Brewers sign Mark Reynolds

                Today the Brewers signed 1B/3B Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.  If he makes the team he’ll earn $2 million with a chance at another $500,000 from incentives.  Regardless of what you think of him, that’s pretty darn cheap.  My impression is they signed him to a minor league deal simply as a way to keep a spot open on the 40-man roster.  I’m pretty confident that he’ll be on the opening day roster.  They’re still looking for a reliever and probably want to wait as long as possible before DFA’ing someone off the roster.  If they end up trading Rickie Weeks they might not have to do that at all.

                Reynolds is a prime example of a three true outcome player.  He’s either going to strikeout, hit a home run, or draw a walk.  A lot of people are going to unjustly claim he’s awful because of his strikeouts.  Don’t be one of them.  He could very well be awful.  He does have contact issues.  But strikeouts don’t necessarily mean a player is worthless.  When he hits, it’s for a ton of power.  He also has some on-base skills.  Last year wasn’t good, but he owns a career .329 OBP.  It’s not great, but you can play with that, especially when you’re hitting 25 home runs.  He doesn’t have huge splits, but he does handle LHP better than RHP.  That would fit in a platoon with Juan Francisco if the Brewers want to go in that direction.  Reynolds’ defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s better at first base than third base.  Playing bad defense, however, is worlds away from not being able to play there at all.  He’ll provide additional depth in case Aramis Ramirez gets hurt again.  He could also help make Ramirez more expendable at the deadline should the Brewers look to move him. 

                I like this signing.  Forget about the minor league aspect.  It’s a formality.  He’s going to be the starting first baseman.  I might be more pumped about a platoon with Francisco, but I don’t think that’s their plan.  The option is there though.  They’re only paying Reynolds to be a little less than a 0.5 win player which is not a high bar.  I really don’t see any way this could be bad for the Brewers.  Even if he’s awful, which I think is unlikely, they could cut him and be out very little money.  At this point in the winter I’m not sure they could have done too much better.

What's worse than Clark?

Recently the Chicago Cubs, to the abject horror of anyone who was taught about stranger danger, unveiled their new mascot Clark the cub, or Clark Cub, Cub Clark.  I don't really know which it is.  I do know it's hilariously awful.  Take a look at this terrifying scene:

Photo courtesy of CBS

It's so bad that when the Cubs are killing it in the NL Central a few years from now I'll still take solace in the fact that at least Clark isn't the Brewers' mascot.  And that got me thinking.  Is there anything worse than Clark?  So I now introduce you to The Book of Gorman's new recurring series: "What's worse than Clark?"  Here we'll compare and contrast Clark with some other awful thing and let you decide what's worse than Clark.

Clark is up against some stiff competition in our inaugural installment: The Marlins Home Run Sculpture.

Photo courtesy of BusinessInsider.com

The Marlins are a wasteland of a baseball team.  Their owner is the worst in the major leagues.  He's already, at least partially, to blame for running the Expos into the ground.  Even still, the worst thing about them may very well be the home run sculpture.  It's supposed to be a tribute to the Cuban culture in Miami.  I don't know how the Cuban community feels about it, but I think it's an eyesore.  It also cost $2.5 million which was more than the Marlins individually paid 22 players on their 25-man roster.  When a Brewers player hits a home run they shoot off the most depressing looking fireworks and Bernie goes down the slide.  It's a little silly, but it's unobtrusive.  If I want to ignore it, I can.  When a Marlin hits a home run this happens:

So there you have it.  The choice is now in your hands.  Let me know, either in the comments or on Twitter if you think the Marlins home run sculpture is worse than this:

Photo courtesy of Independent.co.uk

Where is the money going?

In 2012 the Brewers pushed their opening day payroll over the $100 million mark for the first time ever.  By the end of the season, after trades, they ended up committing a total of approximately $98 million.  It has been claimed that they lost several million dollars that season.  Whether that means they actually operated in the red or just didn’t make as much money as expected is up for debate.  Regardless, the Brewers scaled back the payroll in 2013 to a little under $89 million in order to make up for some of the losses.  I happen to think it was a prudent move.  I agreed with it despite the fact that they were to receive an additional $9 million (approximately) from their unfortunately awful local TV contract.  We shouldn’t expect them to use all that money for roster construction, but theoretically some could go towards it.  From all this, one can infer several things:

1. Prior to the increased local TV revenue, $98 million was several million over what the Brewers could spend and just break even.

2. Prior to the increased local TV revenue the Brewers could break even by operating somewhere around $92-94 million (several million below the $98 million spent in 2012). 

3. After increased local TV revenue is factored in the Brewers could break-even by operating somewhere over $92-94 million (or in other words, some millions more than several million below the $98 million spent in 2012).

