227/296/422 (221/300/433 as a Brewer).  Neither was very good but Francisco hit better in the minors, has a massive edge in power (if he can ever hit well enough to utilize it in-game), and can play third base (in addition to first) while Halton can only play first and corner outfield.  Francisco’s defense was pretty bad at first base, but that was his first season ever at the position.  He’s been solid defensively at third in the past.  Francisco is currently working on a new swing in the Dominican Winter League with apparent success.  We shouldn’t make too much out of it though since I doubt he’s facing a lot of quality pitching, but it might just be enough to earn his way back on the roster.  He’s only expected to earn approximately $1.4 million so he won’t be prohibitively expensive.  I’m willing to pay $900,000 more than Halton’s league minimum for the potential Francisco offers.  As a side-note, if the Brewers don’t end up bringing Hart back, I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see them platoon these two guys instead. 

The Brewers have exercised Norichika Aoki’s 2014 option and announced another Aoki bobblehead day so despite all the trade rumors, until it actually happens, I expect him to be manning the outfield alongside Gomez and Braun on opening day.  Khris Davis hit his way into a reserve or platoon role.  The problem here is he can only play left.  Aoki could play centerfield in a pinch, but there is no true centerfield back up for Gomez.  The Brewers need Jeff Bianchi to back up shortstop (in addition to second and third base) so that leaves no room for Logan Schafer, assuming they roll with a 12 man pitching staff. 

The rotation seems pretty straightforward.  Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada are almost sure locks at this point.  There will be lots of trade talks surrounding Lohse and Gallardo over the winter.  While I’m in favor of this, I’ll believe the Brewers trade one when it happens.  They might have enough money to pursue a back-end starter, but I don’t think they will.  In my opinion, Thornburg is the strong front runner for the final rotation spot.  If they do end up acquiring another starter then I’d expect to see Thornburg in the bullpen.  That being said, Jim Henderson, Tom Gorzelanny, and Brandon Kintzler are probably the only relievers that are assured a spot on the roster.  Burke Badenhop stands to make just over $2 million through arbitration and is a potential non-tender.  For that reason I think the Brewers will instead go with Donovan Hand.  The two pitchers offer similar groundball potential but Hand could serve in long relief and even get a spot start or two.  I also think Rob Wooten has a solid chance of making the club out of spring training.  He was decent in 27.2 innings with the Brewers, if not overwhelming.  He didn’t strike out a lot of guys but that could improve as he’s had a solid strikeout to walk ratio in the minors.  Michael Blazek, Alfredo Figaro, David Goforth, Michael Olmsted, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, Ariel Pena, Kevin Shackleford, and Tyler Cravy could all factor in at some point. 

With the roster as I have it, the Brewers will have committed approximately $86-87 million to 23 roster spots.  In 2013 the Brewers opening day payroll was approximately $88 million.  With the extra $25 million each club is set to receive in national TV money I think it’s safe to assume the Brewers will feel comfortable going over 2013’s payroll.  They certainly won’t spend all of the extra money on the major league roster, but they shouldn’t need to use even half of it.  If I’m right all the Brewers will need from free agency is two relievers (aside from Corey Hart that is, but he’s already factored into my roster mock-up).  I won’t even hazard a guess on which relievers they’ll actually target, but it’d be nice to see them take a chance on a guy like Jesse Crain or Ryan Madson.  Each has a history of success in high leverage situations and will be cheap as they’re coming off of injuries.  It’s likely they’ll only sign one year deals wherever they end up.  They could be the 2014 version of Francisco Rodriguez.  By that I mean they provide mid-season trade potential.  

I see three main problems with this roster.  Having Khris Davis as the fourth outfielder leaves a lack of defensive depth in the outfield.  I’m not concerned about Gomez going on the DL because Schafer still has an option left and he can be called up to replace him.  However, when Gomez inevitably needs a day off Aoki would have to play center.  They might be able to get away with it here and there, but I’m concerned about his diminishing skill set.  Perhaps the Brewers feel comfortable taking that chance, but defense matters.  It’s possible they decide to go with a 6-man bullpen in favor of keeping Schafer on the roster, but I don’t see it happening that way.  Honestly, the real problem here may be wasting a roster spot, which could otherwise be filled by Schafter, on carrying two second basemen only guys.  I’d be comfortable using Bianchi in a platoon with Gennett where he faces left-handed pitching and comes in late in games as a defensive replacement.  The Brewers might be able to move Weeks at the trade deadline, but after two straight disappointing seasons and coming off an injury it’ll be a longshot to happen before opening day. 

I’m also worried about the fragility of this roster.  Aramis Ramirez is going to be 36 and he missed large parts of the season while dealing with a knee injury that never fully healed.  Ryan Braun went on the disabled list for the first time in his career right before he was suspended.  He admitted to using PEDs in order to come back from an injury during the 2011 season.  Without knowing the full story, one has to wonder if time off due to injuries will increase in the coming years.  To be clear, I’m not worried about his ability to perform at the same level, only his susceptibility to injuries.  Corey Hart missed the whole 2013 season to what ended up being two knee surgeries which makes 3 over the past 2 years.  Kyle Lohse has been fine in recent seasons but he’s dealt with injuries before and will be 35.  Gomez and Estrada both seem to end up on the DL at some point each season.  I like both of them quite a lot, but it’d be nice to see them be healthy for a full season.  With his injury history, Rickie Weeks is a risk especially since he’s coming off a torn hamstring.  I expect he’ll serve in a diminished role next year so it may not matter that much.

The other problem is the starting rotation.  Kyle Lohse exceeded my, perhaps too low, expectations.  He was the best starter for the Brewers.  I’m convinced he’s better than I thought, but I’m not sure he’s much more than a mid-rotation starter.  He’s a pitch to contact, flyball pitcher, throwing half his games at Miller Park.  Despite his excellent walk rate, I think that mix will always worry me.  Yovani Gallardo was a mess for the first half of the season.  I think it was due to his inability to adjust to his lowering velocity.  He’s never had great control and now he can’t get his fastball past hitters.  He did have a good stretch to end the season after coming off the disabled list.  It’s possible he started to figure out how to pitch with his lower velocity, but I can’t know that for sure.  Based on his peripherals I do believe he can regain some of his former skill level, but regardless, he’s now likely a number 3 quality starter at best.  Wily Peralta has exciting stuff.  His average fastball velocity is consistently among the best in baseball.  He just needs to learn how to control his pitches.  He’s shown flashes of being a number 2 guy but more often he pitched like a back-end starter.  I really like Estrada.  He had the best strikeout to walk ratio (8.30 K/9 to 2.04 BB/9) among Brewers starters.  He does have a problem with home runs, but that can sometimes be mitigated by his low walk rate.  I think he has as much potential as anyone else in the rotation.  He just can’t seem to stay healthy for a whole season.  Tyler Thornburg was very good for the Brewers over 7 starts.  He had a 1.43 ERA but it screams “small sample size.”  He gave up zero home runs and unfortunately that’s unsustainable.  He can get his fastball up to 94 and sits 92-93.  The biggest knock against him has always been his size.  Because he’s short for a pitcher, he has a hard time getting a downward plane on his pitches.  This can result in a straight fastball, which in turn results in a lot of hard hit balls.  If he can limit that issue, he could be a solid 4/5 starter.  Jimmy Nelson and Johnny Hellweg provide intriguing depth but they both showed they need more time at AAA to develop.

This team absolutely has above average potential.  I won’t pretend they can’t compete, but I can’t pretend that’s anything more than a longshot.  If everyone is healthy for the whole season the offense will be above average, arguably among the very best in baseball.  If each of the starting pitchers was able to pitch to their fullest, they’d be pretty good.  Still, we can’t ignore the problems I discussed above.  We also can’t judge this team in a vacuum.  They compete in what might be the best division in baseball.  I hate to admit it, but the Cardinals are probably going to be the strong favorite again.  The Reds and Pirates should be very tough too.  Even the Cubs are getting better.  If I had to put a number to it, I’d say this team has the potential to win anywhere from 78 to 90 games.  A 78 win season probably looks good enough mid-season to convince the front office not to sell off pieces or (worse) trade to bring talent in.  A 90 win season is just as likely to finish a couple games back of the second wild card spot as it is to earn it.  There’s a lot of risk involved here for a marginal chance to make the post season.  If it were up to me I’d look to trade some guys for prospects both before the season starts and at the trade deadline, but that’s another article.