I’ll also note that each club will begin receiving an additional $26 million dollars in 2014 from National TV contracts.  I’ll have more to say on this later.

Judging by the moves the Brewers have not made (e.g. not trading players to enter a rebuild phase) one has to assume the plan is to compete in 2014.  It’s possible that they could explore selling players at the trade deadline.  That is, however, less of a plan than a lack thereof.  For the sake of argument, I’m going to assume the plan is to compete.  The question then becomes what areas are in need of improvement?  One could argue that the rotation is weak and the bullpen needs bolstering.  I would say, even though they may not be exceptional pitchers, the 5 rotation spots can be filled in house and the bullpen is less important.   It is my assertion that the only glaring need is first base. 

Let’s go back to the money side of things for a moment.  Above I have inferred that $92-94 million was approximately the point at which the Brewers could operate without losing money.  This is before factoring increased revenue ($35 million) from local and national TV contracts.  It’s impractical to ask the Brewers to commit that full sum to the payroll, but I think it’s fair to say that they could commit as much as $10 million of it if not more (The rest of the TV money would go to things like the first year player draft, international signings, and improving facilities and various programs throughout the franchise).  Let's hedge our bets and say that before factoring the national TV revenue, the Brewers payroll limit was $92 million.  After factoring the new national TV money the Brewers current payroll limit is, very conservatively, $102 million dollars.  I have previously estimated the Brewers payroll to be $80.2 million with two open roster spots for a first baseman and a reliever.  That means the Brewers could theoretically spend as much as almost $22 million for those last two spots.

I’m not saying the Brewers should spend all that money for the sake of spending it.  I’m not saying they should be spending $100 million annually.  I’m certainly not saying they can compete with other clubs for elite free agents nor do I think they should try.  I understand the desire to stay away from long term deals and I agree with that in general.  I understand why they didn’t want to give James Loney something like 3 years and $27 million.  That is all the quarter I'll give them, though, because I don’t understand why they were unwilling to offer Corey Hart the deal Seattle did.  And I am absolutely saying I reject the notion that they could not afford it.  Anyone that tells you that is either lying or misinformed.  They have more than enough money.  In point of fact they have over $8 million more than enough.  I understand the risk associated with his knees but that risk is mitigated by limiting the deal to one year and making it incentive based.  Hart was a better option than anything now left to the Brewers.  He was a step closer towards legitimate contention, and also offered the ability to trade him mid-season, but that’s another conversation.  The point is they have money to spend but were unwilling to spend it on the one thing they need most in a year in which they claim their goal is to contend.  By doing they so arguably left themselves worse off.

I have many questions for the Brewers.  But for right now, the one foremost on my mind is this: If they are unwilling to spend the money they have on the one area they need most, where exactly is that money going?

The latest roster and payroll projections

The one is going to be short and, well, bitter.  The Brewers did not sign Corey Hart as I had prognosticated and they did not sign James Loney as I had advocated.  In point of fact, they have not signed anyone...at all.  The trade talks with the Mets over Ike Davis have gone nowhere, thankfully, and it doesn't look like there are any other possibilities on the trade market.  Michael Young was a name that came up, but as of yet that seems to have gone nowhere.  For right now, it seems more likely than before that the Brewers will fill from with-in.  I do expect them to sign someone for the pen, maybe two someones.  I think it's likely they do get another position player too, but maybe someone for depth instead of a starter.  But hey, what do I know?  Anyway, here is how I see the roster playing out as of right now.

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)*
1B: Juan Francisco ($1.4 MM)**	BN: Free agent.
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)*	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)*
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)*
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)*
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)*
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)*
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)*
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)*	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.5 MM)**	RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)*
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)*	RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)*
	RP: Will Smith ($500k)* RP: Free Agent

Unless otherwise noted, all figures come from Cots Contracts.

*League minimum

**Arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors

With two open roster spots for bench/first base and the bullpen, I estimate the the payroll to be $80.2 million.  If they were to fill the final two spots from with-in the payroll total would come to $81.2 million.  For reference (also from Cots), the Brewers spent $88,828,333 in 2013 and in $98,150,833 in 2012.

Hunter Morris is not the answer

                With Corey Hart, James Loney, and Logan Morrison off the market the options are running out for the Brewers open spot at first base.  Ike Davis seems to be their top target as of right now, but Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, and Mike Carp are also probably available should the Pirates be able to snipe Davis.  None of these players are slam dunks and each one will cost a player in to acquire.  That has led some people to wonder why Hunter Morris isn’t in play.  The answer is really quite simple if you look past his “2012 Brewers Minor League Player of the Year” season.