Qualifying Offers Are Broken

Major League Baseball just updated the 2014 First-Year Player Draft order to reflect the recent qualifying offers.  You can see that list here.  This year 12 players received qualifying offer.  That means there is the potential for 12 compensation picks.  For some reason, MLB has decided those picks should come after the first round of the draft and before the Competitive Balance round.  That seems pretty ironic when you realize that the Red Sox and Yankees each stand to gain 3 picks.  It’s likely that some of those free agents will accept the qualifying offer or resign with their former team, but when two of the wealthiest clubs have a chance to make 4 picks in the draft before teams like the Brewers make 2, it should be quite clear that something is broken.

Currently a qualifying offer is a one year contract worth the average salary of the top 100 players.  Should the player decline, the club receives a compensation pick after the first round, if/when that player signs with another club.  The club that signs that free agent gives up their first round pick.  Supposedly this is designed to make it easier for small market clubs to retain or acquire talent and/or build their farm systems, but it’s not working that way.  Small market teams simply can’t offer up a salary that size for the same types of players that the Red Sox or Yankees can, so they’ll have fewer chances at netting draft picks.  It’s also not fair to mid-tier players whose market gets severely depressed by having draft pick compensation attached.

I’m not sure what the best solution is.  Mostly I think there shouldn’t be any compensation attached to free agents, but the reality is that’s probably not going to happen.  I’ve been wracking my brain for a while to find a better system and I’ve come up with something I think might be.  Instead of just one type of qualifying offer, I think there should be at least two:

                Type A Qualifying Offer: 3 years at the average salary of Top 100 players. (1st Rd Pick)

                Type B Qualifying Offer: 2 years at the average salary of Top 100 players. (2nd Rd Pick)

The parentheses indicate after which round a team would get their compensation pick should a player turn down the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere. 

This isn’t a perfect solution but it does stop teams from abusing the system.  No one is going to offer 3 years at an AAV of $14.1 million if they don’t want or aren’t prepared to take that player back.  In turn, that player is extended a solid multiyear contract.  If he turns it down it’s because he’s truly an elite/high level talent (or views himself as such) and the market will be there for him to get a better deal.  Type B qualifying offers allow teams to offer mid-tier players a contract that is reasonable and won’t depress their market as much since the compensation picks would come after the 2nd round.  To clarify, the type of qualifying offer made would be up to the team.  It’s not like before when MLB assessed free agents as Type A or Type B.  I wonder if maybe there should be a third type at something like half the average salary of Top 100 players, with a potential compensation pick coming after the 3rd round.  That might make things too convoluted.  One could also argue that 3 years is too much or two years is too much for the respective types or that the contract values should be different.  Again, I don’t know what the perfect solution is, but I think mine is better than the current system by a lot. 

A Predicted Post-Trade Deadline Post

"Brewers Stand Pat As MLB Trade Deadline Passes"

(a faux post not written by Tom Haudricourt or any other real Brewers journalist; the following information is not factual)

As the trade deadline came and went today, all was quiet on the Brewers’ front. After much speculation from national pundits for the past month, when all was said and done, the Brewers managed just one trade: veteran relief pitcher, Francisco Rodriguez, was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles for left-handed third base prospect, Nick Delmonico.

The Brewers had been reported to receive some interest in 27-year old starting pitcher, Yovani Gallardo, but Gallardo’s poor performance over the past month, a 7.56 ERA in July, rendered him virtually unmovable by most standards. This, along with underwhelming interest in players such as Kyle Lohse and Norichika Aoki, ultimately led the Brewers to retain the rest of their players. I spoke to Brewers' general manager Doug Melvin on the situation shortly after the deadline expired at 3 p.m. CST.

“We didn’t receive a lot of calls on any of our players,” said Melvin. “The offers we did receive didn’t really give us much motivation to pursue further discussion.”

Asked whether there would be future consideration in moving any sought-after players in the offseason, Melvin declined to speculate much on it, hopeful that the overall performance of the club this season would turn for the better heading into 2014.

“I don’t see that as a top priority. It’s been a tough year with injuries, but we like the team we have." said Melvin.

"Obviously we’ll consider any offers we receive, but we’d have to be overwhelmed to consider such moves.”

The Brewers have experienced several injuries to many prominent players this season; most recently with Gallardo succumbing to hamstring tightness early in the day yesterday during the first game of a double header against the Chicago Cubs. 

Asked if there was any concern over the health and performance of Gallardo, Melvin seemed positive everything would right itself in time.

“Yo has been one of our most consistent performers over the past few years. We have confidence that he’ll get back on the field soon and get back on track.”

UPDATED: The Brewers have placed Gallardo on the 15-day DL with a hamstring strain, and will elect to keep 2B Scooter Gennett on the major league club. So, if even if the team was receiving interest prior to the deadline, they would have been unable to move him regardless.

The Brewers will be looking to sweep the Cubs in the final game of a 4-game series tonight at Wrigley Field.

Should the Brewers Rebuild or Attempt a Run Next Year?

Trade season is now in full swing and the Brewers are right in the middle of things.  Clubs have reportedly been showing interest in several of their relievers and in starters Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse as well as outfielder Norichika Aoki.  Clearly the Brewers aren’t competing this year, but there is much debate as to whether they should sell off significant pieces and attempt to rebuild for future success or stand pat and attempt a run again next year.  The answer isn’t simple and one can make legitimate arguments for either side.  I happen to believe it is in the Brewers best interest to trade what they can.  The goal now should be sustainable long term success beginning in 2015 or 2016.

People who want them to make a run in 2014 point to the Greek tragedy of a season the Brewers are having and what their line-up looks like when healthy: Aoki, Segura, Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, Hart, Weeks, Lucroy.  I acknowledge that is one potent line-up, arguably one of the best in baseball, but the caveat is “when healthy” which is far from what they are.  Braun’s thumb aside, can we really say we couldn’t see this coming?  Ramirez is a great player, but he’s 35 and in the twilight of his career.  It’s not shocking he hurt his knee in spring training and reinjured it early in the season forcing a month on the DL.  Corey Hart entered spring training last year with knee issues which returned in this spring.  He ended up requiring surgery on that knee and most recently on the other, ending his comeback bid.  His back-up Mat Gamel was coming off knee surgery from the previous year which he also reinjured ending his season before it started.  Maybe no one could have foreseen the extent, to which injuries would ravage this team, but we knew there were risks, or we should have.  Now these people want to re-up with more or less the same squad hoping the same problemsdon’t occur. 

                I say more or less because Corey Hart, for one, is not under contract after this season.  And looking toward the future other regulars will see their contracts expire in the next couple of years.  Aoki’s contract includes an option for next year but that’s it.  K-Rod and Michael Gonzalez are off the books at the end of the year, which might even be a good thing.  Lohse is signed through 2015.  Ramirez, Weeks, and Gallardo’s contracts are through next year with an option for 2015 and while Weeks and Gallardo’s come at a reasonable price, Ramirez will start to become prohibitively expensive.  Next year he is owed $16 million.  His 2015 option is for $14 million with a $4 million buy-out.  Braun, Segura, Lucroy, Axford, and Gomez are under contract past 2016 but, with the exception of Luc and Segura, they’re going to start getting expensive.   So yeah, the Brewers could decide to run with those guys for the next two years, but you’re betting an aging Lohse and Aoki can maintain their current levels of production, that elder statesman Ramirez will be healthy and productive for two years, that Gallardo and Weeks’ struggles are exceptions to the rule instead of the new norm, and that Melvin will again be successful in cobbling together a bullpen on the cheap since they won’t be able to spend much.  That’s not even addressing the concerns surrounding the starting rotation outside of Gallardo and Lohse.

                I know I’ve been rather doom and gloom up until this point, but the future is brighter.  Peralta has struggled but I still believe in his potential. It just might take some time and that’s okay.  I’m willing to be patient with a guy that sits 96 mph with his fastball and can hit 98 and has solid secondary offerings.  The same goes with Hellweg.  That’s not all though.  Tyler Thornburg, James Nelson, and Taylor Jungmann all have a chance to stick in the rotation.  Thornburg may be ready now.  Nelson could be ready by mid-season next year, Jungmann too though 2015 is probably more likely for both.  After that they still have this year’s top draft pick Devin Williams, and perhaps Jorge Lopez, waiting in the wings for 2016 or 2017.  The only knock against this cadre of pitching prospects is, aside from Williams, none of them project to be more than mid-rotation starters (Peralta and Hellweg were once thought to have the ceiling of a number 2, but it’s looking like they won’t reach that, not that they still can’t).  Understand though, having so many mid-rotation candidates is by no means a bad thing.  In fact, this is arguably the best position the Brewers have been in a long time.