                I won’t take that away from him though.  He was pretty good in 2012 at Double-A Huntsville.  He hit 301/357/563 with 28 home runs.  So yeah, if that’s all you’re looking at it seems confusing that he isn’t being talked about more.  Unfortunately for Morris, the Brewers are aware of his contributions before and after that season.  Take a look:

2010 (A):             251/306/436

2011 (A+)*          277/299/461

2013 (AAA) :       247/301/457

*He did get promoted to AA in 2011 but he only played 4 games (17 plate appearances) so I didn’t include those stats.

Another thing to consider: BABIP (batting average on balls in play)

2010:  286

2011:  289 (again not including the 17 PAs at AA)

2012:  342

2013: 280

That 2012 BABIP is so far out of line it’s simply unsustainable.  This is evidenced by a return to the norm in 2013.  The power is real, I'll give him that, but that 2012 "breakout" is an illusion.  This is why Hunter Morris is not being seriously considered.

              I hear a lot people say that if he isn’t ready now at 25, he’ll never be ready.  There is no logic in that assertion.  Morris is below replacement level player right now so why would you want to put him on the Brewers 25 man roster anyway?  Because he’s getting older?  That’s no argument.  Some people take longer to develop.  Morris was just added to the 40-man roster this offseason so he has all 3 options remaining.  That means the Brewers can let him develop for three more seasons if they really wanted to and he clearly needs that time.  I’m sure we’ll see him in Milwaukee at some point this season but it may not be until September.  His performance in 2014 will tell us a lot about his future, but a lot will also depend on who the Brewers do get to play first base.

Brewers draft lottery ticket in Rule 5

                Yesterday the Winter Meetings ended and unfortunately the Brewers were unable to fill their hole at first base.  They didn’t leave entirely empty handed though.  The Rule 5 draft took place yesterday and the Brewers were more active than they have been in recent years.  I won’t pretend to care about the minor league part of the draft, but I am intrigued by their major league selection. 

The Brewers drafted 21 year old Taiwanese left-handed pitcher Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates.  He intriguing not because I think he can be good, though he could be for all I know.  He’s intriguing because I have absolutely no idea what he is at all.  I mean, yes, he’s a left-handed pitcher.  Aside from that, he’s a complete mystery.  This is because he’s only pitched 1 season in professional baseball and that was for the Pirates rookie league club.  He was only eligible because after the Pirates signed him, it was learned that he would need Tommy John surgery.  They voided his original deal and signed him to a lesser contract.  He immediately became eligible for the Rule 5 draft when his original deal was voided.

The way the Rule 5 draft works, the Brewers are going to have to keep Wang on their major league roster for the entire 2014 season or give him back to the Pirates.  There are ways to work around that by having him spend time on the DL with a “convenient” injury, but he would have to spend at least 92 days on the MLB roster.  Should the Brewers find a way to keep him on the roster for 2014, they will then be able to option him normally starting in 2015.  That would give him 3 years to develop in the minors.  I have no idea what his potential is, but the Brewers must think either he can be a quality reliever right now or a starter in the future.  That’s intriguing, especially for a club that has had such trouble developing starters, left-handers double so.

So what are the Brewers supposed to do with arguably the most inexperienced player in the major leagues for a season?  Well, clearly they will have to put him in the bullpen.   Because he’ll only be facing batters once a game, it’ll let him get by with lesser stuff.  That will also limit his impact (positive or negative) on the season.  To further aid him, the Brewers would likely only use him in lower leverage and mop-up situations.  Perhaps they will use him as a left-handed specialist.  (In general I’m against wasting a spot on a LOOGY but I’d make an exception here.)  They have at least one left hander in the pen with Gorzelanny, but he recently had surgery to clean up his shoulder and it’s not guaranteed he’ll be ready when the season starts.  They also have recently acquired Will Smith.  Doug Melvin said they will look at him as a starter in Spring Training and make their decision then.  I can see one of three things happening with Smith.  He could be the fifth starter for the Brewers which would allow Wang to take the LOOGY role.  He could pitch out of the pen and the Brewers could use 2-3 lefties (two of which may only be LOOGYs and that’s scary).  Or, Smith could start in AAA, which would also allow Wang to fill the LOOGY role.

I think there is a solid chance the Brewers take a look at Wang in the spring, don’t like what they see, and give him back to the Pirates before he ever pitches an inning.  Still, if he can survive in the bullpen for a season, he offers a lot of upside.  Or at least I think he does.  Even if he develops into just a back-end starter this was another savvy move by Melvin and the Brewers.  In a season where contending is a longshot at best, I think it’s worth the risk.

Updated roster and payroll projections.