                Unfortunately their positional prospects aren’t quite up par with the pitching.  That’s not to say they lack talent here either.  Last year the Brewers went heavy on hitters drafting catcher Clint Coulter, and outfielders Victor Roache, Mitchell Haniger, and Tyrone Taylor.  Coulter is young and raw defensively though scouts like his bat and think he could hit well enough to play right field or first base, maybe third base if he can’t stay behind the play and the Brewers want to try him there.  He is probably the furthest away from the majors.   Roache projects best at LF and has major power, but he might not hit enough to make it.  Haniger and Taylor have been quite good since beginning their pro careers.  Haniger could hit for average and a bit of power.  He projects to play right field.  Taylor is the most exciting position player in the Brewers’ system right now.  He projects to play center field and though he was thought to be raw offensively has absolutely torn up the lower minors.  Another exciting prospect is shortstop Orlando Arcia.  He was always going to be good enough defensively to stick at shortstop but now that his bat is starting to come around he has a legitimate chance to be a regular at the position in the majors.  Tucker Neuhaus, the Brewers second draft pick this year, is a shortstop/third baseman that is intriguing.  Still, he’s very young so there’s not much to go on yet.  It’s possible that Haniger and Taylor will be ready by 2015, but it is likely most of these guys won’t come up until 2016 or later.  I suppose I should mention that Hunter Morris and Scooter Gennett will likely be as ready as they’ll ever be in 2014, but there’s a lot doubt surrounding the level of performance one should expect from those two.

                The main problem with both the pitching and positional prospects is the lack of impact talent and here is where the Brewers could make significant strides over the next two or three years, starting right now.  I think the ship has likely sailed on trading Aramis Ramirez, at least for this year.  He may draw interest in the offseason, but I think it’s more likely he gets moved, if ever, next year.  He’ll have a chance to prove he’s healthy again and the Brewers could include money in a deal to offset his large salary.  Rickie Weeks has started hitting again but I’m not sure if anyone is interested right now.  Again, he might be a guy they can trade in the offseason or next year if he shows his recent struggles are more flukes than trends.  I’d be surprised if K-Rod and Michael Gonzalez weren’t moved before the deadline, but I’m not sure what the Brewers can get for them.  Maybe an interesting prospect or two but I don’t see any impact players being shipped to Milwaukee for them.  Axford could get moved as well and I’d expect a better return for him.  He had a down year last year and struggled to start the year but has been dominant since.  He also has two years left in arbitration after this year.  Nori Aoki could prove to an interesting trade chip.  He’s a decent defender in right or left field and can play center in a pinch.  He’s a tremendous lead-off hitter though he hasn’t stolen bases this year at the same clip as he did in 2012 and his slugging numbers are down.  He’s on the wrong side of 30, but he’s also ridiculously cheap this year and next.  I really don’t know what the Brewers could get for him, but they’ll likely listen to any offer and move him for a solid return if they can.  Lohse is another guy that I read some buzz about, though I really don’t know which team is a fit or what they could get for him.  The concern is, if teams were reluctant to give up a first round pick to sign him, what, if anything would they be willing to give up in a trade for him.  It’s a good question, but I wonder if teams are less willing to give up a draft pick than they are to give up certain known quantities, because the “what if” with prospects can be exciting and enticing.  I also wonder if teams were wary about Lohse’s performance outside of St. Louis.  As far as that is concerned, I’d say Lohse has proven himself.  He could potentially be moved before the deadline, in the offseason, next year, or never.  I really don’t know.

Despite his struggles this year, I believe Gallardo represents their best chance to get impact talent.  He’s young, has a track record of quality, and his velocity seems to have returned which could allay fears about the 3year downward trend.  He hasn’t helped his value lately, but I don’t think waiting to deal him is the right move.  If his velocity does continue to trend down he may continue to struggle and his value will suffer.  He’ll also offer less control time next year so his value will automatically suffer from that.  The only benefit comes if he returns to mid-3 ERA form, but I think that is mitigated some by the lessened control years.  The trading landscape could be very different next year too.  Right now Gallardo is one of the top talents available.  Who knows who’s available this time next year?  The NL West is wide open right now and the Brewers could benefit greatly if a team like the Diamondbacks panics and decides it needs a starter.  They reportedly like Gallardo and it’s believed that left-handed starter Tyler Skaggs is available as the centerpiece in the” right trade.”  Skaggs is Arizona’s top prostpect and was ranked as the 7^th best prospect in the minors by Fangraphs, 8^th by MLB, and 12^th by ESPN.  He does have some question marks surrounding him.  He scuffled a bit in the 9 starts he made for Arizona over the last two years and his fastball was clocked at 89-90 mph which a lot lower than the 91-93 that was previously reported.  Still, the Brewers have had no success developing left-handers for whatever reason so he’s probably someone they’d covet.  He’d also immediately become the Brewers top prospect.  A warning though: As fans it’s probably best we don’t get attached to any one trade rumor as it’s never a sure thing and more often than not they prove to be nothing.   Of course, trades aren’t the only way to improve the minor league system.

                There are two ways the Brewers can improve their system outside of trades and free agency: The first year player draft and international signings.  This is the silver-lining to the awful season they’re having.  The worse their record is, the higher their draft position is next year.  They also get a larger allotment of money to spend on their picks.  Carlos Rodon, the consensus favorite to go off the board first, was drafted by the Brewers in 2010.  Clearly he didn’t sign, but the Brewers may have a chance to draft him again this year.  It’s unlikely the Brewers get the first pick overall or that he’ll fall past the first pick, but it’s not impossible and it’s something to dream on.  He’d be the ace type pitcher the Brewers are sorely lacking.  Even if they can’t draft Rodon, in the top 3 or 5 they’ll still have a good chance to get impact talent.  They’ll also be allowed to spend more pool money in next year’s international draft.  This year the Brewers already increased their international presence and I’m hoping it’s a precursor to a big splash next year.

                 I love the Brewers and I want them to compete every year.  That’s just not a realistic goal.  A small market team like them cannot afford to make big splashes in free agency very often and they can’t continue to trade away prospects like they did for Greinke, Marcum, and Sabathia.  Even if they are able to compete next year and/or in 2015, that leaves them with a serious lack of impact talent that could end up hurting them long term by not allowing them to restock the minor league talent pool through trades.  The best chance for long term sustainable success is by drafting, signing international free agents, and trading to build up cheap home grown talent.  The Brewers have a chance to do this and I think it would be a short sighted and misguided decision not to.

A Common Sense Approach to Appropriately Evaluating Strikeouts in the Proper Context, or Dudes Chill Out Already

                There seems to be this pervasive notion amongst rabid “old school” fans and analysts that a strikeout is the ultimate sin a batter can commit, and that putting a ball in play is always better (and by extension the player that strikes out less is the better player).  The thinking here is that if you put the ball in play you might advance the runner, possibly driving in a run, and you force the defense to make a play which sometimes they won’t.  If you strikeout then nothing happens (except for the rare occasion when the catcher drops the ball and the runner reaches).  On the surface it makes sense, but when you look closer you begin to see the holes.

Advancing a runner only matters if it results in that runner crossing home plate at some point in that inning.  That doesn’t always happen and when it doesn’t, that productive out didn’t really matter. Even then, driving in a run doesn’t always matter.  One run isn’t going to help you much if you’re down by 5 late in the game.  The point here is that while technically better than a strikeout, if your team doesn’t end up winning that game those outs don’t really matter except maybe to make you feel better, pad a player’s stats, or help your fantasy team. 

There are a several ways that an out on a ball in play is no worse than striking out.  A fielder’s choice erasing the runner at second is tantamount to a strikeout.  It might even be worse if the new runner at first is worse than the previous base runner.  Any out where it’s the first out of an inning and there are no base runners isn’t really any different than striking out.  Any out that is the third out of an inning is essentially no different than a strikeout.  Any out where a batter sees at least 3 pitches but does not advance a runner or drive in a run, an infield pop-up  or a shallow fly-out for example, is more or less equal to a strikeout.

I can even think of a few instances where an in-play out has a more detrimental impact on the game than a strikeout.  A strikeout requires at least 3 pitches be thrown.  Therefore, an at-bat where a player sees 2 or less pitches (pitch counts matter in today’s game) before making an out that does not advance a runner or result in an RBI would be worse than a strikeout.  Putting a ball in play that results in a force out at 3rd base or home plate is worse than a strikeout.  Hitting into a non-run producing double play is the absolute worst way to make an out.  One could argue that even an RBI double play is worse than a strikeout as it erases a base runner and potentially kills a big inning.  That might be a stretch but I hope you’re beginning to see my point.