                   With the Winter Meetings coming up next week and after a couple of minor to moderate deals the Brewers have made recently, I decided now would be a good time to update the my projected 25-man roster.  You can find the original here.  Since I wrote that, the non-tender deadline has passed.  As you'll remember Burke Badenhop was traded so the only arb-eligible players left were Marco Estrada and Juan Francisco.  Both were tendered contracts, the total sums of which are to be determined but it's estimated the two combined will cost around $5 million.  In much bigger news, the Brewers recently traded Nori Aoki for LHP Will Smith.  I think that leaves the Brewers with only 2 spots left to fill.  One of those spots should be filled by Corey Hart.  I recently estimated his contract to be around $6 million plus incentives.  Here's where I see the roster now:

 

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2 MM)	BN: Martin Maldonado ($500 k)
1B: Corey Hart ($6 MM)	BN: Juan Francisco ($1.4 MM)
2B: Scooter Gennett ($500 k)	BN: Rickie Weeks ($11 MM)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($10 MM)	BN: Jeff Bianchi ($500 k)
SS: Jean Segura ($500 k)
LF: Khris Davis ($500 k)
CF: Carlos Gomez ($7 MM)	OF: Logan Schafer ($500 k)
RF: Ryan Braun ($12.5 MM)

SP: Kyle Lohse ($11 MM)	RP: Jim Henderson ($500 k)
SP: Yovani Gallardo ($11.5 MM)	RP: Brandon Kintzler ($500 k)
SP: Wily Peralta ($500 K)	RP: Tom Gorzelanny ($2.8 MM)
SP: Marco Estrada ($3.5 MM)	RP: Rob Wooten ($500 k)
SP: Tyler Thornburg ($500 k)	RP: Donovan Hand ($500 k)
	RP: Will Smith ($500k) RP: Free Agent

                   With one roster spot open in the bullpen, I estimate the payroll to be approximately $86.2 million.  That's only $1.2 million more than last year.  It's here I'll remind you that every club is receiving an additional $25 million from Nat'l TV deals.  Don't expect them to use all of that money on the payroll.  They have other things to spend on like the First Year Player Draft, international signings, ballpark improvements, scouting system, etc.  Even then, they should have at least another $5 million left to spend.

                    The Brewers will have several decent or better internal options to fill that last roster spot, but I discussed depth here and I believe it's actually in their best interest to sign a free agent.  The Brewers are reported to be looking for a reliever with closing experience and for better or worse, as you can see by my payroll estimate, they'll have plenty of money to spend.  Though, I'm not advocating spending $10 million on a "proven closer."  Closers aren't things.  I've already discussed what I might do with bullpen here.  I still believe there is an outside chance they buy another starter, in which case Thornburg would move to the pen.  It's really slim, and with what's left on the market, I'm heavily leaning towards giving the 5th rotation spot to Thornburg.  The Brewers have stated they'll try Will Smith out of the rotation in Spring Training, but I think he'll have to do a lot to take the spot from Thornburg.  Either way, one of them will likely be in the rotation and the other in the pen.

                      I think it's possible the Brewers could trade one or more of Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, and Rickie Weeks.  The problem with Lohse and Gallardo is finding decent replacements, assuming the plan is to compete.  If the plan were to rebuild then just trade them all and don't worry about it.  It's not though.  They do have several internal options (Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, Fiers, Burgos), but none are as good as either pitcher.  I'm not terribly intrigued by any of the remaining free agents either.  At this point I don't expect either to be traded before the season starts.  They might be on the block by midseason though.

                     The problem with Ramirez and Weeks are their salaries, though I think Ramirez's is less of an obstacle than some believe since $6 million is deferred.  The other problem with Weeks is his performance (or lack thereof) the past two season and to a lesser extent, his hamstring injury.  I will point out that the Yankees are now lacking a second baseman and third baseman (once A-Rod is suspended).  I'm not saying that Ramirez and Weeks are the perfect fit, just that they could be a fit.  I previously mentioned the Yankees as a possible trade partner for Ramirez, but Weeks could make sense too as he can be platooned with Kelly Johnson.  Payroll towards the luxury tax is factored through contract AAV.  So, while Ramirez technically makes $16 million next year, and even though $6 million is deferred, his AAV is $12 million dollars.  Weeks' AAV is just under $10 million.  That's less than what A-Rod or Cano would make individually.  That gives them tons of money to spend while filling two spots reasonably well.  It's the very definition of a longshot, but I think the Brewers would be very open to shedding the payroll.  The main problem is finding a replacement at third.  

                      This year's Winter Meetings should prove to be quite boring.  I honestly don't expect any more trades, but there will be talk.  I do think the Brewers will re-sign Hart before the meetings are over.  Hart is a family man so I imagine the latest would be by Christmas.  If the past is any indication, Melvin will wait before he signs his reliever with closer experience.  This offseason has developed crazy fast though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see all the moves the Brewers make for the rest of it, happen next week.  All two of them.