I won’t deny that striking out is a bad thing and there are certain ways to make an out that we’ve labeled as “productive.”  But just because a player has a low strikeout rate doesn’t necessarily make him a good offensive player.  Placido Palanco, Juan Pierre, and Andrelton Simmons all have a K% of less than 10% which is much lower than the major league average of 19.8%.  In fact they have the they have the 4th, 5th, and 8th lowest K% respectively in the majors as of this writing.  They must be great right?  Well, not a single one of them has an OBP higher than .294.  Simmons currently owns a .279 OBP.  To put it another way, even though they don’t strike out a lot, in over 70% of their at-bats they’re still making outs.  That’s terrible.

Conversely, just because a player strikes out a lot doesn’t mean he’s a bad player or that he’s worse than one who strikes out less.  Look at someone like Rickie Weeks, who I’ve heard criticized for his strikeout rate.  This year his K% is 26.8% (23.2 for his career).  But Weeks current season OBP is .331 (.349 for his career).  He strikes out more than those other three, but overall he makes fewer outs.  Rickie Weeks is a much better offensive threat despite the strikeouts.  By the way, the major league average in 2013 for second basemen is .316 so even in a down year he’s getting on base at a better than average rate.

            Strikeouts are bad, of course.  But people who rail against them seem to forget one simple thing: All outs, in general, are bad.  That’s really the crux of my argument.  If you’re going to cite a player’s K% you need to put in context with his OBP.  Otherwise you’re only giving me part of the story.

2013 Trade Deadline Preview

The Brewers are not going to compete this season. There, I said it. And at the rate they're playing, they are almost guaranteed to be sellers by the time the non-waiver trade deadline rolls around on July 31st.

So with this in mind, a lot of questions need to be answered. Who will be on the block for the Brewers? What could they possibly get in return? Will Mark Attanasio play ball despite wanting to field an annual contender?

To find all these answers and more, The Book of Gorman is giving you an exclusive look behind the door of an actual Major League Baseball GM, or to be more specific, that of one Mr. Douglas Decimus Meridius Melvin...

Doug calls Phillies GM Ruben Amaro

(phone rings) "Hello?"

"Ruben! It's Doug Melvin. How the heck are ya?"






"Oh, hi Doug. It goes okay, I guess."






"Aww, what's the matter? Got the Roy Halladay blues? You know what, though? I got just thing to cure what ails you: Yuniesky Betancourt. Eh? Eh???





"Gee Doug, that's a tempting offer, but we already got ourselves a slow position player who can't hit right handed pitching. His name is Delmon Young."





"Well, why not double down then, huh? Think about it: Young and Betancourt back-to-back in the lineup. Not bad, right?"






(dial tone)







"Hello? Ruben?"

Doug calls A's Actor/GM Billy Beane

"Billy! Long time no talk. How's George Kottaras working out for you?"

"Umm...I cut him a while ago, Doug."






"Ohh, that's too bad...hey! Guess what I'm calling about?"






"I don't want Kyle Lohse, Doug."






"Fine, be that way. Say hi to Angelina and the kids for me!"






"...What?"

Doug calls Angels GM Jerry Dipoto

"Jerry!"

"What do you want, Doug? I know what this is about. Haven't you taken enough from me?"





"Aww, don't be like that, Jerry! I just wanted to talk...and-maybe-see-if-you-wanted-kyle-lohse-or-aramis-ramir..."






"Goodbye, Doug."

Doug calls Royals GM Dayton Moore

"DAYTON!"

"DOUG!!!"

"DO YOU WANT ARAMIS RAMIREZ?!?"







"OH BOY, OH BOY! DO I EVER!"






"MIND SENDING ME ALL YOUR KYLE ZIMMERS THEN?"





"Oh, gee, I don't know...the fans will be awful cross with me if I went and gave up a really good prospect again."





"But you'd be getting a REALLY good player, Dayton! Come on, it's me, Doug! Your buddy? Your oldest pal? Tell you what: if it makes you feel that bad, I'll give you Yuniesky Betancourt AND Craig Counsell to boot. Then you can just cover all the money!"






"Oh wow!!! You'd really do that for me, Doug? I absolutely LOVE Craig Counsell!"






"Hey, what are friends for?"



Headline of the Kansas City Star on October 3rd, 2013: "DAYTON MOORE CHASED INTO RIVER BY ANGRY MOB"

*end scene*